1. Day 2 Session 1 Basic Statistics Cathy Mulhall South East Public Health Observatory Spring 2009

2. Overview Types of data Summarising data The Normal distribution Confidence intervals Hypothesis testing P-values

3. Types of Data Numerical (Quantitative) Counted or measured Discrete Continuous Categorical (Qualitative) Characterises a quality Nominal Ordered

4. Numerical data Discrete Integers (whole numbers) Examples Number of people Number of teeth Continuous Any value on a scale Examples Height Weight

5. Categorical data Nominal No natural order Examples Gender Ethnic group Ordered Have a natural order Examples Socio-economic group Cancer Staging (I – IV)

6. Which types of data are the following? Screening test result Parity (no. of children) Pain scale Age at last birthday Exact age Alive at 6 months? Number of bed days in hospital –categorical nominal –numerical discrete –categorical ordered –numerical discrete –numerical continuous –categorical nominal –numerical discrete

7. Summarising numerical data 1. Location (central tendency) Mean, median, mode 2. Spread (variation) Range, percentiles, standard deviation

8. Location Mean – sum of all obs / number of obs Median – value that divides the dist in 2, odd no. of obs - middle obs even no. of obs - mean of central pair Mode – value that occurs most frequently

9. Mean and median? a)3, 4, 5, 6, 7 b)9,10, 20, 21 c)1, 2, 3, 4, 990 Mean 25/5 60/4 1000/5 Median 5 15 3

10. Variation Range = highest value – lowest value Interquartile range = upper quartile – lower quartile (i.e. 3 rd quartile – 1 st quartile) Percentile – value below which a given proportion of the data lies

11. Variance Step 1: Calculate ‘Deviations’ = the difference between each observation and the mean of the data Step 2: Square these Deviations Step 3: Average the Squared Deviations … this is the Variance (Strictly, divide by n-1, not n)

12. Standard Deviation Step 4: Take the square root of the Variance (this returns the statistic to the same units as the data) … this is the Standard Deviation SD measures the amount of variability in the population

13. Summarising categorical data Percentages and rates Covered in Day 3 – Introduction to Analysis session

14. Normal distribution Symmetric Bell shaped Standard Normal Distribution Mean = 0 SD = 1 Represents the distribution of values observed if whole population was studied

15. Normal distribution Mean, Median, Mode

16. Normal Distribution, changes in mean

17. Normal Distribution, changes in SD

18. Normal distribution Defined by complex math formulae Published tables listing the area under the Standard Normal Curve Standard N scores – Z scores Used to calculate area between 2 points 95% of dist lies within +/- 2 SD of mean Known as ‘reference range’

19. Normal distribution

20. Importance of N distribution Many biological variables are N dist or can be made N dist by transformation Many statistical tests require data to be N distributed If data skewed need to transform 1/X, Log (X), sqrt (X)

21. Symmetric and Skewed Data

22. Population Samples Bias Deviation from true result Minimised by random sampling Random Error In any random sample there will be sampling variation Minimised by random sampling

23. Sampling Variability Hypothesis TestsConfidence Intervals

24. Standard Error Standard deviation measures the amount of variability in the sample estimate It indicates how closely the population mean or proportion is likely to be to the sample estimate

25. Standard Error Mean, Proportion,

26. Confidence Intervals Based on the Normal distribution, 95% sample estimates will be within 1.96 SEs from the true value For 95% of samples this interval will contain the true population value For any one sample there is a 95% chance that the interval contains the true value

27. Confidence Intervals 5% risk (or 1 in 20 chance) than true value lies outside the 95 % interval Tells us how imprecise our estimate is Provides a range of values within which the true (population) value is likely to lie Narrow 95% CI precise estimate Wide 95% CI imprecise estimate

28. Self-reported smoking status in women (%), by ethnic group with 95% confidence intervals ( England, 2004)

29. What can we say about the true smoking prevalence for the general population? For which ethnic groups is the prevalence of smoking significantly different from 25%? Is the prevalence of smoking significantly different between the Black Caribbean and Black African populations? Is the prevalence of smoking significantly different between the Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations? Interpretation of confidence intervals

30. 95% confident that the true smoking prevalence for the general population is between 22.5 and 24.5% For Black African, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Chinese the prevalence of smoking is significantly different from 25% The prevalence of smoking is significantly different between Black Caribbean and Black African groups Cannot be sure that the prevalence of smoking is significantly different between the Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations Interpretation of confidence intervals

31. Non overlapping intervals indicative of real differences Overlapping intervals need to be considered with caution Need to be careful about using confidence intervals as a means of testing. The smaller the sample size, the wider the confidence interval

32. Hypothesis Tests Assess strength of evidence for an association Test statistic calculated using population value, sample estimate and stnd. error Null hypothesis; no true difference between groups in population from which samples arose

33. Hypothesis Tests If the null hypothesis is true, what are the chances of getting as big (or bigger) as that observed Uses population value sample estimate and Standard Error Null hypothesis; no true difference between groups in population from which samples arose

34. Illustration of acceptance regions

35. P-values probability of obtaining a difference as large (or larger) as that observed, if there is really no difference in the population from which the samples came, i.e. if the null hypothesis is true

36. P-values Small p-value (p<0.05) unlikely that the sample arose for a pop where null is true Evidence for a real difference in pop Large p-value (p>0.05) likely that the sample arose for a pop where null is true No evidence to reject the null hypothesis

37. Interpretation of P-values Source; Essential medical statistics By Betty R. Kirkwood, Jonathan A. C. Sterne

38. Quiz A person was defined as hypertensive if their diastolic blood pressure was > 90 mmHg & their systolic was > 140 mmHg. The variable ‘hypertensive’ is: a)Paired continuous b)Nominal categorical c)Skewed d)Continuous

39. What conclusion can be drawn from this figure? a)The mean is less than the standard deviation b)The mean is higher than the median c)There are fewer observations below the mean than above it d)The mean is approximately equal to the median

40. Based on a sample of 153 newborns, the 95% CI for the pop mean birth weight was between 3181 and 3319 grams: a)95% of the individual birth weights are between 3181 & 3319 grams b)The true mean for the 153 newborns is probably between 3181 & 3319 grams c)The mean of the population from which the 153 newborns came is between 3181 & 3319 grams d)There is a 95% chance that the true mean of the population from which the 153 newborns came is included in the range 3181 - 3319 grams

41. Useful Resource http://www.apho.org.uk/apho/techbrief.htm

42. Finding out more www.healthknowledge.org.uk

43. Conclusions Cover some basic statistical concepts Gain insight into what they mean Gain confidence in understanding basic statistics

44. Basic Statistics Exercise Exercise 1 - Calculate some summary statistics for class size data in spreadsheet Exercise 2 – using the CI template provided calculate the 95% CI for the mean class size from exercise 1

45. Basic Statistics Exercise To download file go to http://www.sepho.org.ukhttp://www.sepho.org.uk and search on “intelligence training” then Day 2 or go to http://www.sepho.org.uk/viewResource.aspx?id= 12272 Useful Excel Functions AVERAGE, MEDIAN, MODE, QUARTILE, PERCENTILE, VAR, STDEV