1. OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy

2. Overview Introduction – The Class: COMP 410 – Our Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy – Project Motivation – Our Mission – The Team Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

3. About COMP 410 “Software Engineering Methodology” Design class satisfying computer science Bachelors of Science Decree capstone requirement Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer! Student driven – no problem sets or lectures

4. Our Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non-partisan national energy solutions Leadership – John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO – Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director http://www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org/

5. Project Motivation U.S. has no long-term national energy policy CFAE believes this could be disastrous CFAE wants a software tool that can simulate the long term effects of policies (or lack thereof)

6. Our Mission Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios Make the results accessible to the public

7. The Teams User Interface Team – Jesus Cortez, Team Leader – Robyn Moscowitz – Tung Nguyen – Narae Kim Simulation Team – Ashrith Pillarisetti, Team Leader – Linge Dai – Mina Yao

8. The Teams Modeling Team – Irina Patrikeeva, Team Leader – Elizabeth Fudge – Ace Emil – Narae Kim Framework Team – Weibo He, Team Leader – Jarred Payne – Yunming Zhang – Xiangjin Zou

9. Command Squad Robert Brockman II – Project Manager James Morgensen – Architect Daniel Podder – Integration Master Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master

10. Overview Introduction Simulation Framework – Theoretical Design – System Capabilities Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

11. Theoretical Design Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs Functional modules can be “composited” – Encapsulate components of model – Allows composite modules with other modules inside. – Arbitrarily complicated models can be created – Diagram!

12. System Capabilities Supports many simultaneous users Scales with load Basic use case – View model, plan, precomputed results Authenticated use case – Edit plan, recompute results, save results Expert Authenticated use case (if working) System Administration use case (if working) – Publish results (if working)

13. Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans – Model Implementation – Viewing the Results – Worst, Average, and Best Case Scenarios Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

14. Model Implementation Four main components drive the simulation – Producer Module – Consumer Module – Infrastructure Module – Environmental Module

15. System-block diagram

16. The Model Details Producer simulates – Production of electricity from 8 sources Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydroelectric Wind Solar Geothermal Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.) – Production of transportation fuel from 2 sources Oil (petroleum) Biofuels

17. The Model Details Infrastructure module simulates – Transport of electricity and fuel – Exchanges the price with Producer module Consumer module simulates – Electricity and fuel demand from consumers Environmental module simulates – The net pollution emitted by Producer, infrastructure and consumer modules

18. Simulation Design The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values or assumptions Based on the assumptions Producer calculates net production of electricity and fuel User can provide events that change assumptions and affect the energy future generation

19. User Assumptions User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation, including (but not limited to): – How much electricity and fuel is produced from each source – Net electricity and pollution produced from each source (by changing power plants capacity) – Electricity lost due to transmission – Cost of production from each source – Population growth rate

20. Worst-Case Plan Simulation runs with default values (2010 data) No new power plants are built Nothing is done to reduce pollution Population and energy demand grows while supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants

21. Average-Case Plan User builds new energy sources Producing more electricity from cleaner renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand Environmental pollution is reduced No technological breakthroughs (capacity and cost of production do not drastically change)

22. Best-Case Plan Supply meets demand Energy is produced from clean renewable sources at affordable price Pollution is reduced

23. Comparison with Other Models Pros – No complicated equations – Directly shows user changes – Easy to use and test various assumptions – Unbiased Cons – May not accurately represent reality

24. Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features – Changing the Plans – Changing the Model – System Administration Conclusion Questions

25. Changing the Plans Edit Plan Recompute Results Save Results

26. Changing the Model

27. System Administration Adding Users Changing Privileges Publishing – Results – Plans – Models

28. Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion – Implications for Energy Policy Development – Acknowledgements Questions

29. Implications for Energy Policy Development

30. Acknowledgements CFAE: John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister Professors: Dr. Steven Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner TAs: – Dennis Qian – Max Grossman – Milind Chabbi – Rahul Kumar Microsoft

31. Acknowledgements Smalley Institute: – Dr. Wade Adams – Dr. Carter Kittrell Dr. Richard Johnson Steven Wolff Jeffrey Bridge Jeffrey Hokanson Stamatios George Mastrogiannis

32. QUESTIONS

33. References EIA etc.