1. Neville Koop, Meteorology and Climate Advisor, SPREP

8. 9 to 12 named cyclones are expected for the 2012 – 2013 season. Tropical cyclone activity east of the International Dateline is expected to be normal, with above normal activity for Niue and Tonga during the second half of the season. Most countries west of the International Date Line, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Fiji are likely to experience close to normal or slightly above normal activity because of ENSO-neutral conditions. The main TC genesis region is expected to lie within a band between 12 – 14°S (and from the eastern Solomon Islands to Wallis & Futuna).

9. The forecast of normal or above normal activity for islands like New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga indicates 2 or 3 tropical cyclones interacting with each of those countries during the season can be expected. At least two or more severe tropical cyclones (Category 3 or higher) could occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during the season with at least one likely to reach Category 4. (See http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/intensity.shtml) While Category 5 strength TCs have not been prominent in past ENSO neutral seasons, the most recent analog suggests a TC of this intensity is still possible. All communities should remain alert and prepared for such an event.

10. Seven analog tropical cyclone seasons (1978/79; 1979/80; 1980/81; 1990/91; 1996/97; 2001/02; 2003/04) have been identified. Note that the small number of analog seasons relates to the brevity of the high-quality TC data set (only 42 years) and the limited number of similar analogs to this season.