1. 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

2. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 1 1 Introduction Worldwide Commercial Launches 2006 forecast: poised for an increase in NGSO launch activity NGSO forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads –Payloads that generate launch demand –Typically no secondary or dummy payloads Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

3. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 2 2 Satellite Forecast 160 satellites 2006–2015; average of 16.0 per year 11% increase compared to last year 144 in 2005 forecast, 106 in 2004, 80 in 2003 2006–2015 by sector 61% International Science/Other 27% Telecommunications 12% Commercial Remote Sensing

4. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 3 3 Launch Forecast 69 total launches 2006–2015 8% increase compared to last year 64 launches in 2005, 51 in 2004 and 2003, 63 in 2002 Average of 6.9 launches per year 3.6 medium-heavy launch vehicles 3.3 small launch vehicles 2006–2015 by sector Int’l Science/Other 48 launches Remote Sensing 14 launches Telecommunications 7 launches

5. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 4 4 Reasons for Near-Term Pile Up 1) An increase in the number of governments, companies, and non- profit organizations interested in NGSO satellites 2) The availability of low-cost launch vehicles that can service the small satellite market 3) Financial and technical delays for various systems that have caused manifests to back up 4) A confluence of planned replacements of commercial remote sensing and telecommunications systems Demand will likely not match actual launches but will fly eventually Forecast of 13 launches in 2006 and 14 in 2007 Many systems are new to the market Development delays- financial and technical Historical schedule slips Only one commercial NGSO launch in 2006 as of May 24

6. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 5 5 Near-Term Manifest TBA – To Be Announced

7. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 6 6 Satellite and Launch Forecast 2006–2015 More satellites and launches in near term Most of the 2006 forecast increase is from International Science/Other Visibility into the market fades four years ahead Historical averaging used for International Scientific Number of medium-to-heavy launches increased by one launch per year over last year’s forecast (+2,268 kg to LEO for medium-heavy class) Used for more remote sensing and international science/other missions Ratio of satellites to launch vehicles is 2.3 to 1

8. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 7 7 Near-Term Satellite Mass 14 more satellites under 200 kg compared to 2005 forecast 5 more satellites over 1,200 kg compared to 2005 forecast

9. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 8 8 Trends in NGSO Forecast More “Other” satellites 5 SAR-Lupe radar satellites for the German Defense Ministry 4 demonstration launches for Bigelow inflatable space habitat Several systems making progress to enter future forecasts Globalstar Issued contract for design studies for next generation system in 2006 Two launches coming up (previously built spares) Iridium Studying a new system this year Replacement plan with launches of ~1 or 2 per year over period ~10 years Could award satellite manufacturing contracts in 2008 or 2009 Satellite Radio for Europe could be in NGSO Question of when, not if Orbital commercial human space flight too early to forecast America’s Space Prize NASA COTS program for International Space Station resupply/return Demonstration missions may be uncrewed

10. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 9 9 Before Hurricane Katrina Source: Iridium Satellite Iridium Voice Traffic in the U.S. Gulf Region August 19, 2005

11. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 10 After Hurricane Katrina Source: Iridium Satellite Iridium Voice Traffic in the U.S. Gulf Region September 2, 2005 Iridium traffic increased 3,000 percent Globalstar and Iridium activated about 20,000 satellite phones into region

12. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 11 Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison

13. NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast May 24, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 12 Available on the FAA/AST website http://ast.faa.gov