1. DARPA Dr. Douglas C. Schmidt, DARPA/ITO Thoughts on Maintaining IT Superiority in the Face of Commoditization Saturday, October 24, 2015

2. D. Schmidt DARPA 2 High-performance, real-time, fault- tolerant, and secure systems Adaptive & reflective autonomous distributed embedded systems Power-aware ad hoc, mobile, distributed, & embedded systems Middleware, Frameworks, & Components Patterns & Pattern Languages Open- source & Standards Addressing the COTS “Crisis” However, this trend presents many vexing R&D challenges for mission- critical DoD systems, e.g., Inflexibility and lack of QoS Security & global competition Distributed systems increasingly must reuse commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware & software i.e., COTS is essential to R&D success Why DARPA should care : Recent advances in COTS software technology can help to fundamentally reshape distributed embedded system R&D Despite IT commodization, progress in COTS hardware & software is often not applicable for mission-critical DoD distributed embedded systems

3. D. Schmidt DARPA 3 There are multiple COTS layers & research/ business opportunities Historically, mission-critical apps were built directly atop hardware The domain-specific services layer is where system integrators can provide the most value & derive the most benefits The Evolution of COTS Standards-based COTS middleware helps: Leverage hardware/software technology advances Evolve to new environments & requirements & OS This was extremely tedious, error-prone, & costly over system life-cycles QoS specification & enforcement Real-time features & optimizations Layered resource management Transparent power management Early COTS middleware lacked: Advanced R&D has address some, but by no means all, of these issues

4. D. Schmidt DARPA 4 More emphasis on integration rather than programming Increased technology convergence & standardization Mass market economies of scale for technology & personnel More disruptive technologies & global competition Lower priced--but often lower quality-- hardware & software components The decline of internally funded R&D Potential for complexity cap in next- generation complex systems Consequences of COTS & IT Commoditization Not all trends bode well for long-term competitiveness of traditional R&D leaders Ultimately, competitiveness will depend upon longer-term R&D efforts on complex distributed & embedded systems

5. D. Schmidt DARPA 5 The DARPA/ITO Embedded Systems Family of Programs SEC Hybrid, adaptive, control & computation Hybrid, adaptive, control & computation Quorum Quality-of-service & translucent layers MoBIES Design technology & software CAD ARMS Adaptive & reflective middleware Adaptive & reflective middleware PCES Composable embedded systems NEST Deeply networked embedded systems PCA Polymorphous computing architecture

6. D. Schmidt DARPA 6 “ Everything gets cheaper forever ” John Chambers, CEO Cisco Systems Quality team Teamwork Drive Change No technology religion Empowerment Frugality Market Transitions Stretch Goals Trust/Fair/ Integity Open Communication Cisco Culture Why COTS? Commercial & military suppliers are increasingly driven by competitive forces e.g., time-to-market/mission pressures & heavy competition for engineering talent COTS can contribute systematic reuse, continuous innovation, & cost reduction via 3 rd party life-cycle management COTS can potentially reduce V&V costs Lack of realistic alternatives… Key COTS R&D Challenges Key Technology Inhibitors to Success Integration woes COTS components are often not designed for composition V&V and security woes COTS components rarely designed for certification or high assurance Integration woes COTS components are often not designed for composition V&V and security woes COTS components rarely designed for certification or high assurance Inefficient feedback loops e.g., “binary-only,” closed-source deployment hampers usability COTS is not always standard Non-standard COTS can greatly increase “refresh” costs Inefficient feedback loops e.g., “binary-only,” closed-source deployment hampers usability COTS is not always standard Non-standard COTS can greatly increase “refresh” costs

7. D. Schmidt DARPA 7 Emerging trend in commodity IT market: Standard Open-source COTS Open-source is a highly scalable and cost effective software process based on the following observations: Validation scales, development does not “End-to-end argument” applies to software i.e., more resources at the “edges” Benefits for Developers Standards help to ensure longer-term viability of technology investments Standard COTS helps control life-cycle costs Standard open-source COTS helps to focus expertise, e.g.: Leverage “everyone’s a beta-tester” syndrome Resolves “COTS vs. ownership” conundrum in system acquisition Benefits of Open-source for Researchers: Leverage existing technology base for rapid prototyping of new technologies Promote broad visibility of novel R&D activities Accelerate the pace & impact of technology transfer Lead, rather than follow, COTS software trends

8. D. Schmidt DARPA 8 New opportunity: High Confidence Open-source Software Systems EMACS, ACE, & USENET servers COTS desktop productivity tools Linux, Apache, GNU tools, & TAO Solaris & Windows NT Next-generation middleware Flight critical software Open-source Closed-source No Spec Informal Spec Formal Spec Open-source standard COTS is now mainstream at certain layers Bold Stroke Key Themes We know how to build open-source software quickly and cheaply Quality and security remain key challenges, however… Open-source enables whitebox V&V techniques e.g., analysis methods can extend across layers & thru components Reuse of middleware components can help amortize V&V efforts No need to (re)start from scratch Middleware is often written in relatively “civilized” languages cf. operating system kernels Middleware defines natural module boundaries for specification & testing e.g., define QoS properties via QDLs

9. D. Schmidt DARPA 9 How DARPA is Making a Difference in COTS Revolutionary changes in software process: Open-source, refactoring, extreme programming (XP), advanced V&V techniques Standards-based QoS-enabled Middleware: Pluggable service & micro-protocol components & reusable “semi-complete” application frameworks Why middleware-centric reuse works 1.Hardware advances e.g., faster CPUs & networks 2.Software/system architecture advances e.g., inter-layer optimizations & meta-programming mechanisms 3.Economic necessity e.g., global competition for customers & engineers Patterns and Pattern Languages: Generate software architectures by capturing recurring structures & dynamics & by resolving design forces

10. D. Schmidt DARPA 10 Concluding Remarks There will be little or no incentive for industry to improve COTS hardware & software as long as: 1.Most users emphasize price & features over quality & scalability 2.Vendors continue to make $$$ selling lower-quality products inexpensively & en masse 3.There’s no credible competition or alternatives 4.Fundamental R&D funding levels continue to decline relative to venture capital How DARPA can help the US maintain IT superiority Ensure credible competition & alternatives, e.g., Support R&D to evolve the confidence of commodity IT Guide, rather than follow (or ignore) COTS maturation & standardization Raise the bar for DoD contractors who participate in DARPA R&D programs Stabilize funding of fundamental IT R&D challenges for complex systems