1. 1 Weather Information -- Collaborative Forecasting Extended Range Forecasting (CCFP) Joint Aviation Weather Units (JAWS) Friends and Partners (FPAWs) NBAA, LasVegas, NV 13 October 2004 Dave Rodenhuis Senior Meteorologist, ATCSCC System Operations Services, ATO

2. 2 …a forecast of areas of convection and thunderstorms that meet a minimum threshold of intensity and stated forecaster confidence; includes coverage, tops, tendency, movement, with lead times of 2/4/6hours in advance. The CCFP Forecast is…… collaboration the forecast the application. Extended Range Forecasting The CCFP Forecast 1.

3. 3 1. Extended Range Forecasting Example (14 SEP 2004) VALID TIME 17 GMT 19 GMT 21 GMT 23 GMT ISSUE TIME 15 GMT17GMT 19 GMT

4. 4 1. Extended Range Forecasting Accomplishments 1999 - Prototype – 2 forecasts/day 2000 - Initiate operational forecast unit at AWC – 4 forecasts/day; 16 hours/day; 7 months/year – first User Needs Analysis 2001 - Improve training – Technical Briefing (training) module – 6 forecasts/day; 24 hours/day 7 months per year 2002 - Increase forecast frequency – suspend Outlook for Convective SIGMETs – 12 forecasts/day; 24 hours/day, 8 months/year 2003 - Expand to Canadian Airspace – established Weather Applications Work Group (WAWG) – first Statement of User Needs – defined the forecast target – reduction to 11 forecasts/day 2004 - Improve Verification – ABC: accuracy, bias (precision) and consistency

5. 5 A Program of Attraction Rapid Prototyping Collaborative Forecasting Forecast and Applications Monitoring and User Feedback Continual Evolution 1.Extended Range Forecasting Concepts

6. 6 1.Extended Range Forecasting CCFP Forecast Skill AccuracyBiasConsistency PoD(yes)(Precision)--- 20020.240.85--- 20030.311.080.67 2004*0.311.020.66 Seasonal scores for all lead times. (J.Mahoney, NOAA, FSL) *(1Mar-3Aug 2004)

7. 7 1. Extended Range Forecasting Contemporary Reports - CCFP Statement of User Needs, CCFP 2004. WAWG Report, V7.3, Rev., 15 April 2004, K.Mullen, Ed., 32 pp. Continual Evolution of CCFP - User Needs for Extended Range Prediction. T.Fahey and D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct 2004. Program Management for the CCFP. D.Sims and D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct. 2004. Operational Feedback Reports to Providers of Aviation’s CCFP.D.Torbert and D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct. 2004. International Collaboration Providing Seamless, Cross-Border Aviation Weather Products to Facilitate Traffic Management. L.Mercier, et.al., ARAM, Oct. 2004. More Intuitive Graphics for the CCFP. D.Sims, et.al., ARAM, Oct 2004. Defining Observational Fields for Verification of the CCFP. J.Mahoney, et.al., ARAM, Oct 2004.

8. 8 1.Extended Range Forecasting Expectations (2005+) Applications – More intuitive graphics (format) – CONOPS for weather and TFM (integration) – Evaluation (value) – (strengthen) Verification (quality) The Forecast – Automation of the short-range forecast – NWP for the extended range forecast. – Probabilistic forecast format Collaboration – Web conferencing

9. 9 1. Extended Range Forecasting More Intuitive Graphics Current CCFP Color = Coverage TUT Proposal Color = Coverage Fill = Confidence WxAps Proposal Color = Confidence Fill = Coverage

10. 10 1. Extended Range Forecasting More Intuitive Graphics (9/29)

11. 11 Joint Aviation Weather Units The CWSUs Initiated in 1979 (25 years old) 20 units at ARTCCs in the CONUS (84 FTEs) Operated by the NWS; funded by the FAA Current mission is advisory and nowcasting to support the ARTCC and operational sites FAA evaluation (1993-5) NWS modernization (1996) NRC Recommendations (1995) NTSB Recommendations (1995, 2001) FAA Functional Audit (site review; 2003) Guidelines for Restructuring-CWSUs (ATT, 2003) Assessment of Current Operations (ATT,2003) A Concept of Operations for Enhancing Weather Support to the NAS (NWS, 2003) 2.

12. 12 2.Joint Aviation Weather Units Current Configuration

13. 13 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units New Mission …to be cognizant of hazardous weather information covering all phases of flight, participate in strategic planning, and support the transition to tactical operations. The mission is defined by the needs of the national system of traffic management that meet objectives of safety, efficiency, and security.

14. 14 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units New Configuration

15. 15 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units Contemporary Plans and Reports A Vision for Improved Weather Forecast Services - Restructuring Plans for the CWSUs. D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct. 2004. A Concept of Operations for an Integrated Weather Forecast Process to Support the NAS. K.Johnston and J.Ladd, ARAM, Oct.2004. Mission and CONOPS for the JAWS. DRAFT, System Operations, ATO, DRAFT, October 2004.

16. 16 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units New Responsibilities TRACON Forecasts and TDA TDA = Tactical Decision Aids  impacts on capacity Interactive Weather Briefing (IWB) Route Forecasts and TDA Continue to contribute to CCFP. A unified NWS aviation forecast -- (WFOs, AWC, JAWS)

17. 17 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units Responsibilities

18. 18 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units New Interactive Weather Briefing

19. 19 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units New Value current plannedtransition

20. 20 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units Expectations (FY05) Prove the Concept of IWB 1.Prototype Test: Hourly Hub Forecasts and TDA. 2.Prototype Test: TRACON Forecast and Capacity/Weather Briefing (NWS) 3.Prototype Test: Delivery System Statement of User Requirements Convene Joint Transition Team Convene User Design Team Write the Implementation Plan (NWS)

21. 21 2. Joint Aviation Weather Units Expectations (JAWS) 1.New mission and responsibilities 2.New service hours and siting 3.National standards 4.Interactive Weather Briefings 5.New products 6.Supporting hardware/software/comms 7.New intramural collaboration 8.New extramural dissemination 9.New training (CRITICAL ISSUE #3) 10. New program management (CRIT ISSUE #2) 11. Improved resource management (CRIT ISSUE #1)

22. 22 Progress in Collaborative Forecasting Extended Range Forecasting (CCFP) Joint Aviation Weather Units (JAWS)  Forecast collaboration (Producers)  Skillful forecasts (A..B..C..)  Users Applications to TFM (CAPACITY: safety and efficiency)