1. Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz Pollen emission in COSMO-ART COSMO User Workshop 16.12.2010 Katrin Zink MeteoSwiss eye of science www.ambrosiainfo.de On the example of ragweed (Ambrosia)

2. 2 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink The next 12 minutes... Numerical pollen forecasts... Courtesy E. Gentilini http://todaysfacilitymanager.com Courtesy A. Pauling

3. 3 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink http://todaysfacilitymanager.com What‘s the problem with ragweed? Highly allergenic. Losses in the agricultural industries. Threat to biodiversity. Spreading rapidly in Europe. none Very low Low Moderate High Very high 19902005 Courtesy S. Jäger, EPI http://view.stern.de http://www.beatenbergbilder.ch

4. 4 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Pollen forecasts nowadays Pollen measurements Weather forecasts Seasonal trends Low spatial resolution. Pollen measurements not available on a daily basis. Long-range transport cannot be taken into account. Modeling the dispersion of pollen with a numerical weather forecast system! www.pollenundallergie.ch

5. 5 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Numerical pollen forecasts: What do we need? 1.The spatial distribution of the plant (= pollen sources). 2.A NWP model system  COSMO-ART 3.A formula that describes the emission process of the pollen. 4.A model that predicts start (and end) of the pollen season. Courtesy E. Gentilini

6. 6 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Ragweed distribution in Europe Problems with ragweed: Annual plant  plant surveys not up-to-date Data in surveys often only ‚yes‘  no information about occupied area or number of plants Courtesy E. Gentilini Invasive plant  the plant hasn‘t covered its potential distribution area yet (land use categories are difficult to use) Different importance in different countries/regions  surveys are patchy

7. 7 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink COSMO-ART ART = Aerosols and Reactive Tracegases Developed at the KIT (B. and H. Vogel). Online coupled: ART can also influence COSMO. Includes also a pollen module. Pollen are emitted, transported and deposited.

8. 8 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink What influences pollen emission? Biological factors... are there pollen available in the flowers? Meteorological factors... can the pollen be entrained into the atmosphere?

9. 9 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Biological aspects

10. 10 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Biological aspects Seasonal cycle : Courtesy A. Pauling

11. 11 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Biological aspects Temperature :

12. 12 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Biological aspects Relative humidity :

13. 13 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Meteorological aspects Threshold friction velocity: Shao and Lu (2000) Characteristic velocity: Moeng and Sullivan (1994) Wind factor for emission, modified from Helbig et al. (2004):

14. 14 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink First simulations... Emissions are too small!

15. 15 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Outlook Tuning of the emission formula with values found in literature. Adjustment of the mathematical functions describing the biological factors of emission. Producing a distribution map for ragweed (done by the University of Lausanne). Running the model for an entire pollen season. Fuzzy verification (using pollen measurements) and comparison with the existing formula for trees.

16. 16 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Summary Numerical pollen forecasts require: A weather forecast system extended for simulating pollen concentration. Available: COSMO-ART A distribution map of the plant species. Ragweed: will be done at the University of Lausanne. A formula describing the pollen release from the plants into the atmosphere. My PhD! A model that predicts start and end of the pollen season. Will be part of the emission parameterization.

17. 17 COSMO User Workshop, 16.12.2010 | Katrin Zink Questions? Thank you for your attention! www.ambrosiainfo.deEye of science