32. Media Research The time: 1932 The place: Iowa
Event: Election of Sect’y of State
Who: Ola Babcock Miller
George Gallop’s Mother-In-Law
FIRST POLITICAL POLL

33. The Surveying Industry
$1 billion dollar a year business
Gallup -Institute of American Public Opinion
Now about 300 surveying companies
Clients: corporations, candidates, media

34. Gallop’s Method at first
“quota sampling”
1936 Presidential Campaign
He predicted FDR’s victory over Alf Landon
1948 Dewey lost to Truman & Gallop realized that he was 5.3% off in his prediction.

35. Quota Sampling Determine total population Determine key groups
Sample groups proportionately

36. Quota sampling example
Total population 100,000
Urban males 40,000
Urban females 30,000
Rural males ,000
Rural females 12, Others ,000
sample size: 400
urban males 100
urban females 75
rural males 38
rural females 30

37. Gallop’s New Method Probability Sampling
“like making soup”
Four Factors:
sample size
sample selection
margin of error
confidence level

38. Sample Selection Magic number = 384 Total population being studied = n
“Interval” = n / 384
Examples top of p. 328
10,000 students / 384 = every 26th student (interval)

39. Probability Sampling Key Variables
Sample size
The number of people interviewed
Sample selection
How people are drawn to be interviewed
Margin of error
Percentage survey may be off mark
Confidence level
Degree of certainty about accuracy

40. Evaluating Surveys Associated Press Checklist
How many people interviewed?
How were they selected?
When was survey taken?
What was margin of error?
How was poll conducted?
Mail? Phone? Door to door?
How were questions worded?
What was the question sequence?

41. Sample Size for 95% Confidence Level
Population Size
Infinity
500,000
100,000
50,000
10,000
5,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Sample Size
384
383
381
370
357
341
322
278

42. Margin of Error for Various Sample Sizes
For population size
Sample Size
384
600
1,067
2,401
9,605
of infinity:
Margin of Error
5% points
4% points
3% points
2% points
1% point

43. Criticisms of Polling
Polls can influence undecided voters – Bandwagon effect
Politicians watch the polls too much, rather than just doing what’s right.

44. Gallup’s reply
“George Gallop, who died in 1984… (replied that)…good surveys give voice to the ‘inarticulate minority’ that legislators otherwise might not hear.”

45. Measuring Audience Size
Print media – Audit Bureau of Circulations
Broadcast media – audience surveys
interviews
diaries
meters

46. Broadcast ratings Began in 1929 – Archibald Cross, radio
1940’s – Nielsen – demographics: age and gender groups
1950’s Nielson moved into TV ratings