4. Environmental, cultural and historical damages To ecosystems (marine life, cays, reef, natural reserves, ecological parks, etc.)To ecosystems (marine life, cays, reef, natural reserves, ecological parks, etc.) to archaeological sites and cultural heritageto archaeological sites and cultural heritage Assign an economic value to these losses in terms of:Assign an economic value to these losses in terms of: –intervention to redress damage –environmental services lost (for the period of recovery) –assets lost

16. Overall economic impact (on the basis of expected performance ex ante of the event and the measurement made by the mission of post-facto effects), indicating:(on the basis of expected performance ex ante of the event and the measurement made by the mission of post-facto effects), indicating: –impact on macroeconomic variables (such as GDP, external/fiscal balances, etc.),and –projected reconstruction needs in the short/medium term

18. SUMMARY OF DAMAGES

19. The summary data on direct and indirect damage indicates that –the most affected sectors are the productive ones: –tourism and agriculture represent over 47 per cent of the direct damage measured. –Total damage to the economic sectors is estimated as 59 per cent of total damage –Losses of infrastructure account for about 16 per cent of total damage. Their repair or replacement must be a priority as they perform a generator function to economic and social activity nation-wide.

20. KEITH’S IMPACT ON BELIZE ECONOMY

21. KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP

24. Reconstruction strategy and priorities Definition of a mitigation and reconstruction strategyDefinition of a mitigation and reconstruction strategy Capital losses and reconstruction funds neededCapital losses and reconstruction funds needed Social sectors restitution and compensation mechanismsSocial sectors restitution and compensation mechanisms Identification of local constraints and resource- complements required to overcome themIdentification of local constraints and resource- complements required to overcome them appeal of assistance in reconstruction (as distinct from the emergency needs)appeal of assistance in reconstruction (as distinct from the emergency needs) role of the private sectorrole of the private sector

25. ANNEX: List of project profiles in the form of individual fact sheet for each profile indicating sector, content, objectives, actions to be performed, total cost, local inputs and external resources needed, indicating executing agency suggested and possible source of resources.List of project profiles in the form of individual fact sheet for each profile indicating sector, content, objectives, actions to be performed, total cost, local inputs and external resources needed, indicating executing agency suggested and possible source of resources.

26. Sector composition of the projects identified In the amount of BZ$211.6 million (or US$105.8) in percentages: Projects in social sectors48.0 Health and sanitation2.5 Education1.4 Housing44.1 Energy, water supply, sanitation and telecommunications 6.1 Transport subsector15.8 Productive sectors24.8 Agriculture24.3 Tourism0.5 Environmental management5.3 Prevention and mitigation

27. Thus the urgency to face the challenge not only of replacing lost housing and other social infrastructure but to do so with new, more resilient criteria and giving full attention to risk reduction since –as Keith made apparent— Belizean society has a high level of exposed vulnerability.

28. On occasion an event like Keith –fortunately enough without major losses of lives as has recently occurred in other countries—opens the opportunity for a change of policy and a soul-searching effort to avoid preserving or aggravating presently negative trends. Certainly Keith represents an economic setback in some aspects but it may be just the kind of reminder needed to give a hard look to ongoing processes that may be rectified.