1. Mindanao and the Bangsamoro: Prospects for Peace

2. I. Historical Foundations of the Bangsamoro Struggle Bangsamoro ("the Moro People") 13-ethnolinguistic Muslim tribes in the Philippines Comprising about 5% of the Philippine population and around 20% of the population in Mindanao.

3. WHO ARE THE MUSLIMS IN THE PHILIPPINES? consist of 13 ethno-linguistic groups distributed according to their respective geographical locations. The first three are the largest groups. Maranao - Lanao del Sur Maguindanao - Maguindanao Province and Cotabato Tausug - Sulu Sama Yakan Sangil Palawani Molbog The number of Balik-Islam (reverts to Islam) is a surging phenomenon in the Phiilippines. Kolibugan Jama Mapun Iranun Ka’agan Badjao

4. I. Historical Foundations

5. Were the Muslims always a minority in Mindanao? SECTOR1918%1970%1980% 2000 % Christians159,13222%6.1 million 75%7.1 million65% 72% Muslims358,968491.5 million 202.5 million23 20 Lumads205,555291.2 million 5 12 N/A TOTAL723,625100%8.1 million100%10.9 million100% --- Official Data as quoted from Tan, S. K., 1995, NCSO 2000 census

6. Were the Muslims always poor? PROVINCE1970 %Rank1990 %Rank Lanao del Norte19.72719.321 Sulu15.53711.052 Lanao del Sur19.62811.253 Bataan15.43831.111 Pampanga13.33927.515 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH PIPED WATER, 1970/1990

7. 19701990 PROVINCE%Rank% Zamboanga del Sur102840.237 Sulu6.7389.473 Ilocos Sur4.55061.813 Bukidnon4.45131.548 Lanao del Sur3.75834.943 Camiguin3.15926.457

8. Factors that led to decline

9. Elements of the Radicalization of the Bangsamoro

10. Simple & functional literacy rate 88% can read and write 75% are functionally literate  Simple Literacy Rate Functional Literacy Rate Mindanao 75.36 88.12 Visayas 80.5 91.9795.14 Luzon 85.99 Sources: MCW & NCRFW

11. Life Expectancy, 2000 66.7 65.5 63 LuzonVisayasMindanao Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person can expect to live, based on the age-specific death rates for a given year. Mindanao has the shortest life expectancy

12. Child Labor as a way of dealing with poverty in Mindanao 7 out of 10 Mindanao households have working children within 5-17 years old, surpassing the national average of 6 out of 10. ( Oct 2001) The phenomenon of child labor and child prostitution points to the problem of extreme poverty Despite laws against child labor, many children have remained in the labor market. Sources: MCW & NCRFW

13. II. Liberation Movements

15. II. The MNLF Peace Track  1976 Tripoli Agreement under Marcos regime: autonomy in lieu of independence  Congress passed Republic Act No. 6734, (Organic Act) under the Aquino administration  Plebiscite held on August 1, 1989 in 13 provinces: only Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi joined ARMM  Final Peace Agreement between GRP and MNLF signed on September 2, 1996 under the Ramos administration  RA9054 passed amending RA 6734  Plebiscite in August 2001: Basilan and Marawi City joined ARMM

16. II. STATUS: MNLF Peace Track Problematic implementation of 1996 FPA. MNLF Chair Misuari was arrested 2001 on charges of rebellion. Allowed to post bail after 7 years of incarceration. MNLF troops loyal to Misuari went back to the hills Tripartite review of implementation ongoing

17. Failing Autonomy The 1996 Peace Agreement has failed to deliver the “peace dividends”. Instead of the promised autonomy, there is increased and heavy dependence of ARMM on the National Government

18. 2005 Philippine Human Development Report Human Development Index in ARMM: Lowest 10 provinces 1997 2000 2003 ProvinceHDIProvinceHDIProvinceHDI Sulu0.336Sulu0.351Sulu 0.31 Lanao del Sur0.415Tawi-Tawi0.390Maguindanao 0.36 Maguindanao0.416Basilan0.425Tawi-Tawi 0.36 Tawi-Tawi0.430Maguindanao0.461Basilan 0.41 Basilan0.439Ifugao0.461Masbate 0.44 Ifugao0.452Lanao del Sur0.464Zamboanga del Norte 0.45 Lanao del Norte0.470Agusan del Sur0.482Sarangani 0.45 Agusan del Sur0.482Samar0.511Western Samar 0.47 Samar0.493Lanao del Norte0.512Eastern Samar 0.47 Sarangani0.494Sarangani0.516Lanao del Sur 0.48

19. 2005 Philippine Human Development Report Poverty Incidence in ARMM REGION1997 2000 2003 %Rank% % NCR8.501511.50157.3015 5-Bicol57.00261.90247.904 8-Eastern Visayas48.50651.10643.406 9-Western Mindanao45.50753.00749.402 10-Northern Mindanao52.70452.20444.305 12-Central Mindanao55.80358.10338.407 CARAGA --- CAR50.10543.80531.209 ARMM62.50171.30153.101

20. Agreement on cessation of hostilities

21. STATUS: GRP-MILF Peace Track

22. CHALLENGES Lack of information about the conflict Continuing armed conflict High Iliteracy rates and unemployment Abject Poverty Militarization Discrimination Poor delivery of government basic social service

23. Understanding the MOA-AD Basic principle: There is no alternative solution to end the 35-year old Mindanao conflict but to address the very root of the Bangsamoro problem through a politically-negotiated settlement. The MOA-AD is a document that is the product of more than 4 years of negotiations between the government and the MILF. The prospective BJE would have fulfilled the Bangsamoro people’s struggle for self determination – begun by the MNLF and pushed to completion by the MILF.

24. III. The Road Back to Peace CEASEFIRE. Military strategies CANNOT resolve the Mindanao conflict. UN, EU, OIC, ASEAN assistance to bring parties back to negotiating table. Peace process must include all stakeholders, including religious leaders like the Ulama as well as civil society. This will give the process the legitimacy and the critical political constituency it needs to succeed.

25. The Road Back to Peace  Government must resolve, not just manage, the Mindanao conflict. It should not allow the peace process to be hijacked by political posturing and opportunism.  All parties must show sincerity and allow the peace negotiations to proceed.

26. The Road Back to Peace Genuine autonomy and lasting peace cannot be attained unless the central government divests itself of substantial powers and invest the same to local communities and allow them to chart their own destiny. Federalism as an option after the 2010 elections

27. SHUKRAN!