1. Inside the State RSK: Chapters 6 & 7 Atlas: Maps 50 & 53

2. Motivating Examples “What this country needs is a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution.” (White 1964) “A far reaching consensus now agrees that German foreign policy after 1897 must be understood as a response to the internal threat of socialism and democracy.” (Kaiser 1983) Louis Napoleon “has no alternative left but revolution at home or war abroad”. (Mayer 1977)

3. Diversionary Theory What factors explain when leaders use force for political purposes? 1)Leaders’ have a desire to stay in office 2)When faced with an external threat, groups become more cohesive 3)A leader’s approval increases following a use of military force—rally around the flag effect

6. Rally Around the Flag Academic evidence is mixed Some studies find rallies (e.g. Iranian hostage crisis, Gulf War, Falklands (Lai & Reiter)) Others find that rally effects in the US vary and are typically short-lived and small (Lian & Oneal). Leaders do not have longer terms in office after uses of force (Chiozza & Goemans) & may even lose office when cooperating with their rivals (Colaresi).

7. Diversionary Behavior Leaders use force to divert attention away from domestic turmoil Aspects of domestic turmoil include internal conflict (protests, riots, etc.) and economic woes (high inflation, etc.) Political incentives: approval, elections

8. Ostrom and Job’s (1986) Study Cybernetic Decision-making Model Leaders consider a limited set of critical factors U.S. Presidents share three goals (1948-1976) A preference for action Anti-communism Containment of the USSR

9. Environments the President monitors International: level of international tension, strategic balance, war involvement Domestic: public attitude toward international tension and strategic balance, public aversion to war, economic misery Political: Public approval, lack of political success, elections

10. Findings All three environments matter, but the political environment has the greatest impact on the decision to use force. U.S. Presidents are more likely to use force when their overall approval is high. U.S. Presidents are more likely to use force in bad economic times. Kennedy was the most likely to use force, and Truman the least likely

13. Research Design Problems Uses of force are related over time International factors have stronger effects when you control for temporal dynamics (Mitchell and Moore, 2002) Major uses of force are driven by different factors than minor uses Domestic factors (e.g. approval, economy) have strongest effects on major uses of force (Mitchell and Moore, 2002)

14. Opportunities to Use Force? No consideration of opportunity to use force Leaders do not typically manufacture crises So where do opportunities come from? International events (Meernik) Major powers have lots of opportunities States involved in interstate rivalries have lots of opportunities (e.g. India & Pakistan)

15. Opportunities for Force Uses of Force

16. It is easiest to target a rival state (Mitchell and Prins, 2004).

17. Does Diversion Challenge the DP? Are leaders in democracies immoral if they use force for political gain? Strategic diversion Democratic leaders have more incentives to rally the public But their enemies know this, and so avoid providing them with opportunities