1. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV PART III: How BET_EF works PART III: How BET_EF works

2. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV

3. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: main form 1.Hazard procedure 2.Event tree selection 3.Output selection 4.Geometry visualization 5.Options

4. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Hazard Procedure 1.Hazard procedure 2.Event tree selection 3.Output selection 4.Geometry visualization 5.Options

5. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Event Tree selection 1.Hazard procedure 2.Event tree selection 3.Output selection 4.Geometry visualization 5.Options PATH SELECTION NODE SELECTION

6. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Event Tree selection 1.Hazard procedure 2.Event tree selection 3.Output selection 4.Geometry visualization 5.Options Probability that all the events in the selected path occur contemporaneously Probability that the events at the selected node occur, given previous nodes

7. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Absolute probability Cumulative Distribution Probability Density Function Distribution’s parameters

8. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Conditional probability Averages (sum to 1) Distribution’s parameters

9. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Vent map It can be both CONDITIONAL or ABSOLUTE probability When you move the mouse on the map… it is shown: - Location - Coordinates - Average Probability The map can be saved in bmp or loaded in GoogleEarth

10. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Vent map… saved

11. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 2D

12. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 3D

13. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Monitoring When Monitoring is considered (see Hazard Procedure), you will be asked to input or load monitoring measurements…

14. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Monitoring Measurements may be… - directly input - loaded from an ascii file (all nodes together) Thresholds interval may be visualized… Each measure may be localized…

15. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Monitoring

16. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV BET_EF: Manual The BET_MANUAL describes: - each function of the software - step by step the installation procedure A link to the.html BET_MANUAL can be found: 1) start menu 2) button HELP in all the forms of BET_EF and BET_UPGRADE 3) on internet: http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet

17. Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EF INGV More on BET: CoV5: -Oral 12-O-11, Nov. 22 (Thu) Hall A, 1450-1510 Integrating Eruption Forecasting and Cost/benefit Analysis for decision making During an Emergency: the Case of BET_EF Applied to Vesuvius in the MESIMEX Experiment -poster 21b-P-18, Nov. 22 (Thu.), 1640-1800 The Bayesian Event Tree for short- and long-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei, Italy, Other… - http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet - Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and sort-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007- 0157-y More on BET: CoV5: -Oral 12-O-11, Nov. 22 (Thu) Hall A, 1450-1510 Integrating Eruption Forecasting and Cost/benefit Analysis for decision making During an Emergency: the Case of BET_EF Applied to Vesuvius in the MESIMEX Experiment -poster 21b-P-18, Nov. 22 (Thu.), 1640-1800 The Bayesian Event Tree for short- and long-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei, Italy, Other… - http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet - Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and sort-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007- 0157-y