1. Causality Loop The Risk of Human Activity Brandon Gustafson

2. General Description Given Population Participates in activities which increase welfare Goods and Services are in demand to provide for these activities Goods and services require materials

3. General Description Materials flow causes pollution of varying concentrations Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying effects Each effect posses different risks to humans

4. General Description These risks in turn effect our welfare Our welfare being effected causes us to develop policy for action These actions lead to a changes in our activity

5. The Risk of Human Activity

6. Key Features The entire process functions in a loop Each action is connected to overall welfare Overall welfare affects future action Ideally an equilibrium is reached between increased welfare from action and decreased welfare from risk

7. Example People like to consume electricity They use it to increase their personal utility or welfare everyday To meet the demands power companies have to generate enough electricity

8. California Electricity 33.9 Million people used 78 TWh of electricity in 2000 in California 61.9 kWh per dollar ($) GSP Or, 2300 kWh per person

9. California Pollution Raw materials such as coal and other fossil fuels flow to power production plants Pollution is produced Pollution per kWh is listed below for 8 major pollutants CO 2 lbs/kWh NO x lbs/kWh SO 2 lbs/kWh Hg lbs/kWh PM 10 lbs/kWh PM 2.5 lbs/kWh VOC lbs/kWh CO lbs/kWh California1.1850.000963.0003191x10 -10 0.0000200.0000190.0000610.000401

10. California Concentration Table depicts the amount of pollution per person This type of pollution can lead to concentration levels of as much as 10 ppb in smoggy LA CO 2 lbs NO x lbs SO 2 lbs Hg lbs PM 10 lbs PM 2.5 lbs VOC lbs CO lbs California2725.52.21490.73372.3x10 -7 0.0460.04370.14030.9223

11. California Effects The effects of these pollutants are mild and severe Respiratory problems to simply impaired visibility Especially the young, the old, and the asthmatic

12. California Risks The risk depends on the person Each year 50,000 people are estimated to have died from air pollution Those with lung conditions already are at the greatest risk Although, we are all at elevated risk at these concentrations

13. Welfare to Action Reduced health and death reduce welfare Reduced welfare spurs action Governmental agencies set pollution limits California Air Resources Board website goes online

14. Types of Actions To increase welfare and/or reduce risk Reducing the population would reduce risk Reducing activity will decrease risk but also decrease welfare Use less materials Output lower concentrations of pollutants Output pollutants that have less effect and associated risk

15. Summary The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a self-balancing cycle Human welfare is adjusted up and down respectively by increased human activity which leads to increased risk Ideally an equilibrium is reached by action and counter action There are many ways that people are working on to react to the current situation