1. COPING WITH THE 21 ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS COPING WITH THE 21 ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS. Chris Pollock Aberystwyth University

2. CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL

3. Models suggest that climate change effects on yield are positive are positive or neutral at high latitudes, but negative at low latitudes

4. THE MULTIPLIERS Growing competition for waterGrowing competition for water Increasing populationIncreasing population Increasing demand for animal productsIncreasing demand for animal products Increasing competition for landIncreasing competition for land Increasing fragility of key ecosystemsIncreasing fragility of key ecosystems How will these interact with the direct effects to influence global supply networks? to influence global supply networks?

5. Projections of water use and actual global water withdrawals SCIENCE VOL 302 28 NOVEMBER 2003

6. Biodiversity 10,000BC 1900 AD Today Natural and semi-natural populations “Unplanned” populations (weeds etc “Unplanned” populations (weeds etc ) “Planned” populations (crops etc) Changes in biodiversity attributable to the development of agriculture the development of agriculture Redrawn from Edwards & Hilbeck, 2001 Small-scale Mixed farming Large-scale Specialist farming

8. POTENTIAL RISKS Rising Prices (*)Rising Prices (*) Increased price volatility (**)Increased price volatility (**) Reduced security of supply (***)Reduced security of supply (***) Possible safety implications (****)Possible safety implications (****) Reduction in consumer choice (????)Reduction in consumer choice (????) Increased “footprint” of agriculture (*****)Increased “footprint” of agriculture (*****)

9. SUSTAINABLE LAND USE: Facilitates the long-term Facilitates the long-term generation of economic or societal benefits with minimal impact on the environment and in a way that supports the rural economy

10. The essential dilemma. Can we farm sustainably and feed everyone?

11. THE INDUSTRY MUST RESPOND UK Climate Change Bill publishedUK Climate Change Bill published All sectors expected to develop mitigation optionsAll sectors expected to develop mitigation options Land Use has particular challenges:Land Use has particular challenges: –N 2 O and CH 4 more significant than CO 2 –Very complex interactions determine scale of emissions –Limited mitigation options

12. THERE ARE LOW-HANGING FRUIT Reduce direct CO 2 emissions (1-2%)Reduce direct CO 2 emissions (1-2%) Reduce CH 4 emissions by maximising conversion efficiency and by good slurry management (5-10%)Reduce CH 4 emissions by maximising conversion efficiency and by good slurry management (5-10%) Reduce N 2 O emissions by improved input management (10-15%)Reduce N 2 O emissions by improved input management (10-15%) Consider small-scale renewable energyConsider small-scale renewable energy These can also reduce enterprise costs

13. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOODLAND Renewable energyRenewable energy Renewable building materialsRenewable building materials Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration Habitat restoration and wildlife corridorsHabitat restoration and wildlife corridors Water ManagementWater Management Clean-up of diffuse pollutionClean-up of diffuse pollution Enhancement of landscape diversityEnhancement of landscape diversity

14. THE BIG QUESTION Do we have the policy framework that will encourage sustainable land management in general and sustainable woodland development in particular?

15. THREE EXAMPLES WHERE WE DO NOT Compensation for income foregone does not value ecosystem services properlyCompensation for income foregone does not value ecosystem services properly Micro-CHP is not yet profitable because of power company rulesMicro-CHP is not yet profitable because of power company rules Residues from anaerobic digestion of municipal green waste cannot be applied to cropsResidues from anaerobic digestion of municipal green waste cannot be applied to crops

16. CONCLUSIONS Climate change cannot be viewed in isolationClimate change cannot be viewed in isolation Other factors will also impact on UK land useOther factors will also impact on UK land use The industry will have to adaptThe industry will have to adapt There are specific opportunities for woodlandThere are specific opportunities for woodland Changes in policy and regulation are neededChanges in policy and regulation are needed