1.  2004 Proutist Universal 1 Proutist Economic Development Futures Thinking Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael Towsey

2. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal2 Futures Thinking A recent development in corporate planning Origins in 1950s-60s – an alternative to traditional (military) command and control planning Known as scenario planning Attempt to cope with complexity and surprise in the modern world Paralleled development of complex systems and chaos theory First used commercially by Shell oil company during 1972 oil crisis In 1980s-90s developed into Futures Thinking "Futures" is plural to indicate there are many possible futures

3. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal3 From Scenario Planning... Purpose is NOT to predict the future but to understand the possible alternatives Understanding alternatives opens up choices and planning options Psychology: if a possible scenario has previously been discussed it does not surprise Successful scenario planning depends on non-traditional, imaginative thinking Must dare to think the unexpected

4. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal4... To Futures Thinking – 1990s Traditional scenario planning tends to be passive –Attempts to anticipate the future but not to shape it Futures thinking takes next step Planners are asked to envisage their ideal world, then create strategies to realise that world Psychology: as you think, so you become An organisation or nation without a compelling vision of the future will decline Traditional planning 3-5 years Futures planning 5-50 years

5. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal5 An example: Vision Brazil 2020 September 2003, organised by Economic and Social Council Chaired by Minister Tarso Genro 200 participants from business, labour and civil society Purpose: to envision Brazil in the year 2020 –To develop scenarios around the goal of sustainable development –E.g. "We are a nation without poverty in which education is a priority".

6. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal6 Visioning the future 1.Business as usual 2.Collapse - catastrophe 3.Back to the past 4.Transformation

7. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal7 Forces acting on the future Future Visions (pull) Traditions, habits (inertia) Events (push)

8. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal8 Four levels of social analysis Level 1 – Litany –day to day events –front page news Level 2 – Social, cultural economic trends (social causes) –editorial content –TV documentaries Level 3 – Structural analysis (discourse, worldview) –looks at: power relations, center-periphery –usually an emerging world view Level 4 – Metaphor (and myth) –looks at macro-history, mythology, archetypes

9. Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael TowseyProutist Universal9 Causal layered analysis A new futures research method Its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures Challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down layers of analysis and is inclusive of different ways of knowing http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm