1. Hypoxia Management tools: indicators & models Bob Wood John Jacobs Heath Kelsey Xinsheng Zhang Cooperative Oxford Lab www.ecocheck.org

2. This workshop…what I learned Hypoxia is a growing problem Hypoxia is a growing problem There are negative resource impacts associated with hypoxia There are negative resource impacts associated with hypoxia Predictive models are the ultimate target Predictive models are the ultimate target Our knowledge is still incomplete… Our knowledge is still incomplete…

3. Intersecting objectives NOAA’s place-based Integrated assessment approach NOAA’s place-based Integrated assessment approach –Chesapeake Bay chosen as a ‘proof-of-concept’ for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA) Support commitments to Ecosystem-based fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD) Support commitments to Ecosystem-based fisheries management (NOAA; CBP; MD) Deliver more with less (“actual actions”) Deliver more with less (“actual actions”)

4. Ecosystem-based management Support philosophical change in management approach Support philosophical change in management approach –Institutional boundaries must be overcome –Constituents must be informed Link indicators to research, & modeling

5. MD coastal bays “report card” www.ian.umces.edu Management tools: indicators (spatial), models, synthesis

6. Pathogens & the Coastal Bay Ecosystem Health ‘report card’ Linking Report card values to goods & services

7. Dissolved Oxygen / Eutrophication gradient Marine / Freshwater gradient Eutrophication/hypoxia in MD Coastal Bays Individual water quality samples Jacobs, Wood, et al.

8. . DO ------------------------------------- eutrophication

10. DO versus Vibrio p. abundance r 2 = 0.28 p<0.0001

11. Total N vs Mycobacterium abundance r 2 = 0.21 p<0.0001

12. Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’ Bay Habitat Health ‘report card’ anchor to ecosystem goods & service outcomes Chesapeake WatershedsChl-aDOClarityWQIP-IBIB-IBISAVBIBHHI Patapsco 000 0 10632 3618.1 Patuxent 13495 22 82418 1719.4 Mid Bay 132518 19 30239 2119.8 Choptank 5780 28 123130 2426.0 Potomac 38477 31 252039 2829.5 York 36514 30 571635 3633.3 Rappahannock 19878 38 483 2933.7 N Bay 39666 37 415652 5043.2 James 451002 49 543524 3843.4 S Bay 4885 33 515657 5543.6 Tangier Sound 131008 40 no data7625 5045.2 Coming soon to… www.ecocheck.org

13. Moving into Chesapeake Bay Built upon the Bay Program (in MD) WQ monitoring survey Also being mapped: Mycobacterium sp. V.parahaemolyticus Hematodinium

14. Linking watershed land use patterns to ecological stress Anacostia Annemessex BackCreek Elizabeth Manokin Northeast Patapsco Piscataway Pocomoke Chester Choptank Wicomico Back Bay Corsica Rhode Anacostia Annemessex BackCreek Elizabeth Magothy Manokin Northeast Patapsco Piscataway Pocomoke StMarys Chester Choptank Wicomico Back %Urban %Forest %Agriculture %Wetland Sassafras Honga Little Choptank Monie Severn Mattawoman

15. DO Urban Land Use Ranking %Urban Land Use & dissolved oxygen

16. Agricultural Land Use Ranking TDN %Agricultural Land Use & total dissolved nitrogen

17. A simple model: Bay Anchovy model Dissolved Oxygen Temperature Prey Response functions from literature: e.g., Brandt et al. 1992; Luo & Brandt 1993 Chesapeake Bay Program monitoring data

18. Bay anchovy Habitat Suitability (growth rate potential) Zhang, Bahner, Wood, Houde, Annis, Harding

19. Model Performance VIMS VA Bay CPUE (MD DNR seine)

20. Consider punctuating research & model development with value added products Outreach: Agency managers Agency managers Decision makers Decision makers Constituents Constituents

21. Acknowlegements Many colleagues from partner institutions including … Center of Marine Biotechnology (U.MD) UMCES – HPL; CBL; IAN Chesapeake Bay Program SERC And others