1. Urban Growth and Land-Use Change: An overview for air quality models Manuel Suárez Instituto de Geografía-UNAM

2. Contents Overview (Urban growth in AQ models) Why cities grow the way they do (Location theory) Growth implications on land use change and emissions Building urban growth scenarios Examples Summary

3. Location Land use change Urban Growth /Densification Population and economic growth Transportation VKT Mode Tech. Traffic Infrastructure Distribution nets Road s Cost Urban Structure Land use Distribution Damage to ecosystems Health Emissions Exposure Accesibility Energy efficiency Regional-urban srtucture

4. Urban growth and urban structure determine: – Transportation emissions VKT Speed – Area emissions City-wide population and employment densities (by type of economic activity – Point emissions (Industrial location/permitted land use)

5. Urban location theory (1) (2) (3) (4)

6. City size theory $ Land Rent Center Distance MBB´B´ A A´´ A´A´

7. Differential Urbanization (Regional)

8. Possible impacts of types of urban growth on emissions PopulationEmploymentTypeEffect on emissions New urban areas New / Existing urban areas SprawlExponential Existing urban areas (zoned for housing) Existing urban areas (zoned for employment) Densification (Urban structure mantained) Linear Existing urban areas (Mixed use) Densification (More efficient urban structure) Logarithmic (maybe linear with slope < 1)

9. Urbanization 1970

10. Urbanization 1970-1980

11. Urbanization 1980-1990

12. Urbanization 1990-2000 YearUrban area% Change 197071,626 1980116,89363.20% 1990221,31089.33% 2000507,803129.45%

13. Peri-urban spaces 2000

14. Area Urbana 2000 Área Locs < 2500 Crecimiento urbano 1990-2000 Superficie estimada:

15. Regional Land Use

16. Land-use change (Official urbanization) Previous Land use Area (Ha)% Agriculture56,99381.4 Pasture4,5106.5 Forest1,5352.1 Others6,93510.0 TOTAL69,973100 Mean urban population density: 80 p/Ha Mean urbanization density 1990-2000 (official):25 p/Ha Mean urbanization density 1990-2000(periurban):8.2 p/Ha Regional Land Use Change (Remote sensing)

17. Scenario based urban growth forecast - 3 step model Calibrated model of urbanization probabilities Density scenarios Growth assignment Prediction of observed urbanization Trend Sensitivity analysis Trend Sensitivity analysis Population forecasts Replace variable values with forcasted values Estimated inhabited rural area

18. Data sources Population census data tract (AGEB) level Economic census data tract (AGEB) level Land use (remote sensing) Main transportation infrastructure (Roads) Population forecasts Employment forecasts (Shift-share analysis) – Data should be available for at least two time periods

19. Urbanization probabilities Table 2: Calibrated Binomial Logit model of urbanization probabilities in MCMA 1990-2000 VariableBStd. Error DISTRAKM-0.0050.031 INCOME0.841*0.091 LOCSIZE0.003*0 IRRIG1.12*0.008 MANUFAC0.086*0.035 SERVS-0.389*0.008 SLOPE-0.069*0 DISTLOC-0.001*0.197 CONSTANT-1.141* Model Fit -2 Log likelihood = 6748.227 Cox & Snell R Square = 0.213 Nagelkerke R Square = 0.434 N = 15670 % of correctly classified cases: 0 = 83%; 1 = 80%; Total = 83% (Cut value= 0.15) * Sig. at 0.001 or better

20. Urbanization probabilities Urban expansion scenarios

21. Dinámicas regionales de expansión urbana

22. Urban expansion probabilities in Mexico City’s Regional Belt 2020

23. Urban ring structures

24. Employment and population density by urban ring

25. Puebla-Tlaxcala urban ring configuration Puebla-Tlaxcala-Apizaco

26. Population and employment density profile by urban ring

27. Importance of variables in expansion probabilities PueblaTlaxcalaApizaco Distance to transportation0.4080.0070.749 Distance to closest urban area0.1150.6030.004 Population size of closest urban area1.0120.8590.856 Local income1.7461519.87623.844 Agricultural land (dummy)1.371.5691.57E+010 Non irrigated (dummy)1.24423.1369.055 Slope0.9190.5981.121 Number of jobs1.011.2560.001 Number of service jobs0.6621.634.33E+012 Manufacturing : Services Ratio0.9971.0531.163 Constant1.01600 u= Logit model: urban growth probability

28. Urbanization density scenarios

29. Growth assignment Urbanization in Puebla-Tlaxcala 2030, [preliminary] optimistic scenario (40 p/Ha)

30. Summary Urban growth models can help: – Forecast emissions Area emissions through estimated/planned population density data Transportation emissions with Mobile 6 or other (better) transportation models (i.e. 4 step transportation model – Guide planning policies through sensitivity analyses of AQ models

31. Thanks for your attention!