1. Clarence River Estuary Marie Savina-Rolland, Scott Condie, Penny Johnson, Donna Hayes, Beth Fulton, Bec Gorton, Rich Little Coastal MSE workshop 2-3/02/2011

2. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 NSW DPI / WfO collaboration Development/evaluation of tools to assist with implementation of ecosystem-based management of NSW aquatic resources NSW shelf: Testing alternative fisheries harvest strategies Effectiveness of existing and proposed marine reserves Clarence River Estuary

3. Insert presentation title Issues and approach Impacts on the estuarine environment and fisheries due to: Changes in land-use historical change from grazing to sugarcane on the floodplain urbanisation of coastal areas and reforestation of the upper catchment Major freshwater extraction for use in other catchments Changes in catchment inputs due to climatic changes Approach based on whole-of-system modelling using Atlantis Scenario modelling Testing assessment models and management strategies Coastal Lakes Assessment and Management (CLAM) tool Fisheries stock assessments and management strategies

4. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 Clarence River Estuary– largest in NSW

5. Insert presentation title Multiple channels and coastal lakes Courtesy of WBMCourtesy of WBM An under-utilised freshwater resource?An under-utilised freshwater resource?

6. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 CREAM model domain 47 boxes – water column and sediment layers

7. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 Inputs specified at subcatchment level (freshwater, sediments, nutrients – CCA)

8. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 CREAM trophic structure small phytoplankton large phytoplankton small zooplankton large zooplankton seagrass macroalgae microphytobenthos meiobenthos amphipods polychaetes deposit feeders Mud crab other macrozoobenthos bivalves others filter feeders grazers school prawn king prawn cephalopods bullshark spotted wobbegong estuary stingray bottlenose dolphin omnivorous seabirds macroinvertivorous seabirds miscivorous seabirds luderick tarwhine snub-nosed garfish com mullets com mullets sand whiting yellowfin bream dusky flathead eels mullloway other piscivorous other herbivorous other omnivorous other small demersal invertivorous other large demersal invertivorous small planktivores large planktivores benthic bacteria pelagic bacteria

9. Qualitative and quantitative validation (limited data – mainly biogeochemical) CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010

10. Scenario results (1951-2003)

11. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 CLAM – Coastal Lake Assessment & Management Bayesian Network – based on expert opinion

12. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 Model coupling CREAM Virtual Manager Monitoring Atlantis CLAM

13. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 Lake Wooloweyah CLAM scenarios New urban development No development Construction without (without) controls for site runoff Development using conventional (best practice) stormwater Agricultural land management No change Foreshore buffers and fencing Best practice application of fertilisers and pesticides Commercial fishing activities No change Increase in minimum size of prawns permitted to be caught Banning of all commercial prawn trawling Increase in prawn trawling by 50% on current levels

14. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 Lake Wooloweyah CLAM scenarios New urban development No development Construction without (without) controls for site runoff Development using conventional (best practice) stormwater Agricultural land management No change Foreshore buffers and fencing Best practice application of fertilisers and pesticides Commercial fishing activities No change Increase in minimum size of prawns permitted to be caught Banning of all commercial prawn trawling Increase in prawn trawling by 50% on current levels CLAM focused on one-off decisions with limited scope for adaptive strategies

15. CSIRO. Coastal MSE workshop – 02-03/02/2010 Lake Wooloweyah CLAM scenarios New urban development No development Construction without (without) controls for site runoff Development using conventional (best practice) stormwater Agricultural land management No change Foreshore buffers and fencing Best practice application of fertilisers and pesticides Commercial fishing activities No change Increase in minimum size of prawns permitted to be caught Banning of all commercial prawn trawling Increase in prawn trawling by 50% on current levels CLAM focused on one-off decisions with limited scope for adaptive strategies Aspects of CLAM based on false assumptions: -influence of broader system -temporal variability -what limits seagrass

16. Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you Scott Condie Beth Fulton Bec Gorton Rich Little Marie Savina