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Published byLinda Anastasia O’Brien’ Modified over 9 years ago
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September 8, 2014 Gilbert Andrew Garcia, CFA Managing Partner
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I. Market Quiz II. Evolution of the Fixed Income Market III. Fixed Income Excess Returns IV. Valuation V. Market Developments 1
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GoldHigh YieldAggregate Russell Midcap S&P 2 11.97%10.43%8.90%7.78%4.93% 10 -Year Annualized Returns Ending 6-30-14
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GoldHigh YieldAggregateRussell MidcapS&P 3 11.97%8.90%4.93%10.43%7.78% 10 -Year Annualized Returns Ending 6-30-14 INDEX
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Return doesn’t account for the risk. Investors must be compensated for risk. We should measure returns on a risk adjusted basis. 4
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5 Developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe. Calculated by subtracting the Risk Free Return from the Investment Return and dividing the difference by the Volatility of the Investment. Sharpe Ratio = R - Rƒ σ A higher Sharpe ratio equates to better risk- adjusted performance.
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GoldHigh YieldAggregateRussell MidcapS&P 6 11.97%8.90%4.93%10.43%7.78% 10 -Year Annualized Returns Ending 6-30-14 INDEX 10 -Year Sharpe Ratio Ending 6-30-14 1.040.540.710.500.42
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GoldHigh YieldAggregate Russell Midcap S&P 7 11.86%7.13%6.94%6.31%6.02% 10 -Year Annualized Returns Ending 6-30-07
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GoldRussell MidcapAggregateS&PHigh Yield 8 11.86%7.13%6.94%6.31%6.02% 10 -Year Annualized Returns Ending 6-30-07 INDEX
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GoldRussell MidcapAggregateS&PHigh Yield 9 10 -Year Annualized Returns Ending 6-30-07 INDEX 10 -Year Sharpe Ratio Ending 6-30-07 0.660.510.370.23 11.86%7.13%6.94%6.31%6.02%
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10 INDEX 10 -Year Sharpe Ratio Ending 6-30-14 10 -Year Sharpe Ratio Ending 6-30-07 GoldHigh YieldAggregateRussell MidcapS&P1.040.540.710.500.420.660.510.370.23
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11 1976 $456 Billion
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12 1976 1986 $2.1 Trillion $456 Billion
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CMO’s invented MBS along the yield curve Floating rate traunches PAC’s 13 1986 $2.1 Trillion 13
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14 19961986 $2.1 Trillion$4.7 Trillion
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15 NOW $17.1 Trillion
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16 1976 $456 Billion NOW $17.1 Trillion
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AgencyABSCorporatesMBS 17 44.73%30.38%22.13%16.81% 20 -Year Excess Return Ending 6-30-14
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AgencyCorporatesABSMBS 18 44.73%30.38%22.13%16.81% 20 -Year Excess Return Ending 6-30-14 INDEX
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19 $178 Billion
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20 1980 TODAY $178 Billion$4.0 Trillion
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21 Source: Barclays Live Last Update: 7/31/2014 Greece U.S. Credit Downgrade Gulf War
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(OAS Spread/ 5 yr Treasury yield) 22 Source: Barclays Live Last Update: 7/31/2014 Greece U.S. Credit Downgrade Gulf War
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Electronic Trading TRACE Data 23
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