1. H. Duane Norman Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD duane.norman@ars.usda.gov NDHIA San Antonio (1) 2008 AIPL Report: We’re from the government and we’re here to help you!

2. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (2) Trend in days open 1 2 3 4 5 Lactation

3. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (3) Cow fertility trends Year bred Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-d NRR for 1st service (%) 1st service CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) HolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJersey 19968982 19979184 19989185 19999285 20009084 20019285 20028881 20038883 20048684 20058684 20068583

4. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (4) Cow fertility trends Year bred Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-d NRR for 1st service (%) 1st service CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) HolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJersey 199689825457 199791845557 199891855456 199992855355 200090845355 200192855256 200288815053 200388834853 200486844853 200586844652 20068583……

5. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (5) Cow fertility trends Year bred Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-d NRR for 1st service (%) 1st service CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) HolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJersey 1996898254573639 1997918455573437 1998918554563236 1999928553553135 2000908453553135 2001928552563136 2002888150532935 2003888348533036 2004868448533136 2005868446523035 20068583…………

6. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (6) Cow fertility trends Year bred Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-d NRR for 1st service (%) 1st service CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) HolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJerseyHolsteinJersey 19968982545736392.12.0 19979184555734372.1 19989185545632362.22.1 19999285535531352.32.1 20009084535531352.32.1 20019285525631362.32.1 20028881505329352.52.2 20038883485330362.52.3 20048684485331362.52.3 20058684465230352.62.4 20068583………………

7. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (7) Holstein NRR (2005 breedings) Parity 70-day NRR (%) 1st service 2nd service 3rd service 4th service 5th service 14846434139 24543414038 34544424139 44544434139 54543424140 >54543 4139

8. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (8) Holstein CR (2005 breedings) Parity CR (%) 1st service 2nd service 3rd service 4th service 5th service 13233312926 22930292826 32930 2826 42830292726 52728 2625 >52526 25

9. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (9) Herds with synchronized breeding Synchroni- zation status Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-day NRR for 1st service (%) CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) Preg- nancy rate (%) None9046302.620.2 Possible7840272.921.8 Probable7438272.922.4 Synchronized7235253.121.7

10. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (10) US regions

11. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (11) Holstein regional averages (2005 breedings) Region Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-day NRR for 1st service (%) CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) Mideast92 Midwest86 Mountain93 Northeast85 Northwest76 Southeast89 Southwest73

12. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (12) Holstein regional averages (2005 breedings) Region Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-day NRR for 1st service (%) CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) Mideast9247 Midwest8646 Mountain9348 Northeast8546 Northwest7642 Southeast8944 Southwest7336

13. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (13) Holstein regional averages (2005 breedings) Region Calving to 1st breeding (d) 70-day NRR for 1st service (%) CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) Mideast924729 Midwest864630 Mountain934827 Northeast854631 Northwest764229 Southeast894423 Southwest733627

14. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (14) Holstein regional averages (2005 breedings) Region Calving to 1st breedin g (d) 70-day NRR for 1st service (%) CR (%) Services per lactation (no.) Mideast9247292.7 Midwest8646302.7 Mountain9348272.8 Northeast8546312.6 Northwest7642292.8 Southeast8944233.0 Southwest7336272.8

15. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (15) Benefits of improved reproduction l Lowers your semen cost l Optimizes cows lifetime yields l Reduced culling due to delayed or failed conception, i.e. less need for herd replacements l Provides more herd replacements

16. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (16) Two tall tales l Reproduction is only a management issue l Genetics cannot help solve fertility problems

17. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (17) Reproductive evaluations l Fertility of bull as a service sire l Fertility of bulls’ daughters when they reach breeding age

18. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (18) Bull fertility evaluations l Estimated Relative Conception Rate (ERCR) w 70-day nonreturn rate (NRR) Source: − DRMS (Raleigh, NC), 1986−2005 − USDA (Beltsville, MD), 2006−present l Western Bull Fertility Analysis w 75-d veterinary-confirmed conception rate w Source: AgriTech (Visalia, CA), 2003 −present

19. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (19) ERCR distribution (Aug. 2007)

20. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (20) New service sire evaluation coming l Based on conception rate rather than NRR l More accurate w Inseminations from most of the United States w All services (not just first) w Additional model effects included l Available in late Spring/Summer 2008

21. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (21) Pregnancy rate (PR) l Percentage of open cows between 50 and 250 days in milk that become pregnant during each 21-day period l Advantages over days open (DO), the days from calving to conception w Easily defined w Information from nonpregnant cows included w Larger values preferable

22. H.D. Norman 2007 NDHIA San Antonio Convention (22) Pregnancy rate (PR) l PR = [21/(DO − voluntary waiting period + 11)]100 w Voluntary waiting period assumed to be 60 days w Factor of +11 adjusts to middle day of 21-day cycle l Examples w Herd with average of 70 DO has PR of 100% w Herd with average of 91 DO has PR of 50% w Herd with average of 133 DO has PR of 25% w Herd with average of 154 DO has PR of 20%

23. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (23) USDA pregnancy rate l Linear approximation l PR = 0.25 (233 − DO) l 1% higher PR = 4 days fewer open

24. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (24) Reproductive evaluations l Fertility of bulls’ daughters when they reach breeding age

25. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (25) Daughter pregnancy rate (DPR) l First USDA genetic evaluations in 2003 l Same across-breed animal model as for yield traits, productive life (PL), and somatic cell score (SCS) l Heritability of 4%

26. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (26) DPR ( continued) l Predicted transmitting abilities (PTAs) reported as percentages w Daughters of bull with PTA DPR of 1 expected to be 1% more likely to become pregnant during estrous cycle than if bull had PTA DPR of 0 w Each increase of 1% in PTA DPR equals a decrease of 4 days in PTA DO l PTA DO approximated by −4 × PTA DPR l Example: Bull with PTA DPR of +2.0 would have PTA DO of −8

27. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (27) Current breed averages BreedPR (%)DO (d) Gestation length (d) Calving interval (d) Ayrshire23.2140 282422 Brown Swiss20.3152 288440 Guernsey19.1157 286443 Holstein22.0145 280425 Jersey26.4127 280407 Milking Shorthorn 24.8134 281415

28. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (28) DPR trend (August 2007 base)

29. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (29) Bull PTA DPR frequency (Aug. 2007)

30. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (30) Lifetime merit indexes TraitUnits Relative value (%) Net merit Cheese merit Fluid merit ProteinPounds23280 FatPounds231823 MilkPounds0−1224 PLMonths171317 SCSLog−9−7−9 UdderComposite656 Feet/legsComposite333 Body sizeComposite−4−3−4 DPRPercent978 Calving abilityDollars646

31. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (31) Lifetime value l Factors in determining economic value to DPR w Loss of about $1.50/DO w 2.8 lactations per cow w No breedings for half of cows during final lactation w Correlation of heifer and cow fertility (0.3) w Value of extra calves w Other unmeasured health expenses l Total lifetime merit value of $21/PTA DPR unit

32. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (32) Genetic merit of high-DPR Holstein bulls Trait All active AI bulls Bulls (no.)684 PTA milk (lb)838 PTA fat (lb)32 PTA protein (lb)25 PTA SCS2.94 PTA PL (mo)1.1 PTA DPR (%)−0.4 PTA DO (derived)1.6 Net merit ($)242 Semen price ($/unit)24

33. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (33) Genetic merit of high-DPR Holstein bulls Trait All active AI bulls Active AI bulls with PTA DPR of ≥2.0 % Bulls (no.)68441 PTA milk (lb)838287 PTA fat (lb)3214 PTA protein (lb)2517 PTA SCS2.942.86 PTA PL (mo)1.14.2 PTA DPR (%)−0.42.5 PTA DO (derived)1.6−10.0 Net merit ($)242346 Semen price ($/unit)2425

34. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (34) Genetic merit of high-DPR Holstein bulls Trait All active AI bulls Active AI bulls with PTA DPR of ≥2.0 % Top 50% of active AI bulls based on lifetime net merit (>$245) Bulls (no.)68441342 PTA milk (lb)8382871,125 PTA fat (lb)321443 PTA protein (lb)251734 PTA SCS2.942.862.88 PTA PL (mo)1.14.22.1 PTA DPR (%)−0.42.5−0.1 PTA DO (derived)1.6−10.00.4 Net merit ($)242346357 Semen price ($/unit)2425

35. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (35) Genetic merit of high-DPR Holstein bulls Trait All active AI bulls Active AI bulls with PTA DPR of ≥2.0 % Top 50% of active AI bulls based on lifetime net merit (>$245) Top 50% of active AI bulls based on net merit with PTA DPR of ≥2.0% Bulls (no.)6844134220 PTA milk (lb)8382871,125735 PTA fat (lb)32144331 PTA protein (lb)25173430 PTA SCS2.942.862.882.84 PTA PL (mo)1.14.22.15.1 PTA DPR (%)−0.42.5−0.12.6 PTA DO (derived)1.6−10.00.4−10.4 Net merit ($)242346357476 Semen price ($/unit)2425 26

36. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (36) What if I follow the Recommendations… l Question: What happens if folks selects for one of those fitness traits we provide? l Issue: Before 1994 there was an academic discussion on what happens if we lower the SCS too much, and then cows have to face a mastitis challenge? l We proceeded providing PTA SCS and built it into Net Merit so theoretically there is potential for this issue to still be questioned!

37. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (37) Research the potential problem l Using field data less costly; using research herds would be expensive l Group all AI Holstein bulls with 35 or more daughters into 5 equal groups based on PTA SCS l Look at data across 2 generations (sire and maternal grandsire (MGS))

38. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (38) Mean daughter 1 st lactation age-adjusted SCS by sire-mgs PTA SCS group Sire PTA SCS MGS PTA SCS ≤2.85 2.86 to 2.94 2.95 to 3.02 3.03 to 3.13≥3.1 Age-adjusted SCS ≤2.852.772.892.973.053.22 2.86 to 2.942.822.963.033.123.29 2.95 to 3.022.883.003.083.183.35 3.03 to 3.132.893.043.133.223.40 ≥3.142.963.083.193.293.46

39. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (39) Productive life mean (mo) by sire-mgs PTA SCS group Sire PTA SCS MGS PTA SCS ≤2.85 2.86 to 2.94 2.95 to 3.02 3.03 to 3.13≥3.1 PL (mo) ≤2.8528.228.027.427.226.4 2.86 to 2.9428.328.027.427.326.3 2.95 to 3.0227.927.527.026.825.9 3.03 to 3.1328.027.426.926.625.8 ≥3.1427.427.126.626.425.2

40. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (40) Productive life deviation (mo) by sire-mgs PTA SCS group Sire PTA SCS MGS PTA SCS ≤2.85 2.86 to 2.94 2.95 to 3.02 3.03 to 3.13≥3.1 PL (mo) ≤2.85+3.2+2.8+2.3+2.2+1.2 2.86 to 2.94+3.1+2.7+2.1 +1.0 2.95 to 3.02+2.9+2.3+1.9+1.8+0.8 3.03 to 3.13+2.9+2.3+1.8+1.6+0.6 ≥3.14+2.4+1.8+1.4+1.20.0

41. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (41) Percent of cows culled for mastitis by sire- mgs PTA SCS group Sire PTA SCS MGS PTA SCS ≤2.85 2.86 to 2.94 2.95 to 3.02 3.03 to 3.13≥3.14 (% culled) ≤2.858.69.29.610.511.6 2.86 to 2.948.99.410.311.011.9 2.95 to 3.029.09.810.011.312.3 3.03 to 3.139.69.910.711.612.8 ≥3.149.910.611.012.113.4

42. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (42) Productive life mean (mo) by sire-mgs PTA DPR group Sire PTA DPR MGS PTA DPR ≤-1.2 -1.1 to -0.4 -0.3 to 0.3 0.4 to 1.1≥1.2 PL (mo) ≤-1.225.026.226.427.328.7 -1.1 to -0.425.626.826.927.829.0 -0.3 to 0.325.626.826.927.929.0 0.4 to 1.126.127.527.428.229.4 ≥1.226.427.827.928.729.5

43. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (43) Productive life deviation (mo) by sire-mgs PTA DPR group Sire PTA DPR MGS PTA DPR ≤-1.2 -1.1 to -0.4 -0.3 to 0.3 0.4 to 1.1≥1.2 PL (mo) ≤-1.2-4.2-3.0-2.9-2.1-0.8 -1.1 to -0.4-3.8-2.5 -1.7-0.6 -0.3 to 0.3-3.7-2.5 -1.6-0.6 0.4 to 1.1-3.3-1.9-2.2-1.4-0.3 ≥1.2-2.8-1.5-1.7-0.90.0

44. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (44) Percent of cows culled for reproductive reasons by sire-mgs PTA DPR group Sire PTA DPR MGS PTA DPR ≤-1.2 -1.1 to -0.4 -0.3 to 0.3 0.4 to 1.1≥1.2 (% culled) ≤-1.213.312.812.511.811.3 -1.1 to -0.412.812.312.211.410.9 -0.3 to 0.312.712.212.011.210.8 0.4 to 1.112.211.711.610.810.4 ≥1.211.811.311.010.610.0

45. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (45) H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (45) Conclusions

46. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (46) Recommendations to breeders l Usual recommendation: Don’t select bulls solely on one trait because many traits have economic value l Consider economic value of all performance traits in your own market when making genetic choices l Dairies with seasonal calving should find an index that puts more weight on daughter fertility than those recommended for the general industry

47. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (47) Selection for bull fertility l Breeding to bulls with higher conception rates returns a profit fairly quickly w Premium of $2 could be paid for semen per 1% improvement in fertility w Thus, a unit of semen from bull with ERCR of +2 is worth $8 more than a unit from bull with ERCR of −2 l Use bull fertility as a secondary selection trait after picking bulls on their economic indexes

48. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (48) Selection for cow fertility l Selection for improved fertility will pay off, even though the benefit is delayed for 3 years l Choose your sires based on lifetime economic merit that includes daughter fertility, rather than for daughter fertility alone l However, producers with herd fertility problems could emphasize DPR extensively with little loss in overall net merit

49. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (49) Fertility emphasis l Service-sire fertility and DPR especially important for grazing herds with seasonal calving l Use of a few bulls that average 3.0% for PTA DPR (equivalent to a decrease of 12 DO) could neutralize much of genetic decline in fertility from use of high-yield bulls for 40 years l Select for overall merit based on genetic- economic index appropriate for your situation

50. H.D. Norman 2008 NDHIA San Antonio (50) Thank you!