1. Modeling volcanic and marine emissions for Hawaii Air Quality Forecast 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory1 Daniel Tong*, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Mo Dan, Ariel Stein, Daewon Byun NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), Silver Spring, MD 20910 Xiaoming Liu and Kent Hughes NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), Camp Spring, VA Andrew Jeff Sutton, Tamar Elias, James Kauahikaua USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hawaii National Park, HI 96718 * Email: daniel.tong@noaa.gov Acknowledge: Jianping Huang of NCEP for helps with model simulations; US EPA and CSC for providing emission inventories and spatial surrogates; NOAA ARL AQUEST group for technical support and discussion.

2. Hawaii Air Quality Forecast 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory2 Hawaii domain: area, mobile, point; biogenic emissions; Sea-salt emissions; Volcanic emissions? Marine emissions?

3. 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory3 More details at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/AQChangelogOE.html Anthropogenic Emission:  Area, mobile, and point emissions based on EPA NEI 2005 Natural Emission:  Biogenic emissions by BEIS 3.14 and USGS LULC data (H. Kim);  Sea-salt emissions along coast lines (B. Wang); Anthropogenic & biogenic Emission in Hawaii

4. A Review of Approaches for Marine Isoprene Emissions 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory4  Shaw et al. (2003):  Palmer & Shaw (2005):  Gantt et al. (2009): E iso - Isoprene emission; [Chl-a] - Isoprene emission; V – euphotic water volume; EF – Emission factor; k AS – exchange coeff.; C W – isop. conc. in water H – Henry’s law constant; C A – isop. conc. in the air P – isoprene production; H max – euphotic zone height; Z ML – mixing layer height; k i – chemical reaction rate for oxidant i; k bio – bacterial loss rate; L MIX – loss due to downward mixing;

5. Estimating marine Isoprene Emissions 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory5  Overall emission flux into the atmosphere (Palmer and Shaw, 2005):  Determine C W: (Palmer and Shaw, 2005)(Revised based on Gantt et al.)  Derive H max: (Gantt et al. 2009) I 0 – ground radiatioin; K490 – defuse attenuation coefficient in water

6. 6 Chlorophyll-a and K490  Sensor/Satellite: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua  Data Processing Levels (NOAA CoastWatch http://coastwatch.noaa.gov) : - Level 1: NOAA obtains data from NASA GSFC in 5-minute granules, and process to geolocated, calibrated radiances - Level 2: Processed to derived MODIS data products (Chl-a, K490, nLw, etc.) - Level 3: Products are mapped to the CoastWatch geographic regions  Algorithms (NOAA CoastWatch): – Chlorophyll-a concentration: OC3 Algorithm – Diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (K490): J. Mueller Algorithm Chlorophyll -aK490

7. 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory7 Sensitivity to input parameter: K 490 Raw Daily [Chl-a] and K 490 K 490 cut-off (= 0.016)

8. 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory8 Sensitivity to input parameter: [Chl-a] Daily [Chl-a] and K 490 Monthly [Chl-a] and K 490 Using monthly, instead of daily, average [Chl-a] and K 490 reveals larger source area for marine isoprene emissions.

9. Terrestrial vs. marine isoprene emissions 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory9 Land EmissionMarine Emission (Preliminary Results)  Monthly [Chl-a] and K 490 ;  K 490 cut-off (= 0.016);  Hourly ground radiation (I 0 );

10. 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory10 A pulse of magma moving through Kīlauea's east rift zone Volcano SO 2 Emissions in Hawaii

11. Kilauea Volcano over the Hawaii Island 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory11 (Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov)

12. Methodology for Modeling Volcanic Emissions 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory12 In-Situ SO 2 Measurement Daily web update Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Emission Processing Pre- processor NOAA Air Resources Lab  SO 2 measurement Correlation Spectrometer (COSPEC);  Simple plume rise: Distributed from ground to 100 m above;

13. 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory13  Multiple and moving emitting points;  Emitting point below surface;  Dynamic magma movement;  Difficult to implement plume rise algorithms, such as Briggs (1972). ~130 m Plume Rise of Volcanic Emissions Make it simple since we know so little about it…

14. Kilouea SO 2 Emissions 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory14 (Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov)

15. Model Configurations 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory15  CMAQ  CB05-AQ-AERO4 gas, aqueous and aerosol chemistry  Domains  80 x 52 grid cells  Horizontal resolution : 12x12 km 2  Vertical level : 22 layers  Meteorological inputs  NAM WRF- NMM 12 km  Lateral boundary conditions (Fantine Ngan)  GEOS-Chem precursors with Hilo monthly mean ozonesonde  Volcano SO2 emissions (July 24 – 29, 2010):  Summit Emissions: 650 - 800 tons/day;  East Rift Zone: ~400 tons/day;

16. 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory16 Effects on Air Quality SO 2 O3O3 SulfateNitrate H2O2H2O2

17. Concluding Remarks 10/24/2015Air Resources Laboratory17  Methods to estimate near real-time emissions from two additional natural sources: volcano and marine phytoplankton.  Due to its unique emission pattern and reliable measurements, SO 2 emissions from Kilauea volcano can be incorporated into the NAQFC system;  In comparison, marine phytoplankton emissions are more challenging to estimate due to both input data quality and lack of knowledge on how to deal with these uncertainties.