1. Biodiversity and Economic Development in Northern Australia Steve Morton

2. CSIRO Threatened ecosystems National Land and Water Resources Audit

3. CSIRO Mammal range contraction National Land and Water Resources Audit

4. CSIRO Landscape stress Stress index includes: vegetation salinity pests and weeds threatened species and ecosystems National Land and Water Resources Audit

5. CSIRO What’s the biodiversity trend? Downward Australia-wide Why? - grazing - fire - introduced pests and weeds - land-clearing

6. CSIRO Two questions about biodiversity Does biodiversity matter? - ecosystem goods and services - clean water - soil structure and fertility - pest control - aesthetics and morality What further pressures will occur? - land development scenarios

7. CSIRO Decision points for land and water futures Michael Dunlop, Graham Turner, Barney Foran, and Franzi Poldi Scenarios for the next 50-100 years, and a long-term view of natural resource use Built from the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework, a physical model of our economy

8. CSIRO Water extraction from the Murray- Darling Basin

9. CSIRO Area cleared in Australia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 185119011951200120512101 Area (Mha)

10. CSIRO The species-area curve

11. CSIRO

12. Agriculture’s economic contribution

13. CSIRO Surface runoff

14. CSIRO Dryland agriculture scenario Investment in dryland agriculture Expand northern agriculture Slowing in land degradation Decrease in irrigation Increase in river health

15. CSIRO Irrigated agriculture scenario Reorganise irrigation in south Increase higher value crops, decrease pasture and rice Major expansion in north: cotton, sugar, hort More agro-forestry, conservation Major improvements in land based natural resource issues Southern rivers remain stressed

16. CSIRO Post-agriculture scenario Reduction in dryland and irrigated areas Reinvent agricultural systems Expansion of new industries

17. CSIRO Northern dryland agriculture

18. CSIRO Northern irrigated agriculture

19. CSIRO Northern water use

20. CSIRO Australian agriculture

21. CSIRO Biodiversity consequences Northern development will have biodiversity impacts - future change is inevitable Challenges can be anticipated and managed if we are prepared to face up to them Knowledge is the key! Knowledge gaps exist – scenarios can help set priorities here Will we do it right?