1. THE DECEMBER 26, 2004, SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE

3. The process of subduction that has created Indonesia through volcanic activity, also makes it dangerous. Burma Microplate Sumatra Indian Plate

4. INDIAN PLATE MOVES NORTH COLLIDING WITH EURASIA

7. COMPLEX PLATE BOUNDARY ZONE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Northward motion of India deforms all of the region Many small plates (microplates) and blocks

10. Note the split in the seismicity into separate thrust and strike-slip faulting.

11. The Indian plate subducts beneath the Burma microplate at about 50 mm/yr Earthquakes occur at the plate interface along the Sumatra arc (Sunda trench) These are spectacular & destructive results of many years of accumulated motion

12. Courtesy of W.-Y. Kim

13. STAGE 1: INTERSEISMIC: India subducts beneath Burma microplate at about 50 mm/yr Fault interface is locked

14. STAGE 1: INTERSEISMIC: India subducts beneath Burma microplate at about 50 mm/yr Fault interface is locked STAGE 2: EARTHQUAKE (COSEISMIC): Fault interface slips, overriding plate rebounds, releasing accumulated motion

15. STAGE 1: INTERSEISMIC: India subducts beneath Burma microplate at about 50 mm/yr Fault interface is locked STAGE 2: EARTHQUAKE (COSEISMIC): Fault interface slips, overriding plate rebounds, releasing accumulated motion HOW OFTEN MIGHT THEY OCCUR? Fault slipped ~ 10 m = 10000 mm 10000 mm / 50 mm/yr ≈ 200 yr (Last BIG one was in 1833) Faults aren’t exactly periodic for reasons we don’t understand.

16. Examples of seismograms, showing the ground motions recorded at different locations around the world as a function of time. Note how long in duration these P waves are.

18. MODELING THESE SEISMOGRAMS shows how slip varied along the fault plane. Most slip along an area ~400 km long Maximum slip ~ 20 m [Contours show time, in seconds] Courtesy of C. Ji

19. TWO VIEWS OF THE PART OF THE SUMATRA SUBDUCTION ZONE THAT SLIPPED Seismogram analysis shows most slip in southern 400 km Aftershocks show slip extended almost 1200 km Courtesy of C. Ji

20. For comparison, a magnitude 5 earthquake would rupture a patch roughly the size of New York City's Central Park.

21. Seismograms show the seismic waves wrapping around the Earth many times. Courtesy of R. Aster

22. For a large earthquake, seismic waves will continue to circle the Earth for weeks, making it reverberate like a gong. Courtesy of J. Tromp

23. For a large earthquake, seismic waves will continue to circle the Earth for weeks, making it reverberate like a gong. (Earth’s lowest “fundamental” note, with a period of ~54 minutes, is an E, twenty octaves below middle E on a piano.) Courtesy of J. Tromp

24. Courtesy of M. Van Camp

25. Raw Gravimeter Record Filtered to Show 0S0 and 0S2 0S0 = Blue 0S2 = Green 0S0 “Beats” are due to mode splitting. Courtesy of M. Van Camp

26. Courtesy of S. Stein and E. Okal

27. The increasing energy with ultralong periods suggests an enormous “slow” earthquake.

28. EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE 9.3 Energy released ≈ 65 × 10 17 Joules, or 1,550,000 kilotons (1,550 megatons) of TNT, or the equivalent of 75,000 Hiroshima bombs. Courtesy of IRIS

29. LocationDate Magnitude 1.Chile1960 05 22 9.5Chile 2.West Coast of Northern Sumatra2004 12 26 9.3West Coast of Northern Sumatra 3.Prince William Sound, Alaska1964 03 28 9.2Prince William Sound, Alaska 4.Andreanof Islands, Alaska1957 03 09 9.1Andreanof Islands, Alaska 5.Kamchatka1952 11 04 9.0Kamchatka 6.Off the Coast of Ecuador1906 01 31 8.8Off the Coast of Ecuador 7.Rat Islands, Alaska1965 02 04 8.75Rat Islands, Alaska 8.Assam – Tibet1950 08 15 8.6Assam – Tibet 9/10.Kamchatka1923 02 03 8.5 9/10.Banda Sea, Indonesia1938 02 01 8.5Banda Sea, Indonesia Top Ten List of Earthquakes in the Past 100 Years.

30. This one earthquake comprises more than ½ of the total energy released by earthquakes during the past 30 years! Courtesy of G. Ekstrom New Okal & Stein value

31. VERTICAL UPLIFT HORIZONTAL MOTION Courtesy of C. Ji

32. TSUNAMI - water wave generated by earthquake

33. IN DEEP OCEAN tsunami has long wavelength, travels fast, small amplitude - doesn’t affect ships AS IT APPROACHES SHORE, it slows. Since energy is conserved, amplitude builds up - very damaging

34. TSUNAMI SPEED IN DEEP WATER of depth d c = (gd) 1/2 g = 9.8 m/s 2 d = 4000 m c = 200 m/s = 720 km/hr = 450 m/hr Tsunami generated along fault, where sea floor displaced, and spreads outward Reached Sri Lanka in 2 hrs, India in 2-3 Courtesy of K. Sataki

35. Tsunami waves bend around “obstacles” like islands and peninsulas in a process called DIFFRACTION.

36. The Tsunami Eventually Crossed All Oceans

37. SLOW FAST Tsunami waves also bend in a process called REFRACTION (according to “Snell’s Law”) as water depth & thus speed changes.

38. RAYS BEND AS WATER DEPTH CHANGES DENSITY OF RAYS SHOWS FOCUSING & DEFOCUSING 1 hour

39. Seen safely from high ground, a wave of the 1960 Chilean tsunami pours into Onagawa, Japan.

40. 1. 1797: A magnitude 8.4 earthquake near the central part of the western Sumatra generated a tsunami that flooded Padang. More than 300 fatalities. 2. 1833: A magnitude 8.7 earthquake near the south coast of the western Sumatra triggered a huge tsunami that flooded the southern part of western Sumatra. Numerous victims. 3. 1843: A tsunami that came from the southeast and flooded the coast of the Nias Island. Many fatalities. 4. 1861: A magnitude 8.5 earthquake affected all the western coast of Sumatra. Several thousand fatalities. 5. 1881: A magnitude 7.9 earthquake in the Andaman Island region generated a 1 m high tsunami on India’s eastern coast. 6. 1883: Krakatau explosion. 36,000 fatalities, primarily on the islands of Java and Sumatra. 7. 1941: A magnitude ~7.7 Adaman Islands earthquake. Anecdotal accounts exist of a tsunami, however, no official records exist. Previous Tsunamis in the Sumatra Region

41. Giant Eruption of Krakatau in 1883.

43. Tsunamis are highly DISPERSIVE.

44. NY Times ….this has very bad consequences!

46. Aftermath of the 1960 Chilean tsunami in Hilo, Hawaii, where the tsunami caused 61 deaths.

47. Waterfront area in Crescent City, California, flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami. Here, the tsunami caused more than $30,000 in damage. However, damage was much more severe 600 miles to the south in the Los Angeles area, where the tsunami killed one person and caused from $500,000 to $1,000,000 in damage, including the sinking of 30 boats.

48. Because seismic waves travel much faster (km/s) than tsunamis, rapid analysis of seismograms can identify earthquakes likely to cause major tsunamis and predict when waves will arrive. TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM Deep ocean buoys can measure wave heights, verify tsunami and reduce false alarms.

49. Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM, in red) and VLBI length of day (LOD, in blue) measurements are strongly correlated over periods of one week to several years (storms, atmospheric currents, El Nino, etc.). Ocean tides and currents modulate the Earth's orientation on periods of a day and shorter. The model (red) follows the VLBI measurements (blue) closely. Predicted change in length of day due to the Sumatra earthquake: -2.676 microseconds (not verifiable?) Changes in Length of Day (due to mass redistribution)

50. The change in polar motion excitation from the earthquake is predicted to be very small, about 0.82 milliarcseconds (also not observable?).

52. “CIVILIZATION EXISTS BY GEOLOGICAL CONSENT” The same geologic processes that make our planet habitable also make it dangerous