1. Wade Cole Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2791 E-mail: wcole@wsipp.wa.gov WSIPP publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov Relating WASL Completion and Performance to High School Graduation Early Learning & K–12 Education Committee Early Learning & K–12 Education Committee November 14, 2007 1 of 19

2. Washington State Institute for Public Policy Created by the 1983 Washington Legislature Mission: carry out non-partisan research on projects assigned by the Legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors Senator Karen Fraser Secretary Robin Arnold-Williams, DSHS Representative Fred Jarrett DirectorVictor Moore, OFM Representative Phyllis Kenney Sandra Archibald, University of Washington Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles Andrew Bodman, Western Washington Univ. Representative Skip Priest Robert Rosenman, Washington State Univ. Senator Pam RoachLes Purce, The Evergreen State College Representative Helen Sommers Ken Conte, House Office of Program Research Senator Mark SchoeslerRichard Rodger, Senate Committee Services 2 of 19

3. Class of 2008  Completion and met-standard rates by demographic characteristics  Results as of summer 2006 (first WASL retake)  Emphasis on reading and writing Class of 2005  Graduation rates by WASL performance  Statistical analyses of WASL completion, met-standard, and graduation rates  Use results from the Class of 2005 to project graduation rates for the Class of 2008 Presentation Outline 3 of 19

4. Class of 2008 enters 9th grade Class of 2008 enters 10th grade Class of 2008 enters 11th grade Class of 2008 enters 12th grade 10th-grade WASL Summer WASL retake 10th-grade WASL Autumn 2004 Spring 2005 Summer 2005 Autumn 2005 Spring 2006 Summer 2006 Autumn 2006 Spring 2007 Summer 2007 Autumn 2007 Spring 2008 Summer WASL retake WASL Timeline Class of 2008 4 of 19

5. Completion Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 91%93% 83%82%85% 5% 4% 11%10%9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% TotalAsianWhiteAfrican Am. Native Am. Hispanic Completed Reading and Writing Completed Reading Completed Writing Completed neither 68,8785,69151,4932,9891,9196,622 3,862 2,257 379194722 5 of 19 264 Tested in neither Tested in Writing only Tested in Reading only Tested in Reading & Writing

6. 93% 83%82%85% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FemaleMaleNot F/R meal F/R meal Not ELLELL 92%94%92% 4%5% 90%85%78% 6%16%8% 4% Completion Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 34,51750,22966,36734,36118,6492,508 3,3552,2215041,810 2,052 1,641 6 of 19 Tested in neither Tested in Writing only Tested in Reading only Tested in Reading & Writing

7. 75%80%79%57%56%52% 7% 4% 6% 8% 10% 5% 9% 8% 14%11%10%26%25%30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% TotalAsianWhiteAfrican Amer. Native Amer. Hispanic Met standard in Reading and Writing Met standard in Reading Met standard in Writing Met standard in neither Met-Standard Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 56,3934,85343,9502,0471,0784,057 9,9586635,4799304722,314 5,130 267 3,561 293 199 770 4,106 312 2,626 316 170 646 7 of 19 Met Std in neither Met Std in Writing only Met Std in Reading only Met Std in Reading & Writing

8. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 80%82%77% 4% 5% 7% 6% 4% 5% 10%9%11% 24%57%70% 10% 9% 10% 5% 25%55%16% FemaleMaleNot F/R meal F/R meal Not ELL Met-Standard Rates in Reading and Writing Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006) 29,84244,04755,60178912,34626,551 3,8064,5558,1685,4031,7876,152 1,603 2,917 4,793 2,157 2,233 3,788 2,213 337 3,527 1,873 318 1,949 8 of 19 Met Std in neither Met Std in Writing only Met Std in Reading only Met Std in Reading & Writing

9. Class of 2005

10. 15.4% 90.7% 50.3% 87.6% 42.4% 85.6% 85.1% 37.5% 89.1% 48.3% 78.4% 0%20%40%60%80%100% Completed Did not complete Met std RWM Did not meet std RWM Met std RW Did not meet std RW Met std R Did not meet std R Met std W Did not meet std W Met std M Did not meet std M What Proportion of Students Who Completed and Met-Standard on the WASL Graduated? Class of 2005 (20,353) (56,452) (44,876) (38,888) (38,393) (52,725) (24,426) (26,002) (41,990) (42,485) (28,153) (60,525) 14,640 37.7% 3,128 28,402 19,022 14,409 25,485 22,159 31,539 35,921 36,152 25,076 47,433 10 of 19 Graduation rate

11. 49% 59% 67% 61% 78% 86% 88% 85% 92% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ReadingWritingMath High School Graduation Rates by 10th-Grade WASL Levels Class of 2005 Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 Level 1 Level 2Level 3Level 4 Level 2Level 4 11 of 19

12. 10th-Grade WASL Scores by Graduation Status Class of 2005 1916 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Writing 414 400 389 368 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 ReadingMath GraduatedDid not graduate 12 of 19

13. 13 of 19 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) Grade point average WASL Completion WASL Met Std -0.4-0.2 0 0.20.40.60.8 More LikelyLess Likely Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates Reading and Writing, Class of 2005

14. 14 of 19 Grade point average Met standard in reading Met standard in writing Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) -0.4-0.2 0 0.20.40.60.8 More LikelyLess Likely Relative Strength of Associations: Graduation Class of 2005

15. 190230270310350390430470510550590 WASL scale scores Predicted graduation rate Math Reading 400 Predicted Graduation Rates Reading and Math, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA) 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Met StandardNot Met Standard 15 of 19

16. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% WASL writing scores Predicted graduation rate 024681012141618202224 Writing 17 Predicted Graduation Rates Writing, Class of 2005 (Analyses control for gender, race/ethnicity, low income, language, disability, and GPA) Met StandardNot Met Standard 16 of 19

17. Use data for 10th graders in 2002–03 to predict graduation rates in 2005: Graduate = f (Gender Race/Ethnicity Poverty Language Disability GPA WASL scores) Apply this prediction equation to data for 10th graders in the class of 2008 Predicted graduation rate: 74.1% Predicted Graduation Rate Class of 2008 17 of 19

18. In general, the same characteristics are associated with completing the WASL, meeting standard on the WASL, and graduation Students who did not complete the WASL were less likely to graduate Students who did not meet standard on the WASL were less likely to graduate Will graduation rates be affected by making the WASL a graduation requirement? Summary of Findings 18 of 19

19. Final statistical analysis of the WASL  Spring 2006  Summer 2006  Spring 2007 Final review of alternatives to the WASL  Multiple measures  Cultural appropriateness  Collection of Evidence implementation Evaluation of school-year Promoting Academic Success (PAS) Forthcoming Institute Reports 19 of 19

21. Percentage of Students Meeting WASL Standard Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2008 (as of Summer 2006)

22. Relative Strength of Associations: WASL Completion and “Met-Standard” Rates Reading, Writing, and Math, Class of 2005 -0.4-0.2 0 0.20.40.60.81.0 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) Grade point average WASL Completion WASL Met Std Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood

23. Grade point average Met standard in reading Met standard in writing Met standard in math Relative Strength of Associations: Graduation Class of 2005 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) -0.4-0.2 0 0.20.40.60.81.0 Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood

24. Met std in reading & writing Relative Strength of Associations: Graduation Class of 2005 Female (vs. Male) Asian (vs. White) African American (vs. White) Hispanic (vs. White) Native American (vs. White) Eligible for free/reduced-price meals (vs. not) English language learner (vs. not) Student has at least one disability (vs. none) Grade point average -0.4-0.2 0 0.20.40.60.81.0 Increased LikelihoodDecreased Likelihood