1. Visualization Techniques Useful For Planning - Ensley Township-

2. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Project Funded by the Fremont Area Community Foundation Project Goal: To integrate existing geographic information into cohesive and useful land use decision-making tools for practical application by local units of government

3. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township ArcGIS – ESRI, Inc Scenario 360 / CommunityViz – Orton Family Foundation, Placeways Impervious Surface Analysis Tool (ISAT) – NOAA L –THIA (Long Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment) – Purdue University Community Build-Out – Center of Rural Studies, Vermont Population Allocation Model – AWRI What if? – Community Analysis and Planning Systems (University of Akron Ohio) SLUETH (Land Transformation Model) – University of Santa Barbara

4. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township

5. Population Allocation Model

6. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model Population Growth Potential Land Availability Index Land Desirability Index

7. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model

8. Population Change YearPopulation 1960937 19701,152 19801,461 19901,984 20002,496 Source: US Census Bureau

9. Historical Population of Ensley Township

10. Population Increase by Decade

11. Population Projections Using Mean Annual Growth Rate from 1990-2000 (2.58 percent)

12. Population Projections Using Mean Annual Growth Rate from 1960-2000 (4.16 percent)

13. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model

14. Land Cover Change 1978/1998 Land Cover Type1978 (Acres)1998 (Acres) Urban4201621 Agricultural1253411092 Open Field17851302 Forest78818568 Wetland381389 Water214241

15. Land Cover Change 1978/1998

16. Comparison of Urban Land Uses-1978/1998

17. Urban Sprawl Index for Selected Townships Note: An area is considered to be "sprawling" when the rate of land consumption exceeds the rate of population growth. This Urban Sprawl Index compares the relative amount of change in acreage used for development to the relative amount of change in population. The higher the index value the greater the "sprawl" in the Township. A value of 1 or less indicates no sprawl has occurred.

18. Land Available for Development based on 1998 Land Cover Analysis Agricultural-10,049 acres Open Field-1,178 acres Forest-8,177 acres Total Area Available for Development- 19,404 acres

19. Land Area Required for Projected Residential Growth Mean Annual Population Growth Rate: 4.16 Assumed Population Density (people/acre): 1.91 Decade Expected Population Increase Land Area Required (Acres) 2000-20101,038521.19 2010-20201,470738.11 2020-20302,0821,045.4 2030-20402,9471,479.73 Total7,5373,784.43

20. Projected Residential Growth in Acres Mean Annual Population Growth Rate: 4.16 Assumed Population Density (people/acre): 1.91

21. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model

22. Land Desirability Index – Factor Maps –Distance to roads –Distance to other residential land use –Distance to water –Degree of slope –Soil suitability for septic systems –Distance to forests

23. Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) –Pairwise comparison of all factors –Statistical assessment based on 9-point continuous scale –If you think proximity to roads is more important than septic suitability, how much more important is it?

24. Projected Residential Growth 2000-2010

25. Projected Residential Growth 2010-2020

26. Projected Residential Growth 2020-2030

27. Projected Residential Growth 2030-2040

28. Land Area Required for Projected Residential Growth Mean Annual Population Growth Rate: 4.16 Assumed Population Density (people/acre): 1.91 Decade Expected Population Increase Land Area Required (Acres) 2000-20101,038521.19 2010-20201,470738.11 2020-20302,0821,045.4 2030-20402,9471,479.73 Total7,5373,784.43

29. Land Lost to Projected Residential Growth 2010/2040 (in acres) 2010202020302040Total Agricultural2383866198162059 Open Field5378100168399 Forest2302783335001341 Mean Annual Population Growth Rate: 4.16 Assumed Population Density (people/acre): 1.91

30. Projections calculated using a population growth rate of 4.16 (the mean annual growth rate from 1960-2000) and assumes a population density (people/acre) of 1.91 Land area required for projected population growth by 2040 is equivalent to almost 3700 football fields Would occupy approximately 16.5% of Ensley Township’s total land area and 18% of total land area available for development Visualization Techniques - Ensley Township Population Allocation Model

31. Community Build-Out Analysis

32. Community Build-Out Analysis Version 2.0 University of Vermont – Center for Rural Studies Addison County Regional Planning Commission Lewis Creek Association C.L. Davis Consulting Associates, LTD

33. Community Build-Out Analysis Version 2.0 Designed to help communities project future consequences of their zoning ordinances Allows the review of alternatives and perhaps can lead to better methods of meeting community goals and objectives Basic acreage based build-out where zoning district acreage is tabulated by parcel to determine development density

34. Model Requirements The model runs as an extension program to ArcView GIS At a minimum you need…. 1.Zoning Districts and minimum lot size standards 2.Parcel ownership 3.Location of existing building structure Single-family residential Farmstead Confined Feeding Operation Industrial Operation Also, can consider road frontage specifications and road right-of-way locations along with lot size standards.

35. Additional Model Data Needs To build development scenarios you need to identify constraints to development… Which can include natural features such as these…. 1.Waterbodies 2.Steep Slopes 3.Wetlands 4.Lowland Forests

36. Additional Model Data Needs To build development scenarios you need to identify constraints to development… Which can include other features such as these…. 1.State owned lands 2.Township owned lands (cemeteries, parks, natural areas etc.) 3.Existing commercial sites (golf courses etc.) 4.Large holdings of private lands (assuming they are not available for large scale development) 5.Existing farmstead and farm operations like confined feeding (assuming they will stay farmland)

37. Additional Model Data Needs To build development scenarios you need to identify constraints to development… Which can include valuable important natural resource features such as… 1.Prime farmland soils 2.Groundwater recharge areas 3.Stream Buffers

38. Topography – steep slopes Hydrography – lakes, ponds, rivers, creeks Natural Lands – wetlands, forests, openfields Working Lands – agricultural lands, forest lands, mineral resources Groundwater recharge areas Parcel boundaries Prime farmland soils State and Township lands Lands that support built infrastructure GIS Data Layers

39. Constraints to Development

40. Scenario #1 Zoning as is with no constraints

41. Scenario #2 Zoning as is with undevelopable land constraints

42. Scenario #3 Zoning as is with undevelopable land and important natural resource features constraints

43. Model Results - Tabular Existing Units Max Dev Units Possible Developable Acres Units lost due to Constraints Acres of No Development Scenario 1933218002190200 Scenario 2873197312015920241818 Scenario 387310289106331126311495

44. Additional Scenarios 1.Add new zoning districts and minimum lot size requirements 2.Add additional natural resource features that can reduce development potential 3.Instead of no development areas use density reduction requirements

45. L-THIA Analysis

46. Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment L-THIA www.ecn.purdue.edu/runoff L-THIA – An analytical modeling tool for planners, developers and natural resource managers which provides estimates of changes in runoff, recharge and non-point source pollution for a geographic area resulting from past, current and projected land use changes.

47. Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment L-THIA Land Use and Cover Soils (Hydrologic Soil Group) Precipitation Data (long-term climate) Data Inputs - (ArcView shapefiles):

48. Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment L-THIA Data Outputs - (Arc/ Info Grid files): SCS Curve Number (Composite derived from Land Use and Soil type) Runoff depth and Runoff volumes Non-point source pollution estimates of Total N, TKN-N, NO 3 -NO 2,Total and Dissolved P, Suspended and Dissolved Solids, Total Metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), BOD and COD.

49. L-THIA Data Inputs: Land Use and Cover Ensley Township 1978

50. L-THIA Data Inputs: Land Use and Cover Ensley Township 1998

51. L-THIA Data Inputs: Land Use and Cover Ensley Township 2040 (Projected from PAM)

52. L-THIA Data Inputs: Hydrologic Soil Groups

53. L-THIA Data Inputs: Precipitation Data 60 Years of Daily Surface Rainfall Data National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

54. L-THIA Data Outputs: Curve Number Values -2040 The higher the CN score the more impervious the surface, the greater the runoff potential

55. L-THIA Data Outputs: Runoff Depths (inches/grid cell) -1978 Runoff Depths can be calculated as a Single Storm Event or as an Average Annual using composite CN.

56. L-THIA Data Outputs: Runoff Volumes (m 3 /grid cell) -1998

57. L-THIA Outputs: Non-Point Source (NPS) Pollutant Loadings - 2040

58. Total Nitrogen Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen Nitrate/Nitrite Total Phosphorus Dissolved Phosphorus Suspended Solids Dissolved Solids Total Lead Total Copper Total Zinc Total Cadmium Total Chromium Total Nickel BOD COD *(kg/grid cell)

59. Impervious Surface Analysis Tool (ISAT) NOAA Coastal Services Center

60. Using Imperviousness as a Water Quality Indicator Research has shown that the amount of imperviousness can estimate current and future quality of subwatersheds. Any percentage of imperviousness can make a subwatershed sensitive, but a threshold at about 10% impervious cover begins to impact the system. *Information based on research done by the Center for Watershed Protection

61. Ensley Township 1978 Percent Imperviousness

62. Ensley Township 1998 Percent Imperviousness

63. Ensley Township 2010 Percent Imperviousness

64. Ensley Township 2020 Percent Imperviousness

65. Ensley Township 2030 Percent Imperviousness

66. Ensley Township 2040 Percent Imperviousness

67. SiteBuilder 3D MultiGen Paradigm

68. 1998 Image Mosaic draped over a DEM to create a 3D base terrain of Ensley Township

69. Ortho Image and DEM overlaid to create Base Terrain

70. Other Layers are added such as trees, roads, rivers, etc.

71. Existing residential buildings are added to the 3D View

72. 120th Cypress Ave Ensley Center Ensley Township Hall

73. 120th Cypress Ave Ensley Center Ensley Township Hall

74. 120th Ensley Township Hall