1. Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications Greg Kiker Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept. P.O. Box 110570 Gainesville, FL 32611-0570 Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291 Email: gkiker@ufl.edu GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 02 Sept 05

2. Overview of the talk  GECAFS: An Integrated View of Food Systems  Decision Support Systems  Scenarios/DSS/Communication with GECAFS

3. Source: Paul Raskin

4. Decision Support

5. Traditional Decision Support Systems  Many definitions, many visions, many versions…  DSS Integrate Tools and Methodologies Method Descriptions and Tools Information Storage and Databases Models Visualization (examples: GIS, graphics, charts…) Decision analysis (examples: Adaptive management, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Trade-off analysis, Linear Programming)

6. Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators User-Defined “Slow and Fast” Time Steps Management Options “Warning Lights” Tabbed panes with several time series charts Mouse-driven Chart and Text Display Reset Button Example Supporting Tool: QnD System

7. Challenges in Building DSS  DSS almost always focus on one sector’s (or discipline’s) tools and concepts  Model integration is difficult and technically challenging  Not helpful in unearthing assumptions  Transparency versus Ease of Use  Integration with scenario planning and communication - “More gaps than links” (Brklacich, (happy hour) 2005)

8. Questions to Ask  Who will use this DSS? The decision-maker? Their assistants? Consultants/University/Government types? Teachers? NGO’s? Citizens? School Kids?  How do they currently make decisions?  What new techniques are they willing to explore?  What are their information, support and communication needs?

9. Talk about the system, goals, desires Explore current management options Gather initial maps/data Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities Genesis Session Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine Rough estimate of components, processes and data Simple information Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks Iterative Sessions 1…n Refine goals, objectives Explore current and possible management options Calibrate/Validate engine performance Revise Game View for relevant management information Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors Deployed QnD Model Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data More relevant information Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities DSS Development Methodology: QnD as an example

10. CARSEA Scenarios Neo-Plantation Economy Quantity Over Quality Growing Asymmetries Diversify Together Tourist visits, foreign investment, external prices, etc. Climate Scenarios Precipitation Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency Sea Level Rise QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0 Stochastic relationships Time series values Incremental change Socio-Economic Drivers Climatic Drivers QnD Scenarios Neo-Plantation with mild Climate Change Neo-Plantation with intense Climate Change Etc… Scenario Integration with Models: QnD as an example

11. Questions for You  Who will use this GECAFS DSS?  How do you or your constituents currently make decisions?  What new techniques are you willing to explore?  What are your information, support and communication needs? Training/Workshops? Reports? Web Tools?  What does transparency in decisions mean to you? What does it look like? What level of transparency is appropriate? And remember…you can always change your mind…

12. From Tony Clayton “Triage”Low ImpactHigh Impact Low ProbabilityIgnoreMonitor Risk of Critical Failure High ProbabilityLow priorityTop Priority Trickiest