1. FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson Strategic Futures Coaching National Council for Higher Education Valletta, Malta 27 th July 2007 Brian.brader@btinternet.com Mob: +44(0)7786 180923

2. FUTURE GENERATION Admin. issues Emergencies Facilities Phones

3. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA 9.30What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee

4. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA cont’d 11.45 Group activity: creating scenarios 12.30 LUNCH 13.15 Working with scenarios 14.00 The scenario toolkit 14.15Closing discussion 14.30 Close

5. FUTURE GENERATION What is Strategic Futures Analysis?

6. FUTURE GENERATION Characteristics Structured, evidence-based process Wide range of analytical tools Resilient and innovative strategies Neutral space for challenge Encourages broader dialogue

7. ….resilient and innovative strategy Resilient and innovative strategic plans Future a “Safe place” for challengingstrategicconversation Prioritisation for businessintelligence,Contingency trigger points Evidence and Analysis to….. Test strategic assumptions ID of priority uncertainties Core analysis on certainties FUTURE GENERATION

8. Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across Looking across – beyond usual sources Seeing things - you don’t normally see Beyond a single future to Implications for today’s decisions How to get relevant evidence (1) FUTURE GENERATION

9. How to get relevant evidence (2) Drivers of change: Social Technological Economic Environmental Political

10. FUTURE GENERATION How to get relevant evidence (3) V Importance (visibility) Time the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them Horizon 1: looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge Horizon 2: the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise. Horizon 3: The lens of now

11. The journey Purpose and context Senior sponsor Gathering evidence Analysis Communication Decision support FUTURE GENERATION

12. Combatting short-termism In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for horizon scanning to be embedded into the policy making process UK House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee 2006 FUTURE GENERATION

13. The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims Strategic context Synergy Capacity building WIST

14. FUTURE GENERATION UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products Sigma & Delta scans Projects (S&T trends, ATF, Identity management) Strategic Futures Coaching Strategic Futures Networking (FAN Club)

15. FUTURE GENERATION Analytical toolkit Systems mapping Scenarios Wind-tunnelling Force field analysis

16. FUTURE GENERATION Be realistic…

17. FUTURE GENERATION Questions?

18. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA 9.30What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee

19. Stories that describe how the world might look in the future  what’s different from today  what we need to do to be successful Based on an analysis of what’s driving change Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated Not predictions or forecasts Help decision makers imagine and manage the future better  identify what’s in their control  identify what isn’t  identify what needs to change to ensure future success Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world FUTURE GENERATION Scenarios…?

20. Sector Environment internal environment Contextual Environment Driving Forces Technological Economic Environmental Political Societal

21. Building Scenarios…? FUTURE GENERATION

22. AGENDA 9.30What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee

23. Sources… Leadership Foundation scenario workshops Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU) Long Term Opportunities and Challenges for the UK (HMT) The Futures Project (Scottish Executive) Empirical observation FUTURE GENERATION

24. An empowered ageing population …and an ageing crisis Under 20s declining in the UK Rising expectations Rising attainment Emergence of the ethical economy More single households Global economic migration Societal …and increasing in developing economies A widening gender gap

25. Mobile computing Lots of information Wireless cities Technological Changing work and work places Changing decision making Changing business models Rise of the technologicall y superior learner Skype Blogs You Tube AIM Second Life MySpace

26. The economics of scarcity or of plenty? Mobile investment Globalisation Labour mobility Increasing value of knowledge Importance of soft skills China Open source and distributed manufacturing Economic End of Doha? …and America Rising dependency ratio Slow or rapid transition to retirement Co-opetition

27. Oil depletion Water Wars Carbon neutral consumption Pressure to halt global warming Growth within environmental limits? Quest for sustainability Environmental Carbon credits? Right to mobility? Biofuels?

28. Evolution of the EU Contract between state and citizen e-Democracy Self improving public services Nanny state or light touch? Single Issue everything Policy divergence since devolution Rise of non state actors Step change in customer care Political Culture change Public service reform and competitivene ss Competing demands

29. FUTURE GENERATION FINAL DISCUSSION

30. FUTURE GENERATION Understanding context of strategic futures analysis Gathering evidence Analysis tools Using the output to improve strategy

31. FUTURE GENERATION Building scenarios Key drivers of change Uncertainties Select key variables Write the stories

32. FUTURE GENERATION Using scenarios Create dialogue Identify research goals Identify choices Define strategy

33. FUTURE GENERATION Continue the futures journey! Resources: Sigma scan: www.sigmascan.orgwww.sigmascan.org Delta scan: www.deltascan.orgwww.deltascan.org UK Horizon scanning centre : www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE /index.html Strategic futures analysis tool-kit : www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE /Good_Practice/Toolkit/Toolkit.html UK Department for Transport scenario planning tool-kit (produced by Waverley Management consultants): www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/futures/secsceniss/ ?version=1