1. September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 1 Commercial Sector Measure Quest Sources & Findings

2. September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 2 Goal Compile a modern list of measures Characterize key uncertainties Characterize the population to which the measures apply Identify range of cost-effectiveness

3. September 30, 2003Conservation Resources Advisonry Committee 3 List of Sources for Measures NPPC 4P Tellus for NEC Xenergy 2002 CA ACEEE Emerging Tech ACEEE Codes & Stand ACEEE Package Refrigeration Energy Trust Oregon LBNL Refrigeration LBNL Office Equipment NEEA RTF E-Source Tech Briefs USDOE

4. September 30, 20034 Results Slim on commercialized technological break throughs –But costs declining & quality increasing Several new applications and markets –Old technology applied to new “stock” More squishy stuff on the list –Design, controls, practices

5. September 30, 20035 New Technology Lighting –T5 and white LED still emerging US –Daylight dimming controls on the verge –0.8 w/sf is attainable in office redesign –CFL has commercial applications –Controls improving: sensors & switching –Biggest savings in integrated system design

6. September 30, 20036 New Technology Envelope: –Windows –Cool Roofs HVAC: –Demand control ventilation –EC Motors Process: –Aeration control, BacGen –High-velocity hand dryer

7. September 30, 20037 Old Tech on New “Stock” Refrigeration measures – Beverage vending machines; ice-makers; reach-ins; and beverage merchandisers. Savings 20-50%. Office Equipment Control –“Time clocks” on PC Networks, equipment circuits Packaged HVAC replaces built-up Duct sealing goes commercial

8. September 30, 20038 Seeing More Squishy Stuff: Its not just widgets any more Big savings require more human intervention in design, application & operation –Chiller optimization –Commissioning –HVAC control strategies –Integrated building design new & retrofit –Daylighting

9. September 30, 20039 Weak Links Estimates of saturation of efficient measures –Present adoption rate, program impacts –Data Sources: CBSA, evaluations, widget sales Estimates of natural penetration of measures –Future trends absent programs Codes & standards Market trends Life of equipment, business, remodel/renovation Estimates of program penetration

10. September 30, 200310 Weak Links (2) HVAC interactions & lighting changes –From 2.4 w/sf to 0.8 w/sf –Heating loads > cooling in PNW –High fraction of electric heat –Economizer interaction –No metered studies PNW

11. September 30, 200311 Weak Links (3) Range of cost-effectiveness –Large variance in cost-effectiveness of most measures depending on application –Leave some potential on the table by using average benefit/cost ratio cut-off –Seek estimate of distribution of savings per unit

12. September 30, 200312 Weak Links (4) Prototype Bias –Good for measure interaction and incremental measure cost-effectiveness –Poor for representing the base stock to which measures apply, distribution of savings and of cost-effectiveness

13. September 30, 200313 Summary: Xenergy 2002 CA July 2002 Existing buildings retrofit and ROB only PG&E, SCE and SDG&E Near-term potential only No heating or water heating measures About 50 measures

14. September 30, 200314 Xenergy 2002, CA

15. September 30, 200315 Xenergy 2002, CA

16. September 30, 200316 Xenergy 2002, CA

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18. September 30, 200318 Xenergy 2002, CA