1. Forecasting the Next 20 Years: Trans-Canada Corporation

2. Forecasting Is About Constraints On the surface, there are endless possibilities On close examination, the vast majority eliminate themselves –Probabilistically –Incompatible with other outcomes –Unsustainable in their own right Forecasting is the process of exclusion

3. Everything Must Be Benchmarked Very little is unprecedented Constantly recurring patterns –Economic –Social –Political Even consistent unpredictability has a consistency Find your place in the pattern

4. Believe What You See Be stupid: Don’t explain away your findings Be disciplined: Refuse to be diverted from your method Be confident: Constraints and benchmarks will guide you Be courageous: Stand by your forecasts even if they appear impossible

5. Financial Crisis Recessions are cyclical and inevitable Always commence with a financial meltdown The financial crisis is smaller than the Third World debt crisis, close to S&L crisis Therefore, this is the second- or third- worst recession since World War II Wasn’t the common view when we said it; still isn’t the common view, we still hold it

6. Major Losers In The Crisis Low net-worth to debt countries –Iceland –Eastern Europe Industrial exporting countries –China –Germany Major winners: Job exporters –United States –Canada

7. Geopolitical Consequences Weakening of China End of Islamic wars Resurgence of Russia and containment –Poland –Turkey –China as ally

8. Population Collapse Birth rates falling everywhere Dramatic increase in price of labor Decline in land prices New technologies –Medical –Robotics Surge in power consumption Space-based solar energy

9. Energy Dilemma Petrochemical weakness –Vulnerability of sources –Vulnerability of cost –Irrational price oscillations Solar energy –Space-based –Underwritten by U.S. Department of Defense –Strengthens geopolitical position

10. Geopolitics Of 21 st Century Centrality of American power –Atlantic-Pacific connection –Economic size –Control of the seas –Low population density Three challengers on Eurasia’s periphery –Japan –Turkey –Poland

11. Final Challenge: Mexico 13 th largest economy in the world 100 million+ population Access to U.S. market Demographics –Re-population of borderland –Nationalist challenge –Challenge for global heartland