1. 1 Interannual Variability of Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature in the Western North Atlantic Shelf and Slope, 1985-1999 M.S. Thesis Presentation Anne-Marie E.G. Brunner- Suzuki June 15 th, 2007

2. Introduction and Background

3. 3 Western North Atlantic Shelf and Slope Adapted from Chapman and Beardsley (1989). ; a) Smith et al.(1987); b) Collin and Dunbar(1964); c) Petrie and Anderson (1983); d) Drinkwater et al.(1979); e) Smith (1963); f) Rump et al. (1985); g) Beardsley et al. (1985) ‏

4. 4 The Slope Sea Transition zone between coastal waters and open ocean waters originating from the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyre meet and interact water mass variability associated with NAO variability Adapted from Csanady and Hamilton (1988) ‏ G76: Gatien, 1976 PD93: Petrie and Drinkwater 1993 ML57: McLellan 1957

5. 5 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ‏ From: http://www.gomoos.org/nao/page5.html Positive NAO Negative NAO High NAO: Decreased Labrador Current transport LSW to Cabot Strait Slope Sea dominated by WSW Northern Gulf Stream North Wall Myers et al., 1989; Petrie and Drinkwater, 1993; Han, 2002 Low NAO: Increased Labrador Current transport LSW as far south as MAB Southern Gulf Stream North Wall (Gatien, 1976; Flagg et al., 1998; Rossby, 1999; Greene and Pershing, 2001)

6. 6 Preliminary SST results Positive NAONegative NAO

7. NAO highlow increased Labrador Current transport decreased Labrador Current transport Warm, salty, nitrate-rich WSW in Slope Sea Cold, fresh, nitrate-depleted LSW in Slope Sea Gatien, 1976; Petrie and Drinkwater, 1993 Townsend, et al. 2004 Gulf Stream more northern Gulf Stream more southern Joyce, Gangopadhyay Increased Chla Decreased Chla Schollaert, et al. 2004 Increased Calanus f. Decreased Calanus f. Greene etal., 2003 Motivation or why it is interesting

8. Hypothesis Interannual variability of SST in the western North Atlantic Southwestward extent of Labrador Current Interannual Variability of Local Forcings (Wind, Qnet)‏ NAO

9. Data and Methods

10. 10 Data 15 years of satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer ADCP temperature data at M/V Oleander provided by Dr. C. Flagg Shipboard SST data at the Halifax section from the BIO database Gulf Stream North Wall and shelf slope frontal positions provided by Dr. K.Drinkwater and Dr. R.Pettipas. Local forcing is estimated using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) gridded reanalysis products: net heatflux Qnet (Qnet = sensible + latent + shortwave + longwave)‏ windmagnitude (W)‏ (W= sqrt (u^2+v^2))‏

11. Methods I Compute quality controlled, monthly SST, W and Qnet anomalies: monthly anomalies were computed, by subtracting individual long-term means from the 180 monthly means. Apply data to a bathymetry-following grid: spatially smoothing of the data by applying a coarse (628 bins) grid following shelf and slope Validate data with in situ data Conduct an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses for SST, Qnet and Wind to determine IAV of SST

12. Methods II Perform a regression analysis between the resulting EOF modes and Hurrell’s North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) seasonal index Perform a cross-correlation analysis Create a composited SSTA data set Compare sections along the shelf and slope to identify cold events Compute propagation speeds Conduct a Complex EOF analysis to study propagating signals for SSTA The goal was to identify and quantify cold intrusions into the Slope Sea.

13. Results

14. 14 Bathymetry following Grid

15. AVHRR SST and in situ SST Halfiax 27M/V Oleander RMS: 1.02 deg.C (83%)‏RMS: 1.34deg.C (81%)‏ In situ data are instantaneous, single measurements. AVHRR are monthly averages. Satellite measure skin temperature, ADCP at 6m depth, shipboard data are below surface; also data availability influences the results.

16. Results were evaluated using North's Rule of Thumb, a Monte Carlo test and spatial dependency test. Spatial EOF SST anomaly results

17. Principal Component

18. Regression Analysis Explained variance at zero lag between NAO and SST EOF modes 1-4 is low. R-Values

19. Cross-correlation The maximum influence of Qnet anomalies or W-anomalies onto SST anomalies is only 5%.

20. Onshelf-Offshelf Comparison 7 sections along the shelf results from the EOF- noise reduced composited data Different r-values Different dominant frequencies Red are onshelf regions, Black are offshelf

21. 21 Adapted from Drinkwater et al. (1999). 1 2 3 4 5 6 The classic 1997/1998 “Cold Event”

22. 22 Cold Events

23. 23 Bathymetry following Grid

24. 24 Cold Events 6cm/s – 20cm/s (here) ‏ 3cm/s (Houghton and Visbeck, 2002) 4cm/s (Mountain 2003; Bisagni et al, 2006) - shelf 7cm/s (Chapman and Beardsley, 1989) ‏ - shelfbreak 3;13cm/s ( Belkin, 2004) – observed only north of the Grand Banks; (1970s;1990s) ‏ mean current speed 9cm/s (Lazier and Wright, 1993; Pickart et al., 1999) -slope 12cm/s (Fratantoni and Pickart, in press) - slope 15cm/s (Flagg et al., 2006) - slope synoptic current speeds 35cm/s (Pickart et al., 1999; Flagg et al., 2006) ‏ Propagation Speed

25. Complex EOF 1 arrow length: amplitude arrow direction: phase amplitude phase

26. Complex EOF 2 arrow length: amplitude arrow direction: phase

27. Summary

28. Low correlation and significance levels suggest other mechanisms besides climate-related variability of surface forcing from winds and net heat flux related to the NAO are important in the shelf- slope region of the western North Atlantic ocean. Other mechanisms include horizontal advection and may include vertical mixing and may play a large role in controlling interannual variability of SST. Propagation speeds of different “cold events” range from 6cm/s to 20cm/s, thus being on the order of mean current speeds in the slope region. The 2 nd CEOF mode suggests faster propagation speeds in the Slope Sea, than onshelf. Most observed “cold events” are first seen offshore, than onshore, suggesting that the slope is driving the shelf. However, not so during 1992.

29. CEOF 1 exhibits northeastward propagation of SSTA, possibly indicating the importance of the separation of the Gulf Stream from the shelf break. CEOF/EOF 2 is related to the cold intrusions from the north and it is negative during offshore positions of the shelf slope front. Results indicate, that observed SST IAV results from propagating temperature anomalies and is not caused by local forcings. The intrusion of LSW into the Slope Sea is important for the ecosystem of the North American continental shelf and Slope Sea as it is thought to influence biological production through a nitrate-controlled bottom-up control mechanism; i.e. inter- and intra-annual physical forcing controls the dynamics of phytoplankton and zooplankton and higher trophic levels.

30. Acknowledgments Dr.P.Cornillon (AVHRR data), Dr.C.Flagg (ADCP data), Dr.R.Pettipas (digitized SSF, GSNW position) for providing valuable data. Source of funding: NSF Grants OCE-0217122 and OCE- 0227679 under the joint NSF/NOAA US-GLOBEC Northwest Atlantic Georges Bank Program. My advisor Dr. J.J.Bisagni and my Thesis Committee Dr.A.Bower, Dr.A.Gangopadhyay, Dr.M.Zhou for their guidance and kind support in the course of this research. My fellow graduate students and many faculty at SMAST and UMassD My friends at SMAST and other places in this world My parents G.+Dr.C.Brunner and siblings J., C., F.Brunner and many other family members My husband N.Suzuki

31. Thank you all for your attention!