1. The Effect of the Number of Quarantine Officers and Vaccination on Changes in Death Rate in an Outbreak of Smallpox Joe Fetsch

2. Purpose While smallpox has been eradicated, reserves remain in case of an outbreak to use as a vaccine. If Variola Major was released on a population, many fatalities would result if effective measures were not taken. If this was done on a wider scale, resources may be spread too thin to handle the situation effectively – purpose is to quantify this minimum amount for control of an outbreak

3. Explanation of Purpose This project is intended to determine the effects of quarantine officers and immunization on the death rate of a given population of agents in which an outbreak of Variola occurs in a closed world scenario where agents are allowed to move randomly.

4. Other Projects Several government simulations involving Smallpox taking other variables into account have taken place, but no project has accounted for a limited supply of vaccinations and manpower Several programs have accounted for vaccination or quarantine, but few involve both and none involve alternate supplies of these resources

5. NetLogo Use NetLogo was used to develop a basic understanding of the disease modeling system, but will not be used to create the smallpox model NetLogo Virus Model

6. Smallpox Much research was done to fully understand the Variola virus in all forms and its effects on a population Child suffering from Smallpox

7. Each dot represents an Agent with a vision, intelligence, and a value describing the stage in which the disease progresses The disease has not yet been implemented, plan is to do this 2 nd and 3 rd quarters Project Structure The infection, after Prodrome phase, will then progress into a more mature phase: Ordinary Modified Malignant Hemorrhaging Variola Minor

8. Agent Movement The agents move in a fashion that accounts for the human instinct to avoid those covered in pustules and move towards those deemed to be able to provide protection or information Away from infected and towards officers This still maintains an element of randomness to account for ignorance often expressed in a human population even in case of peril

9. Movement Cont'd The agent movement will be affected by the quarantine officers who would direct them to safety or to an immunization site, determined by the officer as whichever has the greater value and practicality based on the location of the agents at the time. This can be used to help realize the maximum effectivity of a limited supply of quarantine officers and vaccination on a closed population in order to reduce the death rate of the population in which the outbreak takes place.

10. Visual Representation Green agents are healthy Yellow agents are in early stage where not contagious or visible Red agents are infected, contagious and visible Blue agents are immune Black agents are quarantine officers – they cannot become infected Sugarscape-based model

11. Timeline Research Smallpox to understand disease in order to better implement in program Using NetLogo, obtained a basic understanding of the model of infection Using Python, created basic model with agents and a 1-D vision and movement range to affect the influenced movement provided by the infected agents and quarantine officers

12. Changes in Plan Over time, while developing a full realization of the scale of the project, goal has been cut from a full simulation of the United States under such an outbreak to a localized area for practical purposes www.epa.gov

13. No Testing Because of the time invested into research, project has not progressed to the point where results can be drawn or a full simulation can be run. Man suffering from hemorrhagic smallpox also known as black pox