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ULSD Workshop November 20-21, 2002 Houston, TX Transition to 15 ppm ULSD
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2 Experiences to Draw on Annual RVP change over – since 1989
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3 Experiences to Draw on Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
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4 Experiences to Draw on Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
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5 Experiences to Draw on Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993 Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
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6 Experiences to Draw on Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993 Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
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7 After Further Review Annual RVP change over – since 1989 –Can produce blends below the maximum RVP to facilitate turn over
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8 After Further Review Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 –Plenty of room between maximum oxygen limit and minimum specification requirement
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9 After Further Review Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 –Very similar to RVP change over
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10 After Further Review Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998 –Again, very similar to RVP change over
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11 After Further Review Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998 Introduction of Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel – 1993 –Some things are the same –Some things are different
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12 After Further, Further Review Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel in 1993 will be the closest parallel for ULSD
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13 Things That Are The Same Introduction of new product
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14 Things That Are The Same Introduction of new product Drop dead compliance date
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15 Things That Are The Same Introduction of new product Drop dead compliance date Immediate demand for product
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16 Things That Are The Same Introduction of new product Drop dead compliance date Immediate demand for product Choices to make
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17 Things That Are The Same Introduction of new product Drop dead compliance date Immediate demand for product Choices to make Adjustments to operations
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18 Things That Are The Same Introduction of new product Drop dead compliance date Immediate demand for product Choices to make Adjustments to operations Division of facilities or new construction
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19 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed
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20 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
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21 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…
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22 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… Choices are short term
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23 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… Choices are short term Radical changes to operations
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24 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… Choices are short term Radical changes to operations Sulfur Credits
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25 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… Choices are short term Radical changes to operations Sulfur Credits Small refinery exclusion
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26 Things That Are Different Competing product still being marketed Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… Choices are short term Radical changes to operations Sulfur Credits Small refinery exclusion Degrees of magnitude 3000 – 500 vs 400 - 15
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27 Physical Transition, Initial staging June 1 – July ?
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28 Physical Transition, Initial staging June 1 – July ? Won’t be without problems
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29 Physical Transition, Initial staging June 1 – July ? Won’t be without problems We have “outs” at this point
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30 Physical Transition, Initial staging June 1 – July ? Won’t be without problems We have “outs” at this point –Downgrades – Little or no demand – Time
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31 Now Things Get Interesting July ? – August 31
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32 Now Things Get Interesting July ? – August 31 Pace of downstream conversions
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33 Now Things Get Interesting July ? – August 31 Pace of downstream conversions Who/how many will handle both products?
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34 Now Things Get Interesting July ? – August 31 Pace of downstream conversions Who/how many will handle both products? Price differential vs inventory
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35 Now Things Get Interesting July ? – August 31 Pace of downstream conversions Who/how many will handle both products? Price differential vs inventory Use of Credits?
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36 Now Things Get Interesting July ? – August 31 Pace of downstream conversions Who/how many will handle both products? Price differential vs inventory Use of Credits? Out of the wood work/None to be had
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37 September 1, 2006 A non-event
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38 September 1, 2006 A non-event –No overnight change
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39 September 1, 2006 A non-event –No overnight change –Production control, 80/20
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40 September 1, 2006 A non-event –No overnight change –Production control, 80/20 –No major distribution problems
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ULSD Workshop November 20-21, 2002 Houston, TX Transition to 15 ppm ULSD
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