1. Contact info: Jean-Pascal van Ypersele +32 10 47 32 97 vanyp@climate.be Ben Matthews +32 10 47 33 65 matthews@climate.be Institut d'astronomie et de géophysique G.Lemaître, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium www.climate.be Java Climate Model: jcm.chooseclimate.org About JCM ● Interactive model demonstrates cause-effect links from emissions to impacts ● Core science derived from IPCC-TAR, adjust parameters to explore uncertainty. ● Flexible scenarios stabilising concentration, forcing or temperature. ● Regional distributions of both historical responsibility and climate change fields. ● Available on the web, open-source code, extensive documentation and a graphical interface translated in 10 languages. 60 university students grouped in 17 delegations had the task to agree by consensus on a quantitative interpretation of Article 2, and a formula for funding adaptation. Some of them will present their experiences at this side event. The Java Climate Model, which they used to explore options and uncertainties, will also be presented. Such experiments help to implement Article 6 and may also highlight science and policy questions for future negotiations. We will also discuss how we might build on this experience, involving groups around the world. Those who have made, or consider similar experiments are especially encouraged to discuss them at this side event. COP9 Side-Event Linking Article 2 & Article 6 Experiences from a role-play of future climate negotiations with students from UCL Belgium, using the interactive Java Climate Model (jcm.chooseclimate.org) Friday 12 th, 1- 3pm Verona

2. The safe stabilisation level is a risk and value judgement which should involve participation by many stakeholders. 60 students had the task to agree by consensus on a quantitative interpretation of Article 2, and a formula for funding adaptation. They used the Java Climate Model to explore options and uncertainties. ● Negotiating mitigation and adaptation together helped to balance the North-South debate and may help to encourage honesty about the scientific uncertainties. ● Using the same model, delegates could present very different cases by selecting parameters and indicators. ● What indicator should we limit - concentrations, global temperature, sea-level, rates of change? ● A target later in the chain shifts the burden of uncertainty from adaptation towards mitigation. ● For both issues, various equity principles had to be considered (historical responsibility, capacity to act, need for development, uneven regional distribution of impacts, rights to share the atmosphere, etc.). ● Should the funding of adaptation be based on the polluter-pays principle,and how should capacity to pay be balanced against sufficiency to handle impacts? ● The political compromises were a multi-criteria stabilisation target and a multi-source adaptation fund that were challenging to interpret. Come to the side event to hear the result from some of the students themselves! “After this simulation of international negotiations, we discovered the great inertia and complexity that rule both the climatic and diplomatic systems, the latter maybe harder to model than the former. However we all felt that it was an original and exciting human experience” Such web models might provide a quantative framework for a global dialogue. Could we combine such tools and experience to link groups from all corners of the world? Article 6 (Any effective global agreement requires informed participation by many citizens. How to involve more people into the global dialogue?) Article 2 (Which dangerous climate impacts must we avoid, and with how much certainty? Hence, what is a safe level of stabilisation to avoid these impacts?)

3. COP9 Side-Event Linking Article 2 & Article 6 Experiences from a role-play of future climate negotiations with students from UCL Belgium, using the interactive Java Climate Model (jcm.chooseclimate.org) Friday 12 th, 1-3pm, Verona Could we find a safe level of stabilisation, with a fair formula for adaptation funds? How did we balance various climate indicators, equity principles, and scientific uncertainties? Could such experiments help train negotiators and catalyse the process? Could we use such a web model as a quantative framework for a global debate between students around the world? Contact: Jean-Pascal van Ypersele vanyp@climate.be, Ben Matthews matthews@climate.be