1. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 1 Jess Sponable AFRL/VA 24 May 2006 Military Space Access Activities forCOMSTAC

2. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Predicting the Future Disclaimer - Or Beware What the Experts Claim - “What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?”  The Quarterly Review, England, March 1825 “Man will not fly for fifty years.”  Wilbur Wright, 1901 “ Even considering the improvements possible…the gas turbine could hardly be considered a feasible application to airplanes…”  U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 1940 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. ”  Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “Man will never reach the Moon regardless of all future scientific advances.”  Dr. Lee DeForest, 1957 “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”  Bill Gates, 1981

3. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 Creating The Future Disclaimer - Or Why Program Managers Burn Out - “It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than the creation of a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institutions, and merely lukewarm defenders in those who would gain by the new ones.” The Prince, Machiavelli, 1513

4. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Space Access Keystone Technologies - Open Path to Many Future Systems - Launch Vehicles Aircraft Hi Ops Tempo Propulsion Hi  V/Mass Fraction Integrated Thermal Structures/Airframe Global Transport Rapid Troop Insertion Hypersonic Cruise Space Access Long Range Strike Space Control External TPS Advanced GN&C, Hi AOA Aircraft-Like Ops Worldwide Recon Common Technologies Enable Future Systems

5. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5 Falcon SLV We’ve Studied, Studied, Studied… - Way Ahead Understood - Payload > 10K 10X Lower Cost Turnaround < 24 hrs Aircraft Reliability Reusable 2 nd Stage X-Vehicle Fully Reusable 1 st Stage Demo Payload ~10K ~3X Lower Cost Turnaround ~48 hrs ELV Reliability ARES Hybrid RLV/ELV TSTO Options Advanced Concepts Flexible Payloads 100X Lower Cost Turnaround < 4 hrs Mature Reliability Critical Flight Experiments X-Vehicles

6. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 Multiple Small Launch Vehicles Air Launch  Launch vehicle designed for simplicity  Air Launched from C-17  DARPA awarded follow-on contract for Phase 2B thru CDR – Oct 06 go/no-go at CDR/2 nd stage demo SpaceX  Launch vehicle designed for commercial ops  Ground Launched  Privately developed, DARPA purchasing flights – First successful flight imminent Fly 2008 Fly 2006 2 SLVs Ongoing in Phase 2B 4 SLV Contracts in Phase 2A 9 SLV Contracts in Phase 1

7. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 Air Launch Concept - DARPA Sponsored Demonstration - 1 st Stage Impact T = 390 sec Range = 350 nmi Orbit Insertion T ~ 360 sec Low Earth Orbit Optional In-flight Refueling Ground Hold Takeoff within ~2 hours of call-up Launch T= 0 sec Alt ~ 29,000 ft Staging T ~ 110 sec Alt ~ 160,000 ft C-17 Small payload > 1K lbs Low cost expendable < $5M Flexible air launch < 24 hrs

8. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 ARES “Hybrid” Launch Vehicle - In Study Phase - Goals – Thresholds $2000 / pound to LEO 48 hour turn time – Objectives $1000 / pound to LEO 24 hour turn time Hybrid Concept – Reusable 1st Stage flies to Mach 7 – Expendable upper stage flies to orbit – 10-15 Klb to LEO – Evolves to fully reusable 10X lower cost, 10X higher reliability – Evolves to capture all payloads Low Risk – Minimal new technology – Forgiving design region – Demo retires risk – Block development approach Expendable Upper Stages Reusable 1 st Stage

9. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Reusable Upper Stage - Proof of Concept Demo Can Be Small - Mach 0  5 Mach 7  25 25  0 Test Options Incremental Flight Test Low Speed Test High Speed Test One Layout 27.7 ft 6.4 ft One of Many Options Technology Rich

10. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10 Scaled Composites Andrews Space Space-X Northrop Gruman Rocketplane Orbital Sciences Lockheed Martin Armadillo Aerospace Spacehab HMX AirLaunch Cal Tech Microcosm USL Blue Origin Boeing Emerging Industry! Aerospace Primes! STA Aerojet XCOR P&W TGV Emerging Industry has Kindred Vision -Timing Right to Engage Private Sector - NSPD 40 - “capitalize on the entrepreneurial spirit of the U.S. private sector…” National Space Policy

11. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 A Historical Parallel  There is a close historical parallel between: – The emerging RLV industry in the early 21st Century, & – the emerging Aviation industry in the early 20th Century  Gov’t investments in the U.S. aviation industry created: – Waves of new jobs, companies, and export markets, – New services such as rapid mail and freight delivery, & – Incalculable social value to daily lives of all Americans  As air travel became safer and more affordable  Most important, a profitable & thriving aviation industry: – Revolutionized U.S. National Security by building the best fighter, bomber & transport aircraft in the world

12. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12 Emerging Industry Consensus 1. Entrepreneurial space access-military requirements synergy Low-cost development and flight, Highly operable, with High flight rates, and Rapid turn-around capability 2. Credible & serious emerging space transport companies Billionaires are putting their money into the industry 3. It is in the interest of U.S. National Security to expedite growth of the entrepreneurial space access industry 4. Industry consensus document recommended Reduce “dual-use” technology risk Provide Gov’t infrastructure to industry Use prizes to incentivize DOD goals Buy goods & services from industry

13. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 13 RASTE 2006 Conference Kicks Off Outreach to Private Sector At Birthplace of Aviation 18-19 July 2006 “NACA-Like” Cooperation

14. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 14 Summary  DOD is developing launch technology  Roadmaps to future capabilities in place  Some demos funded, more needed  DOD/entrepreneurial requirements synergy … Reaching out to entrepreneurial sector … RASTE conference 2006 … NACA-Like cooperation