1. Managing the global phosphorus cycle for long-run sustainability and food security. Ecosystems Services and Management Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 4th Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 1-3rd September 2014, Montpellier

2. Impact = PAT P opulation x A ffluence x T echnology

3. Food for a Week, Displaced Family, Chad © 2007 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2007 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

4. Food for a Week, German Family © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

5. Population density dynamics 2010-2100, B1

6. Planetary Boundaries Source: Rockstroem

7. DO WE HAVE THE SOCIAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR GLOBAL P-MANAGEMENT?

8. P - Equity

9. Uneven distribution

10. Fewer Players Source: J. Cooper, et al. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86 Projection of production volume of PR over time Morocco Is projected to dominate 3 Companies dominate global production and trade

11. The Phosphorus trilemma P – poverty P – excess

12. The Phosphorus trilemma Source: Obersteiner M, Penuelas J, Ciais P, van der Velde and I. Jansens (2013) The Phosphorus Trilemma. Nature Geoscience, Vol 6, November 2013 NO SIMPLE SOLUTION

13. Conclusion: P Trilemma The market forces will drive the system towards a P – OPEC type solution…. ….acceptable for the rich… ….and the POOR????

14. P-BAU Avoided species extinction…………….. Earth System and climate consequences Environmental and Societal Impacts P-managed + + Population Natural and social drivers

15. Planetary Constraints Scenarios Source: Rockstroem

16. 2050 - Planetary Goals and Land Use 16 Less P?

17. 17

18. Agricultural commodity prices compared to Baseline Agricultural Commodity Prices Biodiversity Biodiv & Diet

19. Conclusion: Earth System Management Incremental Policies and Technologies… will mitigate the Problem, ….. but NOT solve it! => Search for transformative technologies

20. Potentially transformational technologies Technological Solutions for scenarios storylines

21. Big P-Data for Smallholders

22. Conclusion: The Solution – Change your ToC Let’s think more in terms of “massification” of DISRUPTIVE: Technologies, Consumer behavior Policy portfolios