1. Prof. David G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey Sea-level rise: another face of climate change

2. Mitigation Sea-level rise Adaptation Response to sea-level rise > 500 yrs < 200 yrs

3. Photo – flickr / Tc7 Emissions of greenhouse gases

4. Sea-level rise by ocean warming

5. Sea-level rise by loss of mountain glaciers W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia Muir Glacier 1941 - 2004

6. Sea-level rise by loss of polar ice sheets

7. Recent sea-level rise 0.8 mm/year 2.0 mm/year 3.2 mm/year

8. Models used […] do not include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking. The projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993-2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future. For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM-3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise. {10.6} IPCC (2007) on sea-level rise

9. Ice-sheet thickness change 2002-06 Pritchard et al., Nature, 2009

10. Photo – Vaughan, Jan 2009 Ice-shelf retreat around the Antarctic Peninsula

11. IPCC 2007 sea-level rise projections

12. Possible future sea-level rise Continuation of a 1% per year increase in rate, until 2100 gives 53 cm Acceleration to 2.5% per year increase in rate, until 2100 gives 1.4 m cm But rise in last decade is 3.5 cm per year (10 times current), cf MWP1a

13. London - 1.25 million people - £80bn property

14. 1879 Flood Act Late C19 update to Flood Act Late C19 update to Flood Act Interim Defences during Thames Barrier construction Flood defences in London

15. Thames Barrier

16. Flood return at Thames Barrier Source: Dawson et al. (2005), Jones (2001), Environment Agency (2003a) 1 10 100 1000

17. Elevation (m) 0 20 40 60 80 100 300 200 100 Population (Millions) Coastal populations

18. Developing countries Photo – Flickr / Dan..

19. Developed countries

21. The 100 th Thames Barrier Closure Science and prediction Photo – flickr / jkpaul

22. Cascade of uncertainty in sea-level rise projection Compounding of error

23. A role for science in 2010? Improved quantification of risk Improved basis for sea-defence planning Support for coastal adaptation and management (Avoidance of unwarranted expenditure) Fuller evaluation of long-term impact of climate change

24. Coordinator: David G. Vaughan Information: www.ice2sea.eu Coordinator: David G. Vaughan Information: www.ice2sea.eu