1. 2012 Election Overview The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser November 16, 2012 2012 Election Overview

2. State by State Voting 2 = Obama = Romney Electoral Votes 2008 Obama 365 McCain 173 2012 Obama 332 Romney 206 2012 Popular Vote 2008 Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million) McCain 59,934,814 2012 Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million) Romney 59,142,004 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

3. Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes) Florida (29 electoral votes) Ohio (18 electoral votes) North Carolina(15 electoral votes) Virginia(13 electoral votes) Indiana(11 electoral votes) GOP nominee sits at: 3 265 Electoral Votes THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

4. New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes) Romney Net Florida (29 electoral votes) - 0.9 Ohio (18 electoral votes) -1.9 North Carolina(15 electoral votes) +2.2 Virginia(13 electoral votes) -3.0 Indiana(11 electoral votes) +10.5 GOP nominee sits at: 4 205 Electoral Votes What Happened THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

5. Swing States: Real Clear Politics – Polling Averages vs. Actual Results RCP averageActual result Net Obama over RCP average CO Obama +1.5Obama +4.7+3.2 FLRomney +1.5Obama +0.9+2.4 IAObama +2.4Obama +5.6+3.2 MNObama +5.2Obama +7.7+2.5 MIObama +4.0Obama +9.5+5.5 NCRomney +3.0Romney +2.2 +0.8 NVObama +2.8Obama +6.6+3.8 NHObama +2.0Obama +5.8+3.8 OHObama +2.9Obama +1.9 PAObama +3.8Obama +5.2+1.4 VAObama +0.3Obama +3.0+2.7 WIObama +4.2Obama +6.7+2.5 Obama average over performance +2.6 5 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

6. In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6% went toward Romney; Romney would have won: Colorado Florida Iowa New Hampshire Virginia 61 Electoral Votes 6 Total 267 Electoral Votes What If … ? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

7. Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama bump in that particular state, Romney would have won those states: Colorado 9 Florida29 Iowa 6 Michigan16 Nevada 6 New Hampshire 4 Virginia13 83 Electoral Votes 7 Total 289 Electoral Votes And What If … ? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

8. Presidential Vote by Party ID 8 20122008 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

9. Presidential Vote by Ethnicity 9 20122008 Network News Exit Polls +8 +4 -8 +15 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

10. Presidential Vote by Gender/White 10 20122008 Network News Exit Polls +11+7 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

11. Presidential Vote by Gender/Black 11 20122008 Network News Exit Polls +14+0 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

12. Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino 12 20122008 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

13. Presidential Vote by Area of Residence 13 20122008 Network News Exit Polls +2 +4 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

14. Presidential Voting by 2011 Total Family Income 14 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

15. $50K was the Dividing Line Under $50,000 $50,000 or more ObamaRomneyObamaRomney NATIONAL60%38%45%53% CO59%39%49% FL59%40%43%55% IA59%38%48%50% MI62%36%48%51% NC55%44%45%55% NH60%38%49% NV67%30%42%56% OH59%39%44%55% PA67%31%43%56% VA61%37%47%52% WI62%37%45%54% 15 2011 Total Family Income Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

16. Most Important Issue Which one of these four issues is the most important facing the country?ObamaRomney Net Obama Economy (59%) 47%51% -4% Health care (18%) 75%24%+51% Federal budget deficit (15%) 32%66%-34% Foreign policy (5%) 56%33%+23% 16 Network News Exit Polls Obama won health care and foreign policy voters. Romney won deficit voters. Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win these voters to win the election. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

17. Condition of Economy 17 Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

18. Family Financial Situation 18 Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation: Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

19. Blame for Economy? It’s Bush’s Fault 19 Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

20. Biggest Economic Problem 20 Network News Exit Polls Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

21. Candidate Qualities 21 Network News Exit Polls Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

22. Obama Cares about People 22 Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President? -Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

23. Obama is More in Touch 23 Who is more in touch with people like you? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

24. Candidate Policies 24 Network News Exit Polls Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor: THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

25. Vote for President 25 Network News Exit Polls Which best describes your vote for president today? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

26. What’s Ahead? 26 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

27. What’s Ahead? 2008201020122014 Republicans32%36%32%? Independents29%28%29%? Democrats39%36%38%? 27 Party ID 2008201020122014 Liberals22%20%25%? Moderates44%39%41%? Conservatives34%41%35%? Philosophy THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES Network News Exit Polls

28. Income Taxes 28 Network News Exit Polls Should income tax rates: THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

29. Taxes and the Deficit 29 Network News Exit Polls Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

30. Illegal Immigrants 30 Network News Exit Polls Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be: THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

31. Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s White Voters in Key States % White Voters COFLOHNV 2008 81%71%83%69% 2012 78%67%79%64% Shift -3%-4% -5% 31 Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

32. Same-Sex Marriage 32 Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage? Network News Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

33. GOP Vote 2008201020122014 Independents-8+18+5? 65++8+21+12? Catholics-9+10-2? Rural+8+28+20? White+12+23+20? Men+14+7? Suburban-2+13+2? Women-13+1-11? 33 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES Network News Exit Polls

34. Contact Information Moore Information 2130 SW Jefferson Street Suite 200 Portland, OR 97201 428 4 th Street Suite 8 Annapolis, MD 21403 503.221.3100410.216.9856 www.moore-info.com Bob Moore, bobm@moore-info.com Hans Kaiser, hansk@moore-info.com www.facebook.com/mooreinformation 34 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES