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Chamber of Mines in Zambia 24 November 2008.  Source of capital for:  Exploration  Pre-development activities  Mine Development  Investment/Expansion.

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Presentation on theme: "Chamber of Mines in Zambia 24 November 2008.  Source of capital for:  Exploration  Pre-development activities  Mine Development  Investment/Expansion."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chamber of Mines in Zambia 24 November 2008

2  Source of capital for:  Exploration  Pre-development activities  Mine Development  Investment/Expansion  Play a major role in M & A Activity  Influence Investment Flows  Determine (to some extent) commodity prices

3 3 1. Exploration, discovery, drilling, resource estimation 2. Metallurgical and mining method testwork 3. Mining and process method selection and optimisation 4. Operating and capital cost estimates 5. Economic Optimisation of economic resource (sub-economic remains behind) 6. Detailed engineering design of economic optimisation 7. Development of mining and processing schedules 8. Inclusion of the above as well as other relevant economic data (eg: fiscal measures) into a financial model. 9. Project decision and if positive, funding 10. Development

4 4 Development Schedule for a typical large copper project

5 Major ProducersMid – Tier ProducersJuniors Explorers (Type I) Entrants (“Lottery Tickets”) Adapted from Resource Stock Guide (RSG) Risks, No. of Players Rewards, No. of Winners

6 Investor (n) “One who commits capital in order to gain a financial return”  Individuals  Pension Funds  Mutual Funds  Hedge Funds  Companies  Sovereign Wealth Funds  Banks

7  General Weakening in global demand  Slow down in economic activity  Depressed economic output  Weak demand for durable goods, housing units  Slow down in construction activity  Marked reduction in investor confidence  Reduced availability of investible funds

8  Investors have become risk averse  In the current situation, investors see little “upside” in long term risky investments  The few investible funds available will only go to high quality “safe” investments  The few investors remaining will be very rigorous in evaluating their portfolios

9  Exploration is the major source of growth in the mining industry  At present, more than half of exploration activity is carried out by mid-tiers, juniors and exploration companies (US$11bn – US$15bn)  With restricted funds availability, only quality projects with the right parameters will continue  Recent reports indicate approx. US$50bn of investment is likely to be deferred between 2008/9

10 10 Geological potential for target mineral Profitability of potential operations Security of tenure & permitting Ability to repatriate profits Consistency of mineral policies Realistic foreign exchange controls Stability of exploration terms/conditions Ability to predetermine environmental obligations Ability to predetermine tax liability Stability of fiscal regime United Nations Survey of 45 companies Source: James Otto Top 10 ranked Company Decision Criteria for exploration (out of 62 factors)

11 Major ProducersMid – Tier ProducersJuniors Explorers Entrants (“Lottery Tickets”) No Major Structural Effect – Focus on Efficiency/Acquisition Focus switch from exploration to efficiency or M & A Take over, barely survive or close down Marked reduction leaving very few players

12 Central African Copper/Cobalt86% BHP Billiton57.8% Freeport McMoran82.2%

13  Pre-2008, Zambia had just started to emerge as a prime destination for investment, much more work is still ahead  In the Zambian mining sector a considerable number of assets are running old technology, this has implications on costs  The current global crisis will impact on recapitalisation and investment programmes

14  Mineral Exports still account for majority of foreign earnings  Mining activity accounts for a very large part of GDP:  Tourist enterprises (hotels, lodges, car hire)  Support industries (drilling, suppliers, construction, banks, others)  “Spin-off” industries (business services, local entrepreneurship)

15  The international financial markets are good sources of capital, but they are very sensitive  With increasing globalisation developments in one part of the world can bring far reaching consequences  In times of crisis, the winners will always be the investments and countries that pose the least risk to investors in the international markets


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