1. Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine National Aviation University Institute of Air Navigation Air Navigation Systems Department AIR TRAFFIC FLOWS PLANNING IN TERMINAL CONTROL AREAS Планування потоків повітряного руху в термінальних диспетчерських районах Performed by Serhii Biletskyi (group IAN-519) Supervisor: Cand. Sc., assoc. prof. Yuriy Chynchenko Kyiv, 2015 1

2. Objective & Tasks Objective – develop the applied technique (Matlab simulation software) to optimise air traffic flows in TMA based on normal distribution function of weather conditions Tasks: – Analyse contemporary methods of improvement of traditional air traffic flows and capacity management used by ICAO, Eurocontrol and Ukraine – Create the air traffic flows optimisation tool, which estimates delays in TMA and assesses ATCO workload – Test and validate the tool by experimental simulation in three TMAs and different operational modes 2

3. Relevance The traffic flow has been increasing constantly; There will always be a necessity in instruments that can reduce delays; One of the most problematic zones regarding the delay issue is TMA; The Eurocontrol has not paid a lot of attention to improving TMA recently. 3

4. References Analysis and Theory The data and facts for the experiment and analysis were mostly taken from ICAO and Eurocontrol documents as well as from the Ukrainian normative acts. European en-route delay statistics 4

5. The background for the experiment One of the methods of determination of delays in TMA is predicting the time of zone entry/exit using the normal distribution function PP t The declination function modelMATLAB code of the model 5

6. Mathematical basis – estimation of the ACFT entering the zone – mathematical expectation of results – mean square deviation of the received value – estimation of the ACFT leaving the zone – ATCO workload determination – Inequality level determination 6

7. Determination of probabilities ACFT #Р1Р1 Р2Р2 Is under control as planned ? 110.9988Yes 20.99980.9988Yes 30.97810.0012No 40.99980.9989Yes 50.00010.0014No 60.99860.0015No 70.99850.0065Yes 810.1066Yes The graphical results for 1 TMA Estimation of the results 7

8. Inequality levels concept Having received the time declinations, we can find the flow inequality 8

9. Conclusions It has been found that the slight wind speed or direction change can cause averagely 170 seconds of delay; The flow inequality levels were introduced, and proven that 1 level is equal to 0.09 workload change; 4 states of traffic inequality were introduced and the recommendations regarding the safety of flights were stated. Approbation of results: 1.Biletskyi S., Chynchenko Yu. V. Air Traffic Flows Planning in Terminal Control Areas // Тези доповідей Всеукраїнської науково-практичної конференції молодих учених і студентів «Проблеми навігації і управління рухом». – К.: ІАН НАУ. – 2014. – С. 14. 2.Chynchenko Yu.V., Biletskyi S., Shalimova O. Research of Factors influencing the Approach Air Traffic Cotrollers Personal Performance // Proceedings of international conference «Avia 2015». – К.: НАУ. – 2015. 9

10. Recommendations The concept of the flow inequality levels is recommended to be used: For ICAO to control and optimize the traffic flows; Within the ETFMS database to reduce delays; For educational purposes; In Ukraine, within our FMP, to plan the traffic flow on tactical level. 10

11. Thank you for attention