1. 1 CRed Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA Keith Tovey Park Lane Methodist Church 21st May 2006 Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead – the CRED Project

2. 2 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 2003 1979 CRed The loss of ice cover reduces amount of heat reflected and hence more warming.

3. 3 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

4. 4 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 Difficult Choices Ahead CRed Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2003 2004 2005

5. 5 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

6. 6 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

7. 7 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

8. 8 Waste could provide up to 15% of our energy needs Or should it go to Landfill? Is it better to recycle? How is UK doing compared to other EU Countries? But is incineration the best route – are there alternatives?

9. 9 Process description WASTE cyclonic separator particulates >10 microns 1250°C bypass damper Pyrolysis Turbine Electricity Boiler Stack bottom ash carbon recycling GasificationOxidation Energy Recovery Flue Gas Clean Up steam air Bag Filter Sodium Bicarbonate Ammonia DeNOx Catalyst Heat Condenser air Fuel (warm-up only) Feed Preparation materials recovery and recycling compacting air lock

10. 10

11. 11 The size of such plants is small compared to incinerators.

12. 12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

13. 13 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

14. 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

15. 15 Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

16. 16 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

17. 17 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

18. 18 Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

19. 19 Electricity Options for the Future Low Growth Scenario Capped at 420 TWh 33% CO 2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 62% CO 2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 68 % increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025 Mix option: 11% increase in gas consumption (cf 2002) High Growth Scenario Business as Usual 0.3 % CO 2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 54% CO 2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 257% increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 25% Renewables by 2025 20000 MW Wind 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

20. 20 Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption We must not get drawn into a single issue debate – a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed. Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation

21. 21 Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 30% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths

22. 22 Are those who say that Wind Turbines are inefficient really meaning that they have a low load factor. UK wind turbines have a much higher load factor than German, Danish and Spanish because of much higher wind speeds 27% but likely to increase with offshore turbines A car driven 10 000 miles a year has a load factor of 1 – 3% Less than one tenth of a wind turbine Definition: production (or consumption) as a proportion of rated output (consumption). Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths

23. 23 Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines. Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed Wind Energy: The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds

24. 24 Our Choices: They are difficult Wind Turbines are beautiful! » Wind Turbines are Ugly! What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?. Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia The North Norfolk Coal Field Increased Famine 30 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025 Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

25. 25 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

26. 26 Raising Awareness Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO 2 a year. A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

27. 27 Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community

28. 28 Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 52% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 18% of total demand) Would save ~ 55 000 to 60 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 32 000 hot air balloons each year. The alternative: Persuade 24 000 motorists never to drive the car again Or 240 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

29. 29 Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual ’ s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Conclusions

30. 30 Hard Choices What can we as individuals do? What can you do collectively as a Community? Visit the CRed WEB Site Sign a pledge to combat global warming help secure a sustainable environment for our children help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming help secure energy supplies for the future saving energy Adopting technical solutions Promoting Awareness Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org

31. 31 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be available on WEB from tomorrow: >follow Academic Resources Link Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room This is a challeneg for Christians and people worldwide Conclusions Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."