1. Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W Mn/DOT Travel Demand Modeling Coordinating Committee December 12, 2005 Meeting Jaimie Sloboden

2. I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W Widen I-694 from 4-lanes to 6-lanes Modification/reconstruction of 5 interchanges –I-35W –TH 10/Snelling/Hamline –Lexington –Victoria St –Rice Street Completes Un-weave the weave I-35W not part of the “plan”

3. Project Limits

4. MN/DOT’s Freeway Simulation Process CORSIM is the Current Simulation Program (being reviewed by Eil Kwon and U of M) Field Observations Base Model Development Error Checking Model Calibration –Driver Behavior Alternatives Analysis Final Report

5. Simulation Limits (physical)

6. Simulation Limits (Temporal) Duration of Congestion in Metro Area is 3 to 5 hours per peak period 1 hour simulation models in metro inadequate (Lake St Access Case Study proved this) 15 minute data

7. Simulation Limits vs. Project Limits Extended Boundary Limits required to “Feed” Traffic into Project Area Analysis of non-project elements “required” Non-project elements in simulation model may or may not be part of TSP, TIP, STIP, TPP Non-project elements may create a bottleneck impacting the analysis

8. Forecasting Process Mn/DOT Metro Guidelines Reviewed and updated Land Use Reviewed and updated Network Attributes Screen line Evaluation Post Processing applied –Base error applied to Future error Reasonableness Checks

9. Regional Model Network

10. Forecast Product Peak Hour & Daily

11. Converting Forecasts to Simulation Inputs Single Peak Hour (forecast) converted to 3-hour 15 minute data (simulation) – 694 model had 15,000 traffic volume inputs Big Math Problem! Two Approaches –Option 1: factor existing 15 minute data by peak hour ratio –Option 2: Forecast 15-minute data o-d (Crosstown model) Option 1 used for I-694

12. Sample Calculations Existing 15-minute pattern duplicated There are challenges with this process

13. Origin-Destination Data

14. Partial 15 minute Volume Data Base for Freeways

15. System Origin-Destination Data

16. Conclusions Better interaction required between Forecasting and Simulation processes –Preparing 15-minute forecasts for simulations problematic Forecasting process needs to catch up with Simulation –Qa/QC –Network coding errors –Systematic approach Simulation exposes many issues with the “Plan”, dealing with these new issues