1. INTERTANKO Athens Tanker Event 13 April 2005 Odd Anker Hassel Director, CERA CONFIDENTIAL ©2005, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc., 55 Cambridge Parkway, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 No portion of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior written consent

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3. The Big Picture ?

4. 3 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 10602-10 Geopolitical Key Uncertainties Deliver a Higher Standard of Living? Distribute Wealth "Fairly"? Uphold National/ Cultural Identity? Care for the Environment ? Cope with Demographic Change?

5. 4 Oil Supply and Demand The Global Perspective Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 20708-3 Russia China Caspian Region West Africa Coastal States India Brazil Venezuela Supply Growth Demand Growth Supply and Demand growth Canada US Middle East

6. 5 Structural Changes in the Oil Market Driven by Geopolitics, Market Conditions and Price Expectations Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 50305-5

7. 6 Driving Forces for Renewables Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 30306-46

8. 7 New Technologies— A New Perspective on Energy Security

9. 8 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 40408-9 Two Realities of Tomorrow’s World

10. 9 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 40408-12 Tomorrow’s Energy World

11. 10 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 10602-9 Predertermined Elements

12. 11 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 10602-8 Driving Forces

13. 12 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 10602-6 Energy Industry Key Uncertainties Pace and Scope Of Environmental Regulations Advances in Vehicle and Fuel Technologies Rate and Nature of Efficiency Gains Pace of International Natural Gas Infrastructure Development

14. If you have any questions about this presentation or CERA in general, please feel free to contact Odd Anker Hassel Director +47 67531034 ohassel@cera.com Beijing Oakland, CA Washington, DC Cambridge, MA Calgary Mexico City São Paulo Paris Oslo Moscow 55 Cambridge Parkway Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA www.cera.com