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Presentation on theme: "London Houston Washington New York Portland Calgary Santiago Bogota Rio de Janeiro Singapore Beijing Tokyo Sydney Dubai Moscow Astana Kiev Porto Johannesburg."— Presentation transcript:

1 London Houston Washington New York Portland Calgary Santiago Bogota Rio de Janeiro Singapore Beijing Tokyo Sydney Dubai Moscow Astana Kiev Porto Johannesburg Riga Market Reporting Consulting Events Argus Forward Curves ERCOT – Austin Texas 22 July 2015

2 Argus Media Argus Founded in 1970 Staff of over 700 worldwide, 20 offices globally Cover all global energy markets and extensively used in indexation of physical and financial contracts Crude, refined products, biofuels, natural gas, LPG, electricity, emissions, coal, fertilizer, biomass, freight, metals, petrochemicals…

3 Argus In Natural Gas and Power Argus is the leading natural gas and power price reporting agency service in Europe Argus launched North America natural gas and power cash market products and services in 2009 Argus cash market methodologies fully comply with FERC price-reporting requirements and enforces a strict code of ethics that prohibits staff from trading energy and stock in energy companies Argus operates a comprehensive compliance program, backed by regular audits from a full-time compliance officer

4 illuminating the markets Forward Curves are the market’s current assessment of the value of a commodity for a specified delivery schedule sometime in the future The current Forward Curve value is the value for which supply/demand is presently balanced for a given commodity for a given delivery period at some time in the future Forward curves are not a current prediction of future “cash” or physical market values; not to be confused with fundamental forecasts; rather they are the market’s current fair market value, given current market conditions and forward risk premiums What Are Forward Curves

5 illuminating the markets Argus receives market data from multiple sources across the entire market Argus is independent; does not participate in commodity markets Monthly granularity, “no gaps” Product tested & calibrated with market participants Argus is independent; does not participate in commodity markets Argus Forward Curves team works closely with Argus editorial Monthly granularity, “no gaps” Argus developed proprietary models and algorithms for calculating forward curves in illiquid markets Forward curves team consists of industry professionals What it is Daily risk data service Argus Forward Curve Products - Advantages Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

6 illuminating the markets Key Features & Advantages Daily price assessments - end of day; Reflects market value as of 2:30 pm EST, in alignment with Nymex settlement prices Independent and transparent market-appropriate methodology Delivery options include: Email, API, FTP data feed and third-party delivery options Applications Forward Curve Validation Mark-to-market Accounting Credit Margining Project Planning Structured Transactions Deal Valuation Capital Expenditures Project Finance Scenario Analysis Argus North American Forward Curves

7 illuminating the markets Companies Using Argus Forward Curve Products Independent Power Producers Independent System Operator (ISOs) Retail Electric & Natural Gas Providers Proprietary Trading Companies Electricity Coops Government Agencies Municipals Utilities & Investor Owned Utilities Oil and Gas Producers End Users; Manufacturing Companies Consultants Wholesale and Retail Brokers Argus North American Forward Curves

8 Argus ERCOT Forward Curves Argus Electricity ERCOT Forward Curves – Eight Locations o Trading Hubs – North, South, Houston, West o Load Zones – North, South, Houston, West o Fixed Prices & NYMEX Heat Rates ( Bid, Mid, & Offer) o 84 Months Forward o On Peak, Off peak, 7x24, 2x16, 7x8 Argus Electricity ERCOT Forward Curves – Hourly Prices o 4 Trading Hubs – North South, Houston, West o Prompt year plus a Minimum of 2 years forward o Balance of the Month hourly pricing o 5x16, 2x16, 7x8 & 7x24 - hourly pricing

9 Fixed Price Forward Curves – Mid-Points www.argusmedia.com Close of Business:07/01/15FORWARD MID MARKET POWER CURVES MarketERCOT Location/Zone:North Zone Houston Zone South Zone West Zone On Peak/Off Peak:On PeakOff PeakRTCOn PeakOff PeakRTCOn PeakOff PeakRTCOn PeakOff PeakRTC Monthly Curves: Aug-1544.2025.7534.0545.4025.5034.5044.5525.6034.1544.0025.4033.80 Sep-1530.6022.1026.0532.7522.8527.4531.9022.5026.9030.5520.6025.25 Oct-1529.2521.1024.9531.3022.6026.7031.1522.3526.5029.7020.7024.95 Nov-1528.3022.0524.8529.2522.7025.6028.7522.3525.2027.3521.0023.85 Dec-1528.3023.1525.6028.4023.8025.9527.7023.4525.4528.0520.7524.20 Jan-1630.8024.8527.4030.4525.4027.6031.0024.8527.5032.6024.3527.90 Feb-1632.1025.1528.5031.4525.6028.4532.1525.1528.5532.8024.7028.60 Mar-1632.0024.1028.0533.2524.6528.9533.9024.3529.1031.2021.6026.35 Apr-1632.9024.3028.3037.2024.8530.6034.6524.5529.2533.9021.8027.45 May-1629.8522.9526.0532.6523.3527.5532.7523.7527.8026.9521.5023.95 Jun-1635.7523.7029.6039.0524.2031.5037.3023.7530.4033.3523.2028.20 Jul-1640.7525.5532.1041.8026.1532.9041.2025.6532.3541.7026.0532.80 Aug-1652.6527.3539.8554.0528.0040.9053.2027.4540.2053.7027.9540.70 Sep-1632.7524.2028.2037.1524.7530.5534.3524.2528.9532.3523.7027.75 Oct-1630.4022.6526.1532.1023.6527.4533.4023.7528.1032.1022.3026.70 Nov-1631.0523.3526.9530.4524.0527.0531.4524.3527.6530.3022.8026.30 Dec-1630.9524.8027.6030.8025.0527.6531.7025.4028.2530.6022.6026.20

10 ERCOT Hourly Forward Curves – West Trading Hub Weekdays, On-Peak, 5X16 ERCOT West Zone Trade Hubwww.argusmedia.com Close of Business:7/1/2015 Hour Ending:789101112131415161718192021222324Block WEEKDAYS - ON PEAK (5x16) Jul-15(Bal Mo)20.7022.0023.2525.1527.2529.1533.0537.1043.7554.3559.5044.7540.8535.4531.1029.40 34.80 Aug-1522.2522.5523.5525.5528.5032.9037.0543.2558.1592.45114.6560.9040.7035.9034.2030.9543.95 Sep-1515.7515.5516.1016.7517.3528.9531.4535.1540.3051.0057.2039.8533.8031.8530.4027.3030.55 Oct-1522.85 22.5023.2023.5525.6027.0029.7035.1044.9049.8536.7530.7530.4526.6523.8029.70 Nov-1539.8534.3027.4525.9024.9023.4522.9022.4522.5522.6023.8535.0534.9028.8525.5022.8527.35 Dec-1534.9531.3528.5027.2026.8525.5024.4023.7523.2522.9023.3536.1037.2030.0527.3526.0028.05 Jan-1651.0043.6033.9031.5530.0528.0026.9526.0525.5025.3026.2034.2542.5034.6031.7528.8532.50 Feb-1656.6044.9034.2532.2530.6027.9026.1525.3024.5024.2024.9529.6045.5037.7532.2027.9532.80 Mar-1640.9538.2030.6028.9028.3527.1526.2526.4027.4027.7529.1529.8536.1041.3033.7526.2531.15 Apr-1627.6026.9526.5527.6029.0029.8030.9033.8538.1545.9551.4042.5535.0032.0035.5529.0033.85 May-1620.2020.4020.8521.8522.7024.2525.3527.7531.6038.0542.5033.5527.4525.0025.9523.2526.90 Jun-1620.7021.4022.5523.8025.4527.0029.8033.7042.2056.7062.7547.5034.0530.1528.4026.9033.30 Jul-1625.4026.4027.9529.6531.7537.1040.9046.1052.3564.2072.4054.4545.1039.3037.7035.6041.65

11 illuminating the markets http://www.argusmedia.com/Methodology-and- Reference Argus Forward Curve Methodologies Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

12 ARGUS Risk Management Forward Curves Houston, TX Date: July 22, 2015 Jay Pruett Business Development Risk Management Products Jay.Pruett@Argusmedia.com 713-429-6351 Jay.Pruett@Argusmedia.com Illuminating the markets


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