1. 1. Development of an urban CFD flow model called UrbanSTREAM to predict mean flow and turbulence at urban micro-scale 2. Urban parameterization for meso-γ scale numerical weather prediction model called UrbanGEM-LAM 3. Coupling urban micro-scale model with urbanized meso-γ –scale numerical weather prediction model 4. Development of a Lagrangian stochastic model called UrbanLS for prediction of urban dispersion 5. Validation of the fully coupled modeling prototype 6. Development a methodology for source (event) reconstruction CRTI 02-0093RD: Advanced Emergency Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and Assessment for the Urban Environment Project Lead Organization: Environment Canada. Contact: Richard Hogue, Environmental Emergency Response Division, Canadian Meteorological Centre Federal Partners: Defense R&D Canada - Suffield, Health Canada Radiation Protection Bureau, Atomic Energy Canada Limited Industry Partners: J.D. Wilson and Associates (U. of Edmonton), Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (U. Of Waterloo) Given an actual release of hazardous material into the atmosphere, emergency response is a problem that requires a delicate balance between accuracy and timeliness. Dispersion modeling in urban zones requires the resolution of all the significant local terrain features as well as the details of the ambient meteorology, horizontal and vertical. Although there are commercial off-the-shelf modeling products that claim to address this problem, most of these products use simple Gaussian plume dispersion models that are designed for flat and unobstructed surfaces, and merely superimpose the hazardous plume predictions on the urban terrain, without accounting for influences of buildings. This can result in large errors in the dispersion predictions. Furthermore, these approaches do not have access to 3D meteorological models as input, which is an integral part of this project. A framework that provides detailed real time modeling forecasts is important to make relevant decisions to save lives or prevent injury and to minimize contamination and health consequences. This framework can also be used in planning/risk assessment and post- event/forensic applications. The objective of this project is to develop and validate a prototype state-of-the-science multi- scale modeling system for prediction of the transport and dispersion of CBRN materials in the urban environment and beyond. CRTI symposium 2007 Objective Six main components of the project 1

2. Concept Prototype Mesoscale Urban scale Building scale Mesoscale Urban scale Building scale Source Type Defines Flow Defines Dispersion Chemical agent Biological agent Fluid Dynamics Models Plume Dispersion Models BCs Operational Model GEM 15km “Urbanized” GEM/LAM Cascade 2.5km – 1km- 250m urbanSTREAM CFD model MLPD urbanLS urbanEU UrbanLS dispersion model CBRN releases induces impacts over many spatial scales Need multi-scale approach where flow and dispersion are performed within “nested” domains Radiological agent Meso-  and off-line Regional NWP MODELINGDATABASESTRANSFERS MEASUREMENTS and OBSERVATIONS TEB 3D-turbulence Boundary conditions Surface fields Anthropogenic heat sources UrbanSTREAM UrbanGEM/LAM UrbanLS UrbanEU Visualization Product generation urbanBLS urbanAEU Bayesian inference for inverse source determination 3D buildings data MUSE-1 (2005) MUSE-2 (2006) CRTI symposium 2007 2

3. Prototype implementation A full prototype of the modeling system has been implemented in the computing environment of a government operations centre at the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s (CMC) Environmental Emergency Response Division (EERD). Application in test mode of hypothetical release to Vancouver and Montreal Wind vectors 3D streamlines Isosurface of concentration level of material GEM-LAM - Vancouver cascade configuration 2.5km 1km 250m Vancouver - urban classification Vertical cross-section of concentration Prototype also running over Montreal Accumulated concentration at ground level CRTI symposium 2007 3

4. Validation Joint Urban 2003: Atmospheric flow and dispersion study held in Oklahoma City in July 2003. 10 Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs): 6 day’s IOPs and 4 night’s IOPs. Measured and Predicted Concentration Source Experimental urbanEU urbanAEU urbanLS Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE) ▪ Field campaign to document the evolution of surface characteristics and energy budgets in a dense urban area during the winter-spring transition. The results are used to validate the meso-scale model’s urban surface scheme in such conditions. MUSE-2005 (February-March 2005), MUSE 2006 (January-March 2006) ▪ MUSE-2005 (February-March 2005), MUSE 2006 (January-March 2006) ▪ 4 IOPs Δθ Urban effects at night: Figure 1: θ = Potential Temperature at 50m AGL and at time 0600 LST Figure 2: Δθ = θ(Urban)–θ(Rural) at 50m AGL and at time 0600 LST Figure 3: ▪ Vertical extension of the UHI in the first 200 m ▪ Decrease of the vertical extension during the night Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 UrbanGEM validation: Oklahoma City, IOP9 From JU03, Illustration of the Urban Heat Island Fig. 1: 12 rural Stations (MESONET) Fig. 2: 13 urban Stations (PWIDS) Fig. 3: Canopy level UHI positive at night, negative at day Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Turbulent Fluxes: ▬ Q h and ▬ Q e Wind at 2m AGL UrbanStream Isopleths of concentration field, UrbanLS model CRTI symposium 2007 4

5. Inverse Source Determination and Bayesian Inference (component 6): Application to Oklahoma City using 4 detectors Actual source location: (x s, z s ) = (3.2506,1.5537) 74 Detector Source Distributed drag force representation Application examples: Localization of leakage of toxic gases and other pollutants (regulatory application) Terrorist incidents – localization of unknown source following event detection by network of CBRN sensors (“electronic noses”) as quickly as possible Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) “sniffing” out clandestine nuclear tests (133Xe - Xenon) network Recent Results N CRTI symposium 2007 5

6.  Finalize work on inverse source determination and validation over OKC  Finalize documentation of all aspects of the project  Finalize technical aspects of prototype installation over Montreal and Vancouver (validation of UrbanGEM-LAM cascade (bi-monthly basis) and test dispersion scenarios)  Examine the possibility of using the validation datasets from the New-York tracer experiment  Submitted a follow-up proposal project: CRTI-06-0198TD: "Towards an Operational Urban Modeling System for CBRN Emergency Response and Preparedness"; Aims the implementation of the prototype to 9 major Canadian cities in a technology demonstration context as well as improvements to the prototype components and further validation. Important aspect is a better linkage with the user community and focus on preparation for Vancouver 2010 Olympics. CRTI projects: Application of prototype to provide simulation scenarios to project CRTI 05-0058TD - “Unified Interoperability Solution set to Support CONOPS Framework Development -- Municipal-Provincial-Federal Collaboration to CBRN Response” Application as input to ARGOS system under CRTI 01-0080TA “Information Management and Decision Support System for Radiological-Nuclear (RN) Hazard Preparedness & Response” Application to consider precipitation scavenging under CRTI 02-0041RD “Real Time Determination of Area of Influence of CBRN Releases” Application to high resolution situations of dispersion around infected barns and biological releases under CRTI 02-0066RD “Development of simulation programs to prepare against and manage outbreaks of highly contagious diseases of animals” Links with dispersion assessment under CRTI 03-0018RD “Experimental Characterization of Risk for Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs)” Links with dispersion assessment under CRTI 05-0014RTD “Experimental and Theoretical Development of a Re-suspension Database to Assist Decision Makers during a RDD Event” EPiCC (Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities), a project under CFCAS (The Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences) which aims to better understand meteorological processes in Canadian cities. Emphasis and detailed observational field studies are being implemented over Vancouver and Montreal. Links to other projects Next steps Project now 90% complete, ends March 2008 CRTI symposium 2007 6