1. Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? Paulo Barreto Senior Researcher at IMAZON

2. 15% deforested up to 2009

3. Pastureland ocupies 75% of the area deforested

4. Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation? Predominant trends Critical uncertainties ????? Scenarios

5. What has driven deforestation?

6. Policies to occupy the Amazon Infrastructure Colonization projects Subsidized rural credit Tax breaks

7. Demand for agricultural commodities stimulated deforestation

8. What has made Brazil more effective against deforestation?

9. Reduction of leniency with crimes < 5% of the value of fines collected

10. Drought in Amazon - 2005 www.panoramio.com/photos/original/4110363.jpg 280,000 people affected

11. EE ~40% of Brazilian Emissions of Greenhouse gases Less than 1% of GDP

12. Market risk 2006 – soy moratorium Biofuels and indirect deforestation

13. New measures against deforestation in 2008 Illegal operations Credit restriction Embargo of areas illegally deforested Buyers of products from embargoed areas liable to penalties Increased confiscation

14. Confiscation of 3,000 cattle inside protected area June 2008 Auctioned after two months

15. Deforestation declined despite the increase of soy and cattle prices

16. Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation? Predominant trends Growing demand for food Demand for environmental protection Socioeconomic impacts of the application of environmental laws Pressure for economic growth. Critical uncertainties Reduction of legal forest protection? Support for the implementation of laws? Size of the clandestine beef market? Scenarios Low deforestation Medium deforestation High deforestation

17. Low deforestation scenario Low deforestation No reduction of legal protection Enforcement of environmental laws Support for the implementation of law Beef industry demanding deforestation-free cattle Ranchers organize to overcome barriers to the implementation of the law.

18. Medium deforestation scenario Medium deforestation. No significant reduction of legal protection Enforcement of environmental laws No support for the implementation of law Beef industry buys from legal deforestation. Clandestine industry buys from ilegal deforestation. Small landholders free to deforest illegally.

19. High deforestation scenario High deforestation. Reduction of legal protection Enforcement of environmental laws No support for the implementation of law Beef industry buys from legal deforestation. Clandestine industry buys from ilegal deforestation. Small landholders free to deforest illegally.

20. Low deforestation scenario Low deforestation No reduction of legal protection. Enforcement of environmental laws Support for the implementation of law Beef industry demanding deforestation-free cattle Ranchers organize to overcome barriers to the implementation of the law. REDD