1. © OECD/IEA - 2009

2. 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 198019902000201020202030 Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable!

3. © OECD/IEA - 2009 The continuing importance of coal in world primary energy demand 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Non-OECDOECD All other fuels Coal Shares of incremental energy demand Reference Scenario, 2006 - 2030 Increase in primary demand, 2000 - 2007 Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030 Mtoe 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 CoalOilGasRenewablesNuclear 4.8% 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 0.8% % = average annual rate of growth

4. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Change in oil demand by region in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 -20246810 China Middle East India Other Asia Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia Africa OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific mb/d All of the growth in oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East & India each about 20% & other emerging Asian economies most of the rest

5. © OECD/IEA - 2009 EU natural gas market outlook EU import dependency rises from 58% today to 86% in 2030 as a result of declining domestic production and increasing demand 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 20072030 Bcm Imports - other countries Imports - Middle East Imports - Africa Imports - Russia and other TE Domestic production

6. © OECD/IEA - 2009 The 11 members of GECF account for 2/3 of global gas reserves, while just 2 of them – Russia & Iran – account for over 40%. World natural gas reserves and Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) World total: 179 Tcm (2008)

7. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Cumulative energy-supply investment in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch once the economy recovers Power generation 50% Transmission & distribution 50% Mining 91% Shipping & ports 9% Exploration and development 80% Refining 16% Shipping 4% Exploration & development 61% LNG chain 8% Transmission & distribution 31% Power 52% $13.6 trillion Oil 24% $6.3 trillion Gas 21% $5.5 trillion Coal 3% $0.7 trillion Biofuels <1% $0.2 trillion

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9. World oil production by OPEC/non-OPEC in the Reference Scenario Production rises to 104 mb/d in 2030, with Middle East OPEC taking the lion’s share of oil market growth as conventional non-OPEC production declines 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000200720152030 OPEC - other OPEC - Middle East Non-OPEC - non- conventional Non-OPEC - conventional OPEC share mb/d 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52%

10. © OECD/IEA - 2009 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 19902000201020202030 mb/d Natural gas liquids Non-conventional oil Crude oil - yet to be Developed or found Crude oil - currently producing fields World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the capacity of Saudi Arabia – would ne needed just to offset decline from existing fields. 45 mb/d

11. © OECD/IEA - 2009 A sea change: world oil & gas production by company type in the Reference Scenario 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 200720152030 mb/d 0 750 1 500 2 250 3 000 3 750 4 500 2006 2015 2030 Bcm NOCs Private companies OilGas Almost 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from national companies – on the assumption that investment is forthcoming

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13. © OECD/IEA - 2008 Reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions in the climate-policy scenarios While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissions reductions, efficiency gains and deployment of existing low-carbon energy accounts for most of the savings 20 25 30 35 40 45 200520102015202020252030 Gigatonnes Reference Scenario550 Policy Scenario450 Policy Scenario CCS Renewables & biofuels Nuclear Energy efficiency 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario 54% 23% 14% 9%

14. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Total power generation capacity today and in 2030 by scenario In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change – with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role 0 1 0002 0003 000 Other renewables Wind Hydro Nuclear Coal and gas with CCS Gas Coal GW 1.2 x today 1.5 x today 13.5 x today 2.1 x today 1.8 x today 12.5 x today 15% of today’s coal & gas capacity Today Reference Scenario 2030 450 Policy Scenario 2030

15. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Cumulative European Union CO 2 savings with 20% reduction target in 2020 EU cumulative savings over 2008-2020 would represent only 40% of China’s annual CO 2 emissions in 2020 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 China ANNUAL 2020 CO 2 emissions Gigatonnes EU-27 CUMULATIVE savings with 20% CO 2 emissions reduction target (2008 - 2020) Office of the Chief Economist

16. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Total oil production in 2030 by scenario Curbing CO 2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil fuels, but even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d from now to 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2007Reference Scenario 2030 550 Policy Scenario 2030 450 Policy Scenario 2030 Non-OPEC OPEC 9 mb/d 16 mb/d mb/d

17. © OECD/IEA - 2009 How is the financial & economic crisis affecting energy investment? Difficulties in obtaining credit & higher cost of capital > Increased aversion to risk > Paralysed credit markets > Plunging share values have increased debt-equity ratios Lower prices & cash flows have made new investments less attractive Falling demand caused by economic recession has reduced urgency & appetite for suppliers to invest Office of the Chief Economist

18. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Impact of financial crisis on global investment in renewable energy Office of the Chief Economist Investment in renewables has been hit by the rising cost of credit and the fall in oil & gas prices which has reduced the economic incentive for “clean” energy... Source: NEF … since Q2 2008 investment has come down to 2006 levels 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Billion dollars 04- Q1 04- Q2 04- Q3 04- Q4 05- Q1 05- Q2 05- Q3 05- Q4 06- Q1 06- Q2 06- Q3 06- Q4 07- Q1 07- Q2 07- Q3 07- Q4 08- Q1 08- Q2 08- Q3 08- Q4 09- Q1

19. © OECD/IEA - 2009 Summary & conclusions Current energy trends are patently unsustainable — socially, environmentally, economically Energy and geopolitics will be increasingly interconnected We need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system -- Copenhagen is crucial Addressing environmental issues will substantially improve energy security Financial crisis can plant the seeds for an “energy investment crisis”