1. 2013 Tobacco Industry Seminar CROP PRODUCTION INTELLIGENCE

2. Registration 1 st - Planting Estimate 2 nd Crop assessment 3 rd Crop Assessment Customer Merchant Government Crop Size Announced Actual 145 mil kgs? Actual 175 mil kgs? Current System

3. 3 What is Crop Production Intelligence Crop Intelligence is the exercise of finding out crop volumes and quality

4. 4 WHY IS IT DONE? The Government needs to know how much volume will be produced in order to plan accordingly Merchants need to establish crop size in relation to demand

5. 5 Impact Of Wrong Crop Intelligence Economic and financial ramifications Credibility of Crop Intelligence Impacts all planning and budgets Creates anxiety

6. 6 Crop Intelligence Results in million kgs 2005 - 2013 YEARBurley Official EstimateActual 2005 105,300,000119,519,868 2006 127,800,000 124,082,421 2007 88,400,000 86,620,382 2008 145,000,000 169,248,366 2009 194,000,000 208,301,519 2010 186,600,000 193,238,632 2011 199,800,000 208,324,837 2012 134,100,000 64,676,433 2013 138,200,000 144,709,338

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9. 9 Strength and Weakness of Current Methodology STRENGTHS: The detailed TCC questionnaire covers all critical areas Personnel from all stakeholders in the industry have collective responsibility

10. 10 Strength and Weakness of methodology… continued WEAKNESSES: Registration system –This is the foundation of crop production information. –Lack of grower base intelligence linked to registration system (dual registrations/unknown number of growers) There is a limitation in human and other resources Reliance on information received by growers not quantifiable

11. 11 Way Forward Information jointly collected from the field should not be changed but published immediately More coordinated approach between all stakeholders Detailed calendar of events for planning purposes Grower base data be made available before the beginning of the exercise

12. 12 Way forward … cont Accuracy –Communication –Merchants and Grower Associations are required to know and report volumes from their contracted growers Need for a committee established from MOA, TCC, and merchants to carry out crop intelligence Male sterile seed required Seed sale volumes by ARET to be part of assessment Mechanism/Training to help farmers to measure their fields –ARET? Introduce technology?

13. 13 Using technology

14. 14 Satellite Imaging - Tobacco fields

15. 15 Government Crop management Process Registration - IPS -TCC EPA reconciles TCC/Government reconciles TCC advise Trade Trade verification Trade advises customers Crop size announced Trade, Associations Submit Government/ TCC

16. Thank you 16