1. CTB Process for Competitive Transition Projects Ming Ji CTB Program Manager NOAA Climate Program Office June 28, 2006

2. CTB Competitive Transition Projects (1) External PI-Led projects –Distinction of “transition” vs. “internal development” NCEP co-PI –NCEP’s commitment to supported projects for “testing in an operational environment” Cooperative agreement –Schedule and mile stones to ensure “transition” will take place during the project period Infrastructure support for NCEP: –Included in the proposals (up to 1/3 of resource request) –Part of the budget request for CTB

3. Lessons Learned (Oct. 2005 SAB) NCEP “sponsors” (did not work well) –Potential external PIs were requested to look for “sponsors” from NCEP in FY06 –The CPO program manager evaluated LOIs Alternative: (the JHT model) –The CTB science management team to evaluate LOIs –The CTB management will be responsible to ensure NCEP commitments to (eventually) supported projects

4. Competitive Transition Projects (2) Priorities determined by CTB science management team –FY06: Enhancing operational forecasts Improving operational models Multi-model ensemble Ocean analysis system –FY07: (enhancing forecast applications) Verification skill assessment methods Downscaling forecasts to regional-local levels Risks of high impact Wx events F’cst of mean T-P where relationships are non-linear Regional-Sectoral applications products

5. FY06 Competitive Projects DelSole (COLA), Pan (NCEP) “ Using Initial tendency errors to reduce systematic errors, identify model errors, and construct stochastic parameterizations” McPhaden (PMEL), Xue (NCEP) “The ocean component of NCEP ENSO CFS” Fox-Rabinovitz (UMD), Krasnopolsky (NCEP) “ Development of neural network emulations of model physics components for improving the computational performance of NCEP seasonal climate forecast”

6. FY07 Process Process similar to the JHT model Focused on improving CPC operational products –Attempted for a narrow list of priorities CTB science management team evaluation of LOIs (6/7/06) Encouraged 5 out of 20 LOIs (expecting 1-2 new project(s)) Assigned CPC/EMC scientists as co-PI for each prospective proposal –Supported projects will become part of overall CPC/EMC R&D plan Require clear responsibilities, tasks, milestones in each proposal

7. Funding CPO redirected program resource in FY06 for pilot transition projects CPO redirected additional program resource in FY07 to expand pilot transition projects CTB funding request in FY08 budget cycle

8. Lessons Learned Many prospective investigators are unclear on the difference between CTB “Transition” projects and other CPO “Research” projects. (to a larger extend, difference between NOAA proposals and NSF proposals) Need enhanced communication on the differences Possible avenues: AMS, AGU, CDPW, CPAS, SAB, CLIVAR, GEWEX, Seminars