1. Primary School Place Planning Children’s Services Scrutiny Committee 8th May 2013

2. Office of National Statistics Data Salford Population Change

3. The Office of National Statistics data ONS indicates an overall 58000 population growth for Salford 2010 – 2030 ONS predictions are based on birth and death data plus migration trends ONS methodology for predicting migration trends has improved to ensure greater reliability The growth mirrors national trends, Salford has the second highest growth predicted for Greater Manchester Comparison between 2008 predictions and 2010 predictions show a significant increase ONS population data prediction now correlates with primary school roll numbers and trends

4. Comparison with AGMA Table 7: Projected Total Population Change, Greater Manchester Districts. Area Projected Total Population Cumulative Change (Number of people)Cumulative Change (Percent) 20102015202020302010-152010-202010-302010-152010-202010-30 Bolton2702822943151224454.49.016.7 Bury185193201215816304.18.516.3 Manchester47050753558337651137.813.823.9 Oldham221227234246713252.96.111.3 Rochdale206210215224510192.24.89.1 Salford2302462622881631587.013.625.1 Stockport285293302320817352.76.012.3 Tameside218226235251817333.98.015.3 Trafford2172282402611123444.910.620.4 Wigan3103203313491121393.46.912.5 Greater Manchester2,6112,7322,8503,0521212394414.69.116.9 Source: ONS 2010 based sub national population projections.

5. Primary Pupil Growth ONS - 97% of the growth 2010-30 of 6200 will occur by 2020 after which it is predicted it will level off at this higher level Salford LA – In 2011 we predicted the need to form 6700 places in 32 forms of entry by 202 There is good confirmation of our predictions from the ONS trends Need to provide surplus of 5% minimum for movement of children Need to recognise that 20% of the 6200 additional children will have additional needs = 1240 pupils Around 200 of the 1240 will merit formal assessment and from this approximately 100 could need special school provision.

6. Graphs of Salford pupil trends since 1981 and our prediction to 2018 Pupil Numbers Schools Capacity

7. All areas of Salford are affected. 32 forms of entry extra needed from 2011 to 2018 – currently 89 in total. This equated to 16 x 2 form entry schools but many possible solutions are available. Based on recent Salford expenditure the cost of 16 new build 2FE schools would be approximately £128m however Government is seeking cheaper standardised design solutions and use of alternative buildings. 12 new planning areas have been developed correlating with ‘travel to learn’ patterns, community areas and natural and man-made barriers. An option appraisal for each will be developed with UV by September. That Free Schools will influence our plans as decisions are likely to be made without reference to LA and need to work with DfE to link these into our plans to maximise use. What we have learnt so far

8. 500 additional places were created for September 2011. 700 additional places have been created for September 2012 in 24 schools. 500 additional places are being created for September 2013 in 16 schools In both years this has been achieved in the majority of cases through the utilisation of existing school spaces i.e. converting non classroom space into classrooms. We installed temporary classrooms on 5 schools for September 2012 and needed 1 temporary classroom in 2011. We have identified the projects for the expansion of schools for September 2013 and held seminars for elected members, head teachers and chairs of governors to put forward their proposals. Working closely with neighbouring LAs is maintained to ensure cross boundary pressures are acknowledged. Continuing to work closely with the dioceses and schools through the Stakeholder Steering Group to ensure good communication and wider ownership of the challenge. What have we been doing?

9. Key Challenges w.e.f. 1st February 2012 Education Legislation affects ability to dispose of school sites and gain capital receipts Presumption that any newly established schools will be either Academies or Free Schools Possible late notification of a Free school application being submitted after expansion work has commenced on school sites within the same area Independence of VA schools – Governing Bodies of each separate school need to agree to any plans and may have conditions to agreements Identifying viable alternatives buildings and establishing new schools in addition to extending existing schools Balancing the needs of nursery and children’s centre provision on school sites Potential Demographic changes during the programme

10. Options for Expansion Bring back all available classroom space in schools for school use Extend existing schools with extensions Re-commission disused schools including those vacated through BSF programme Thru-schools in Secondary Buildings – until we need secondary places Acquire adjacent buildings to schools and create Key Stage on adjoining site Acquire other existing LA buildings for School use Use all LA owned brownfield sites to build new schools

12. Illustrative map of schools across all 12 planning areas which were increased for September 2012

13. September 2013 AreaPrimary SchoolProject Scope 1Peel HallCreation of additional 210 places (30 places per year group) via building extension gross external footprint of 20m2, internal alterations and reconfiguration. 2St Mark’s CECreation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via 4 class base modular / system, build. 3CadisheadCreation of additional Yr 6 class, via internal alterations and reconfiguration. 4MossfieldCreation of additional 210 places (30 places per year group) via incorporation of children’s centre accommodation and internal remodelling. 7Lewis StreetCreation of additional 210 places (30 places per year group) by using space within the existing building, the creation of playing fields to the west of Lewis Street, the creation of a sure start children’s centre and addressing the backlog of condition in existing school building. 7Christ ChurchAddress the back log of condition, as per the Asset Management Plan.

14. September 2013 AreaPrimary SchoolProject Scope 8St Luke’s RCCreation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via 4 classroom modular / system build. 8St John’s CE (utilising the former Oakwood High site) Creation of additional 210 (30 places per year group) via the development of an additional 1FE modular / system build facility to be located on the adjacent former Oakwood High site. St John’s CE would operate as a split site school.

15. September 2013 AreaPrimary SchoolProject Scope 1BridgewaterCreation of additional 105 places 915 places per year group) via traditional build. 3Fiddlers LaneThe original proposal was to acquire an external adjacent private building to facilitate extension. However, during recent contact with the owner, the feasibility of acquiring the building within the necessary timescale is uncertain (although negotiations will continue in terms of future acquisition). Therefore the alternative proposal is to create an additional 30 reception places via use of internal accommodation (the room identified is part of the children’s centre which is currently not used). 5St Mary’s RCCreation of additional 210 places ( 30 places per year group) by internal remodelling, incorporation of vacant nursery building within the site and 4 classroom extension. 6Monton GreenCreation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via modular / system.

16. September 2013 AreaPrimary SchoolProject Scope 6Westwood ParkCreation of additional 15 extra reception places via use of existing accommodation. 9St Luke’s CEThe feasibility study returned represents a high cost scheme, an we would wish to review this as a future 2014 project. Therefore the alternative proposal is to create an additional 30 reception places via internal remodelling. 10The FriarsCreation of additional (15 places per year group) via internal alteration and reconfiguration to the former Oasis Youth Centre Building. 11St Philip’s CECreation of additional 105 places (15 places per year group) via internal remodelling and extension. 12To be confirmed (potential Marlborough Road) A feasibility study was undertaken by Urban Vision relating to the potential use of a site adjacent to Brentnall Primary to provide an extension. This is not available, therefore contact will be made with Marlborough Road regarding potential to increase (existing accommodation would allow this.

17. Finance Update