1. Core Issues in Comparative Politics (PO233) Module Director: Dr. Renske Doorenspleet Associate Professor in Comparative Politics director Centre for Studies in Democratization Department of Politics and International Studies University of Warwick, UK www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/staff/doorenspleet/ www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/csd/ e-mail: renske.doorenspleet@warwick.ac.uk

2. Contents Lecture Week 8 (A)Lecture week 8 (B) Information week 9

3. (A) Lecture week 8 lecture: 1.What is Civil War? 2.How to Explain Civil War? 3.Democratization and Civil War Required reading: Brown, Michael (2001). ‘The Causes of Internal Conflict: An Overview’ in M. Brown, O. Cote, S Lynn-Jones and S. Miller (eds.) Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict. MIT Press. pp. 3-17 Hegre, H., T. Ellingsen, S. Gates and N.P. Gleditsch (2001). ‘Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992’ in American Political Science Review, vol. 95, pp. 33-48 Mack, Andrew (2002). ‘Civil War: Academic Research and the Policy Community,’ Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 5 pp. 515-525 Mansfield and Snyder (2002). ‘Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War’ in International Organization, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 297–337

4. (A) 1. What is Civil War?

5. Civil war?

6. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Civil war?

7. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Civil war?

8. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Civil war can be defined as: "a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies" James D. FEARON, "Iraq's Civil War" in Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007. See also comparable definitions in studies of Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Nicholas Sambanis

9. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Civil war can be measured by two indicators: 1.the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state or to force a major change in policy 2.at least 1,000 people must have been killed in total (per year) with at least 100 from each side

10. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Civil war: first indicator

11. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Civil war: second indicator at least 1,000 people must have been killed in total (per year) with at least 100 from each side Data set: Correlates of War (see www.correlatesofwar.org/ )

12. Problem 1: Concept is too broad Concept includes many different forms of violence -short-lived coups (Argentina in 1955) -organized civilian massacres by the warring parties (Burundi in 1972 and in 1988) -guerrilla warfare combined with genocide (as in Cambodia and Guatemala) -factional conflict in the military (Central African Republic from 1996 to 1997) -combinations of criminal and political violence (Chechnya and Algeria in the late 1990’s) -self-determination struggles (Sri Lanka since 1983, Bangladesh in 1971 ) -warfare between large, well-organized armies (China from 1927 to 1949, El Salvador from 1979 to 1992, Mozambique from 1976 to 1992, Croatia in 1991, and Angola from 1975 to 2002) -Combination of all the above: Congo

13. Problem 2: Measurement is difficult arbitrary indicators unreliable measurements – poor data also because of politics

14. Problem 3: Muddy Concept, Muddy Measure  Different data  Table from Sambanis (2004)

15. (A) 1. What is Civil War? Why bother about definitions and measurements?  we want to explain! (and –possibly- be able to stop civil wars)

16. (A) 2. How to explain Civil War? Most people would say that civil wars are the result of some mix of grievances & opportunities (to do something about your grievances) Conventional wisdom now is that economic factors cause civil wars See also required literature for lists with factors: Brown (2001), Hegre et al. (2001), Mansfield and Snyder (2002)

17. The New “Orthodoxy:” CH & FL Models Collier and Hoeffler (2004) and Fearon and Laitin (2003) Explanatory Variable Relationship to War Onset Income (poverty or state strength) - Population size + Prior war/peace duration- Economic growth- Natural resource dependence+ Ethnic “difference”+ Political freedom- Other: Political Instability; New State; Terrain; Dispersion; Diasporas “Assorted” coefficients

18. Problem 4: Uncertainty about theory No clear theoretical justification for the set of explanatory variables

19. Problem 5: Combined sources of uncertainty Empirical results assume that we know what we mean by “civil war” – but we don’t (see “problem # 1”) Empirical “robustness” depends on how we define civil war (dependent variable) and on how we define independent variables to test theory

20. Example: fractionalization Big debate in the literature over whether or not civil war is more likely in ethnically diverse countries If “diversity” means “fractionalization” then the answer is: –No, if civil war means 1,000+ deaths –Yes, if civil war means >100 deaths

21. Example: fractionalization Fractionalization is the most common measure in the literature (but again: problems with definitions and measurements!) –But what is a group? (India: L-elf = 0.79; R-elf = 0.31) –Groups change over time, but FRAC does not change –Population size does not tell you if there is political exclusion or which ethnic groups are politically relevant –Geographical dispersion of groups matters; minority territorial concentration is almost a necessary condition for separatist civil war

22. (A) 3. Democratization and Civil War?

23. (B) Information week 9 Homework week 9 Preparation lecture: read the literature Preparation seminar: a.What are the concepts and measurements of democracy and (civil) war as used in the work of 1) Brown 2) Hegre et al. 3) Mansfield and Snyder? Strengths and weaknesses? b.What are the main problems with academic research about civil war and the policy community, according to Mack? c.Questions about required literature?